11/5 NFL Prize Picks
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Let’s look at the Thursday Night NFL showdown!
Green Bay (-5)
@
SF 49ers (50.5)
Don’t stress each individual player. Don’t make it that hard on yourself. Find your story on how the game will play out and apply that across the board. If you make sense of the game flow needed for the outcome you will believe will happen then all the players should neatly fall into line.
Here is an interesting matchup that has been fire over the years. The Pack has struggled in the last decade going West on the road, only winning in SF 1 of the last 5 times. This year should be different. With the 49ers trading off some key players, and most of the rest injured. Jimmy G, Deebo, Mostert, Kittle, Coleman, Wilson… and that is just the Offense. There is no reason why GB doesn’t win this game handily, but ya know Tampa almost got beat by the Giants last night so what do I know! Green Bay moves mostly through their key players, Rodgers-Jones-Adams, while SF rotates whoever is healthy into the back field and gets creative with the short pass game to try to dominate time of possession and wear out the Defense. The Niners have a shot here with travel on a short week always harder on the visiting team and the Pack’s biggest weakness being against the run. If San Fran can field enough players to compete it might be a closer game than some think.
For PrizePicks you need to select 2, 3, or 4 players and choose if they will go over or under their projected point totals. Basically playing by standard PPR fantasy scoring on most platforms. Make your selections, choose your entry amount, and win real money on the spot when you are correct! It’s the latest fantasy sports game and one of the most fun around!
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The Breakdown
Aaron Rodgers (22.8) 270 3TD
This seems like more of a floor stat line than a median right now. Comparable QBs against the Niners this year with quality offenses with a big WR were: Murray (27) and D. Hop(29), Fitz (27) and Williams (22), Russ (29) and Metcalf (40). Rodgers and Adams fit this mold so smash the OVER on em both. Reminder you can’t pair a QB with one of his WR or TE so choose your strategy wisely.
Nick Mullins (16.5) 215 2 TD
GB has given this up to 4 of 7 QBs they have faced but Mullins is by far the least likely out of all those 7. Given GB sucks against the run I would put this game firmly in the hands of the running game and without Deebo and Kittle his targets are lackluster. He has gone over this total in 2 of 3 games played this year but those were against SEA and NYG. I’m going UNDER
Davante Adams (21) 7 for 80 and a TD
It’s amazing to think those numbers look sad if that’s all he hits in a week isn’t it? In his 4 games at full health he is averaging 10 catches for 116 yards and 2 TD’s a game. Come on now. Don’t overthink this, see above about similar matchups for the previous 49ers opponents. OVER
Brandon Aiyuk (14.5) 4 for 45 and a TD
I actually could see him hitting this without the TD. in his last 2 games as the primary target he has had 6 and 8 catches for 115 and 91 yards respectively. I’m not sure how defenses will adjust to him with Kittle not drawing targets. Only Randall Cobb has managed to do this since the bye against the Pack and before that only Sanders in NO and then Theilen in week 1 have managed to do so. GB is tough against the WR, so I am UNDER here with only the TD able to get him over.
Robert Tonyan (10) 4 Catches 60 yards
They have used Tonyan a bunch and really have turned the corner as an offense that actually utilizes the TE. He’s averaging over 4 targets a game and has been a solid redzone threat, but most of his TDs came without Adams in the lineup. I expect Jones to sit out yet another game, Williams is out, Dillon is out… With only Ervin and practice squad guys healthy in their back field I might expect more shotgun and Tonyan used to block more than normal. I am going UNDER here when you add that into the 49ers being solid in the middle of the field against TEs.
Ross Dwelley (8) 4 catches 40 yards
Obviously the Niners historically throw to the TE. Dwelley has been effective in relief of Kittle in the past and I doubt Reed gets activated off IR by game time. This shouldn’t be too hard to pull off and a good chance of a handful of redzone targets means a threat to score for him is in the cards. I’m on the OVER here as the GB defense will try their best to control the run while not needing to worry about Kittle.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6.5) 2 catches 45 yards
Lazard is still out and there will be a complete lack of running back depth so I expect a few more shots than normal to MVS downfield and maybe a few gimmick run plays he could get involved in. SF is solid against the middle but do give up the long ball on occasion. I see this as a pretty easy OVER.
Kendrick Bourne (11) 4 catches 70 yards
I just can’t see this number hit without a TD. Green Bay really handles the WR positions pretty well and he is so streaky that he barely has this upside in any given week. I’m on a LOCK of an UNDER.
For the Kickers, I’m on the just barely over 8 side for Gould and the barely over on the 8.5 for Crosby.
Good Luck!!!
-Jonny Danger
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