eSports KeSPA
It feels good to have some LoL in the DraftKings Lobby. It hasn’t been that long, but it’s been too long. The KeSPA cup will give us our first look at some of the new rosters and new items as well. Starting off DK has decided to do the round-robin format that players accumulate scores in more than one game. I personally enjoy this format as a nice change of pace and certainly much prefer it as opposed to the 2 game slates we might have been subjected to otherwise. What are they playing for? First place pays the equivalent of 35,000 dollars so it isn’t an enormous price pool, but it’s a decent amount for sure. In regards to betting, I’m likely look to take the underdogs in most situations as there is the question of how serious these teams will take the tournament, specifically in the early games.
Slight change to the bottom lane for AF. The defending KeSPA champion was a strange team during the 2020 Summer Split. Almost always beating teams they were supposed favored against, but never able to upset the teams that were favored against them. That of course doesn’t really matter as this team looks different than it did in summer. Bang returns to the LCK and is paired with Lehands in the bottom lane. While Dread moves into the starting lineup, Kiin and Fly return from last year. The glaring weakness here is Dread, he was dreadful last year and would be the first player I’m looking to exclude in any of my team stacks as I think AF is likely to win both of their opening matches.
Day 1 Opponents: Sandbox / DRX
The defending world champions remain mostly intact with the exception of their top lane. Khan comes over and replaces Nurguri, but Chasy is also listed on the KeSPA roster. I’d be surprised if they played him but stranger things have happened. A little background on Chasy he has 49 pro games under his belt playing in the Korean Challenger league. He was part of their Summer champion and made a role swap from Mid to Top.
Day 1 Opponents: Redforce / DRX
Damon may have brought back almost their entire rosters, but DRX did the exact opposite. Only Pyosik returns from the team that finished second in the LCK summer. Replacing the starters are for the most part academy players that don’t have a ton of history. This team is going to be viewed as a relative unknown.
Day 1 Opponents: AF/DWG
Sandbox made a few changes. Most notably Effort coming over from T1. Still, this lineup looks fairly weak, as it was last summer. Additionally, while we can assume Route/Effort start Sandbox is one of the few teams with more than one position at risk for subs.
Day 1 Opponents AF/Redforce
Formally Team Dynamics we have some pretty major changes to the roster from last summer. Deokdam and Rich return, but they’ve added on Kellin, Peanut, and Bay. Of all the teams playing on day 1, Redforce in my opinion has one of the stronger offseasons. It will be interesting to see how the team plays together as DYN had moments last year where they looked crisp, followed but some really flat performances. We will see if a veteran presence can bring some additional consistency.
Day 1 Opponents: DWG/SB
DFS Thoughts:
Damwon will be the most popular and with good reason. You’ll have to get creative with their prices as they’re the most expensive across the board.
AF looks like they’re going to be second most popular, I’m of the mind that I’d rather be a little underweight on them.
NS Redforce feels like a team that will go under looked. Maybe I’m wrong and they’ll be used to make the Damwon salaries work. Even though they play each other.
Sandbox avoids having to play Damwon, but I’m still not high on this team overall. I’m likely to have the least exposure here.
DRX Why not? We’ve seen crazier things happen, while the GPP’s aren’t such a size that you need to get crazy it doesn’t help. It’s not about what you think WILL happen. It’s about what you think could possibly happen.
Damwon (-750 vs Redforce (+425) – I’m going to take a stab at Redforce here. It’s the first game of the tournament and they might catch a less motivated Damwon by surprise.
Sandbox (+135) vs Afreeca (-185) – While I’m not crazy about AF, I’m even less so about Sandbox. I’ll take AF here.
DragonX (+295) vs Damwon (-475)- Playing DRX in a 12 dollar GPP and betting on them here are two different things. I’m going with Damwon although I won’t be wagering on this match.
Redforce (+130) vs Sandbox (-185) – I’m taking the + odds on a Redforce team that I think is better.
Afreeca (-325) vs Dragon X (+230) – I will skip this one as well, but Afreeca is the prediction.
I’ll have kill tracking sheets and more in the coming days.