Week 2 Fantasy Football Recap: The Air-Raid-ers Offense
Can you believe the NFL regular season is already more than 10% over? Two weeks in, NFL offenses everywhere are struggling … except the Saints. Meanwhile, top fantasy football options are dropping like flies. Just like last week, I’m here to look at the most important stats and storylines from Week 2, plus a look ahead to next week’s DFS slate. Let’s get started!
Top Performances
Alvin Kamara: 43.0 Half-PPR Points
My sincerest condolences to anyone who had to face Kamara this week — I myself was a victim of his massive outing in my longest-running home league. With four total TDs and 180 yards, Kamara outproduced entire NFL teams on Sunday.
In fact, the whole Saints’ offense just keeps cooking, with 22 more points than any other team in the league after two weeks. Klint Kubiak has revolutionized their scheme, and Derek Carr looks like his 2016 MVP candidate self. Every piece of this offense, from Kamara to Carr to Rashid Shaheed to Chris Olave, looks set to smash the rest of the season.
James Cook: 28.0 Half-PPR Points
In 2023, Cook scored just two rushing touchdowns. He matched that total on Thursday night, adding a 17-yard receiving TD as well. What’s most exciting is that one of those touchdowns was a one-yard rush. In 2023, the Bills scored 14 rushing touchdowns from within the five-yard line; Cook claimed just one. Cook has also played both of the Bills’ snaps within the five-yard line so far this season, up from a 35% snap share inside the five in 2023.
Cook was sixth in the league in scrimmage yards last season, but a lack of touchdowns held him back. If he can hold on to this increased touchdown equity, he will finish as an RB1. This is especially true given that the Bills’ new-look offense is leaning more on the run, with the sixth-highest rush rate in the league.
Marvin Harrison Jr.: 27.0 Half-PPR Points
The fourth-overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft appeared in the “Duds” section of this article for his NFL debut, so it’s great to see him bounce back with a vengeance. MHJ scored 20 points in less than half a quarter on Sunday, slowing down as the game went on to finish with four catches for 130 yards on two TDs.
The scary thing is, Harrison’s huge day could have been even bigger, as he and Kyler Murray failed to connect not once but twice on back-shoulder throws in the end zone. He won’t score two touchdowns every week, but Harrison is now looking a lot more likely to pay off his early second-round ADP than he was a week ago.
Biggest Duds
Travis Kelce: 1.1 Half-PPR Points
After a disappointing Week 1 performance of just three catches for 34 yards, Kelce’s production somehow got worse in Week 2. He now has 6.0 Half-PPR points for the season, fewer than fantasy studs like Will Dissly and Brenton Strange.
However, there is still hope for Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. His usage has been fine, as he actually leads the Chiefs with 54 routes run (per PFF). He also had a 40-yard reception called back for an irrelevant holding call on Sunday, without which he would not be appearing in this column. Kelce’s days as the clear TE1 are over, but I wouldn’t bench him unless you have another great option; he should still perform like a top-12 TE the rest of the way.
Anthony Richardson: 9.86 Half-PPR Points
There are definitely other players who could have gone in this spot. Richardson outscored a handful of quarterbacks, including fantasy starters like Jared Goff and even Josh Allen. However, it feels only fair that I highlight Richardson’s bust game after highlighting his boom last week.
The issue is that Richardson is still wildly inconsistent as a passer: His 49.1% completion percentage so far this season is the worst in the league, and his -10.4% completion percentage vs. expected only beats out the now-benched Bryce Young. In Week 1, over half of his fantasy points came on three plays (two huge deep passes and a goal-line TD rush). In Week 2, he didn’t have those big plays, and his production suffered accordingly. Of course, every quarterback has bad fantasy outings. The question is whether this is a one-off or if Richardson’s passing inconsistency will continue to translate to fantasy inconsistency.
Ja’Marr Chase: 5.5 Half-PPR Points
Through two weeks, Chase has just 10 catches for 97 total yards and zero touchdowns. Even with Tee Higgins sidelined, he has just a 17% target share. Even more concerning, all 11 of his targets have come with him as the first-read on a play: Either Joe Burrow isn’t working through his progressions, or Chase simply isn’t getting open.
