Week 14 Monday Night Showdown

We’ve been pretty close the last few weeks. Whether it be the regular slates or the single games we just haven’t seemed to put it fully together. I will take responsibility for the Cam Akers fade line from last week. I told Danger to put it in there, knowing that it could be a mistake. I stand by the decision but was amazed that his ownership was only 40%. I felt like it would be closer to 60/70 and as such hindsight was that it wasn’t a right play. However, that’s what this game is sometimes, making decisions with incomplete information. In doing so we’re going to have some misses, and we’re going to have some hits. Hopefully, are hits are good enough to out weight the misses. 

Ravens @ Browns (+) O/U 45

The line here is a bit of a surprise. For the most part, the Browns have been pretty good recently. Even the defense was able to hold their own while missing their top player for several weeks. On the other hand, the Raven’s have really been suspect for most of the year. Unable to truly replicate some of the dominating success that they had last year. There are several fairly straightforward plays tonight, but a whole lot of question marks floating around them. Additionally what we have to worry about is the weather. 15-20 MPH winds w/ gusts up to 30mph and cold. 

Nick Chubb ($10,200)-

Probably my favorite play on the slate. We’re looking for 20+ points from Chubb and he’s done a good job of delivering just that this year. Having exceeded that total 4 of 7 times he played a full game, twice falling just short. That type of floor inspires a bit of confidence when putting him in either your flex or cpt spot tonight. Since returning from injury we’ve seen him carry the ball no less than 18 times on the ground, a few targets here and there, and scoring 3 TD’s in those 4 games. Add to that he’s scored twice in 2 of 7 games gives you a player with a solid floor, role, and ceiling within the offense. 

Kareem Hunt ($7,200)-

I’m not sure how many times I’m going to allow Hunt to burn me this year before I quit him. But for that very reason, I find him interesting tonight. He’s been getting 10-20 touches between runs/receptions even with Chubb’s return. What he hasn’t been doing is being effective with those touches. That type of inconsistency is exactly the type of thing that will steer people away and make him a solid GPP target. We don’t need Hunt to smash every week, just hopefully, maybe this week. 

I’ve discussed this before, but the tandem of Hunt/Chubb play just fine together and I think it’s an interesting GPP strategy. This duo was able o help some poor shlub become quite a bit richer back in week 2. (It wasn’t me, but I did play it.)

Baker Mayfield ($10,000)-

The strength of the Raven’s defense this year has been their secondary. If they’re limiting the production of the WR’s it’s going to trickle down to Mayfield. Combine that with him not exactly being the most accurate of passers and I have a player I’m going to be pretty light on in builds tonight. Just like Hunt, he’s had some larger pop-off games this year and as such he’s still in play. My thought is that for Cleveland to win this game it isn’t going to be some massive pop off game like we saw last week.

Jarvis Landry ($9,400)-

The weather is the one thing that has me concerned here. We saw this offense completely bottle up and play run heavy when it wasn’t favorable. Those games didn’t mesh well with Landry as he saw single-digit fantasy points. When the Browns found themselves in better weather situations we saw Landry get double-digit targets and have to monster fantasy games. The price he has tonight is almost so high that you’d need one of those larger games from him. The thing for me is that I believe the Browns win tonight, and if I believe they win I’m thinking they’re going to score some points. Chubb is the guy that I want but I’m going to mix in some Hunt/Landry alongside him to get more exposure to the offense. 

With Austin Hooper out it does open up a path for Harrison Bryant ($4,200) and David Njoku ($1,000) Their current snap counts, roles in the offense, and even accounting for Hooper’s 2-3 targets neither of them is a must play. I’d lean towards Njoku simply due to price. 

The Kickers- 

Tonight given the nature of the game both Cody Parkey ($3,400) and Justin Tucker ($3,800) make for value plays within the game. I’m not looking to roster both, but will have exposure to one or the other in a majority of my builds. 

Lamar Jackson ($11,800) 

The safety net that is Lamar’s floor cannot be ignored. The price itself is hard to handle but no one else has the ceiling that Jackson has, even if he hasn’t been able to reach it this year. We’re well aware of what he can be and that’s enough to find his way onto most lineups. 

Mark Andrews ($8,800)

Someone has to catch the ball. Why not Andrews? He smashed the last time these two teams played and is coming off the Covid-19 list, meaning I’d guess he’s fresher than he would normally be this time of year. His season has been rather disappointing but less so than the other really pass-catching option. The Browns have had their issues with Tight Ends so far this year. 

Marquise Brown ($7,400)

An uptick in targets has seen his production start to rise. The Two touchdowns don’t hurt either. I’m hesitant here though. Just like Landry’s production the Browns allowed far less WR production over the stretch of games where the weather was less than ideal. Which it will be again tonight, although I don’t believe they expect any rain or snow. This secondary has been exploited much of the season and Brown seems to be surging coming into this game. 

Raven’s RB Situation-

It’s just a mess. It’s hard to play any of these guys because they simply aren’t on the field enough. If I had to pick I’d probably prefer taking a chance on Gus Edwards ($5,200) or Mark Ingram ($2,800) just because they’re cheaper and I can see more scenarios where they pay off those prices. JK Dobbins ($8,200) will need to find the end zone or rush for over 100 yards to do. Completely possible, but made more difficult by the timeshare they find themselves in. 

Prediction

Browns 24 – Ravens 17

Mainly looking 4-2 or 3-3 Stacks for this game.