eSports – LoL NEST 11/20/20

by Chris Emrick

Nest Returns tomorrow morning at 1 am with a 3-game slate that we get to sink our teeth in. There are some interesting matchups to kick this off. Let’s get into the games with some general quick-hit thoughts. 

For all these please refer to the table’s and spreadsheets for match data from earlier in the tournament. 

Fun Plus Phoenix (EVEN) Vs Royal Never Give Up (-135)

Both of these teams have looked really bad in their losses, but really good in the wins. That’s been the story for this RNG team, after getting manhandled in the first game of their opening series against VG, they came back and played a super clean game that made them look unstoppable. Predictably they looked awful in the third game and threw that series. It was more of the same against iG and all things considered if it wasn’t for a miss click in game three by Captain they likely lose that series as well. 

For Betting: Both teams have been pretty bad at securing first blood, but amazing at first tower. FPX secured it in each game played and RNG locked it up in all but one. As I was putting together the data I was pretty excited to see the odds on the first tower for FPX at -115. My excitement quickly faded when I saw they were going against a team just as good. 

The wager I’m most interested in here is the O2.5 Games (-110) As discussed while both teams have shown the ability to play super clean, but have inexplicably disappeared at times as well. Making it less likely for either side to have a sweep. Both sides were pretty effective at getting the first Dragon as well. 

For DFS: 

RNG: RNG has the lowest Kills Per Win on the entire slate (16) w/ FPX allowing (20) per loss which ranks them tied for third with this same RNG team. That doesn’t bode well for stacking this team if you think they get the win. What’s worse if you look at this as a three-game series, their kills in losses have been awful. Hoping for the sweep would be your best bet because they’re not going to come close to replacing the 20 point GNP bonus in a three-game series. Which as you can see by the odds is something the books seem to be thinking will occur. Additionally, parts of this team have had some issues being involved in the kills. Gala has the lowest ADC KP% by a large margin, and in fact, he actually has the lowest of any player on the slate. My exposure will be sparing to this squad, what I will have will likely be 3 man stacks that include Cryin/XLB and the team slot. Both Crying and XLB have KP close to 80% averaging 4 kills per game. 

FPX: Ranked 4th for kills per game in wins FPX is another team that I’ll be playing light. If I had to make a pick I like FPX to win more than RNG, and I’ll have more exposure to them. The Team slot is another strong pick here being that they’re one of the better first blood teams. That also allows us to put position players from other teams that might have higher kill totals in their position slots. Any of the members from FPX are viable but my favorite plays are Youxin as he’s performed strongly even in losses, and Lwx who has carried them in wins and leads the slate with an 89% KP

Rogue Warriors (-240) Vs LGD Gaming (+175)

For Betting: This is one that I’m likely skipping altogether. I tend to bet more towards the underdogs and take the + odds, but RW has looked pretty good so far this tournament but not -240 good. In the First Blood/Tower department both teams have been decent in First Blood 4/5 and 4/6, while average at First Tower 3/5 and 2/6. The only item that has some interest from me is RW First Dragon (-120) they were able to secure it 3/5 versus LGD 2/6

For DFS: This game is going to be popular and rightfully so. RW has huge kill numbers in wins and losses and were also able to propel the other team far above both their averages. They’ll have to do just that here as LGD Kills Allowed in Losses were 19 only WE were lower. I love stacking LGD to be a bit different and hoping they pull off the upset, it will make for far fewer chops. In any event, a 4 stack from this game seems like it’s likely to be in the optimal lineup. 

RW: It’s hard to figure out which player you leave out of your stack here. Zwuji needs to be involved as does Ley, but beyond that, I think you just include players based on the other side you’re stacking. For example, if you are going RW/FPX then BoWen is easier to leave out. If you were going RW/RNG then Youdang is one that can be replaced by XLB. 

LGD: We’re still unsure of their lineup. Their Jungle whether that ends up being Kui or Flora both have done well in the games in which they were involved. Cult’s play hasn’t been outstanding, but his fantasy numbers have been. He’s tied for the highest kills for Top Lane and has a comparable Kill Participation. While the assist numbers have lagged the hope would be the guys on the other side of the Rift help bring those up.

Team We (-170) Vs Edward Gaming (+125)

For Betting: With beishang out handling a family matter WE will bring in frigid to take his place. He has next to no experience only having 8 games logged in his career from summer. While most of the players in this tournament have limited experience, this is an extreme case. I lean toward EDG for that reason and will take the plus odds on the series. EDG was pretty average at getting their objectives, 3/5 for both First Blood/Dragon and 2/5 for Tower, whereas WE was one of the best teams. 4/5 First Blood and Dragon and perfect on the tower. How this changes with a new piece is worth considering. For me, I’m looking at taking WE for First Tower in each of the matches and hoping the team’s plan isn’t adversely impacted by the new jungle at least in that respect. (-130)

For DFS: While all eyes will be on the RW/LGD game this EDG team might go overlooked. Their kill totals in wins have been on par with that of RW only trailing them by 1 kill per game. Additionally, they gave up large totals in both of their losses (28,19). This might be a sneaky team to pair up w/ the RW/LGD side of the stack. The only issue is that WE were the lowest producing team both in Kills For and Against. Adding the new Jungle position maybe changes that a bit. We saw when Garvey played out of position for LGD their numbers jumped, but of course, that’s also possibly because they were playing WE. 

EDG: From Top to Support each one of the members of EDG had very strong and similar KP. 60 and the lowest and 70 at best. One player that can be prioritized as a result is BBD. He almost has twice as many kills (38) as anyone else on the roster and the second-highest of any players, trailing only Zwuji’s insane 52. This does come at a cost of having half the assists but kills score better so I’m making sure he’s part of my EDG stacks. 

WE: I’m going to pass on Frigid. The lack of any type of data on the guy makes it hard to make any true assessments of what we’re going to get. Additionally, all the other rosters have attractive fantasy plays that can be in stack over him. If you’re looking at WE here you’re basically believing that EDG will drag them to a high scoring game. That’s possible, and if it’s going to happen it will likely be with Shanks/Jiumeng doing most of the heavy lifting. That’s where my stacks would start and possibly end. Missing/Coten are fine, but I’ve thought Coten’s play has been super suspect through the tournament , and now with a new Jungle he might be someone that struggles even if his team is successful. 

Favorite Plays In Order
RW/LGD
EDG
FPX
RNG
WE

Predictions 
FPX wins 2-1
Rouge Warriors Win 2-1
EDG Wins 2-1

Most fantasy points come from Kills and Assists. It’s just as important to have a team that allows those points as one that scores them. Think of it in football, we can target bad defenses no matter who is on the otherside.