There are a lot of potential reasons for this slow start. The Bengals have a history of slow starts, Chase sat out the entire preseason, and they have faced tough defenses in back-to-back weeks. But for managers who drafted Chase in the first round, none of these excuses help. I don’t recommend selling Chase for pennies on the dollar, but I’m not rushing to trade for him, either.
Sneaky Storylines
The Raiders Have Abandoned The Run
Two weeks into the season, NFL teams are leaning on the run. Only seven teams have a pass rate above expectation, and only two are more than 3% above the baseline. Of those two pass-happy teams, one (the Bengals) isn’t a surprise, but the other is: The Raiders rank second in the league with a pass rate 5.7% above expected. This is a smart decision, as they have been remarkably inefficient running the ball with -0.62 EPA per rush play, the lowest in the league by a country mile.
Assuming it keeps up, the fantasy implications of this are obvious. Zamir White, who has been serving as the Raiders’ early-down back, will struggle mightily to maintain fantasy relevance. But this is a major boost to Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, and even Gardner Misnhew and Jakobi Meyers. After a quiet Week 1, Adams exploded in Week 2 for 110 yards and a TD on 11 targets. Meanwhile, Bowers ranks first among all tight ends with 17 targets … and he isn’t even running a full route share yet. If the Raiders keep slinging it early and often while the rest of the league trends the other way, Adams should put up another WR1 season, while Bowers could compete to be the TE1.
The Titans Tried To Get Tyjae Spears Involved
After Week 1, in which Tony Pollard saw 19 touches to just eight for Tyjae Spears, Titans Head Coach Brian Callahan said that they wanted that split to be more even going forward. If you just glance at the box score from Week 2, this looks like nothing but coach-speak: Pollard out-touched Spears by even more, 22 to eight.
However, Spears suffered an ankle injury in the second half of this game. In the first half, Spears had six carries to Pollard’s seven, and he actually had five more snaps than the former Cowboy. Given that the Titans have also struggled to move the ball so far this season, I’d consider selling high on Pollard before Spears returns from his injury.
D’Onta Foreman Starts For The Browns
This one didn’t go entirely unnoticed, as I’m sure plenty of Jerome Ford managers were shocked to see Foreman lead the team with 14 carries to Ford’s seven. That was especially surprising given that Foreman played just one solitary snap in Week 1.
The reason I’m calling this “sneaky” is that I’ve seen very little buzz for Foreman as a waiver pickup this week. It is weird that he went from not involved at all to the team’s lead rusher for no apparent reason, but he was still clearly the team’s top rusher. He also has a history of being very efficient with his carries. Even on a struggling Browns offense with Nick Chubb looming, he’s worth adding, while Ford is a must-bench for now.
Early DFS Plays
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
If I’m going to argue that Bowers might be the TE1 for the rest of the season, I might as well put my money where my mouth is. In a matchup with the flailing Panthers, Brock is still outside the top three most expensive TEs on all sites. He is a great play at that price every single week.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
Speaking of the flailing Panthers, they have officially made the move from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton. I don’t think the impact of this move can be overstated, as Young was the worst starting quarterback in the league, while Dalton was still a solid quarterback the last few times we saw him (he finished fifth in PFF Passing Grade in 2022 and led the Panthers to 27 points in his lone 2023 start).
With that in mind, I’m going to jump on Johnson as a value play. Overall, Johnson has a solid 21% target share in his first two games with the Panthers. But if we look just at non-garbage time (plays with the Panthers still within 21 points), that number skyrockets to a massive 37% — although the number of plays where the Panthers were within three touchdowns of their opponents is a hilariously small sample, so this should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, that level of targets from a competent QB should allow Johnson to easily pay off his bargain-bin price.
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
With Tua Tagovailoa out, De’Von Achane is going to see a simply obscene amount of screen passes. He already ranks 19th in the league in receiving yards. That’s among all players, not just running backs. Especially if Raheem Mostert also remains out, the Dolphins should feed Achane early and often. We all know what he can do with just a few touches, and he can certainly break the slate with a large workload.
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football die-hard and expert. To ask him questions or complain about his takes, find him on Twitter @Tchmyz.