Week 5 Fantasy Football Recap: Ja’Marr Chase Is Insane

Top Performances

Ja’Marr Chase: 36.3 Half-PPR Points

With his second massive game of the season, Chase is now the undisputed WR1 in all formats (although a healthy Nico Collins would likely have had something to say about that). We know that Chase is capable of breaking huge plays both through the air and with yards after the catch, and he did both this week en route to a WR1 overall finish.

I’m almost tempted to make an argument for selling high on Chase. After all, his target share (20%) and first-read target share (25.4%) are both down by roughly 5% from his 2023 numbers. But with the way he is playing (and disappointing starts from some other first-round picks), you can count on one hand the number of players that have comparable value. If Chase is on your roster, it’s probably best to just ride the wave. 

Kirk Cousins: 34.36 Half-PPR Points

This was a massive performance from Kirk, as he set the Falcons’ single-game passing record with 509 yards in an overtime win. Obviously, 58 attempts (the most of any QB so far this season) is an unsustainably high number. That number allowed Cousins to bring his weapons with him, as five separate Falcons pass-catchers had at least 9.6 Half-PPR points, including two top-five WR performances from Drake London and Darnell Mooney — that won’t last. 

However, it is worth noting that the Falcons have consistently trended more pass-heavy with each week. Kirk himself has also been improving since his disastrous Falcons debut. After this week’s explosion, he is now just outside the QB1 range as the QB13 for the season. While we may never get the offensive revolution in Atlanta that many fantasy analysts were hoping for (at least as it relates to Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson), Cousins could push for QB1 status the rest of the way. 

Tank Bigsby: 25.4 Half-PPR Points

When the RB1 on the week is rostered in less than 20% of fantasy leagues, it’s certainly worth talking about. Thanks largely to two big touchdown runs, Bigsby finished with 101 yards on 13 carries on Sunday, plus 28 yards on his lone reception. Notably, those 13 carries were more than double Travis Etienne’s six; this was the first time that Bigsby out-carried the veteran.

Now, Doug Pederson said after the game that Etienne was limited with a shoulder injury and emphatically stated that he is still the team’s lead back. However, Bigsby has absolutely earned an expanded role with his play so far this season. After struggling mightily as a rookie, he ranks first in Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expectation per carry with an absurd 4.19 (Derrick Henry is second at 2.49). Bigsby has similarly eye-popping numbers in measures of breakaway runs and tackle-breaking, as well as ranking fourth in PFF Rush Grade. He’s a must-roster in all formats, with his big-play ability making him a viable flex even if he remains behind Etienne in the pecking order.  

Biggest Duds

Deebo Samuel: 2.5 Half-PPR Points

After starting the season strong with two big games, Samuel has been underwhelming since his return from a hamstring injury. On Sunday, he caught just one of three targets for 11 yards, adding an additional nine yards on three carries. 

Unfortunately, this may just be part of the nature of Samuel’s role in the stacked 49ers’ offense. Last year, coincidentally also against the Cardinals, he had a game with just 0.6 fantasy points in which the San Francisco offense put up 35 points without his help. On the bright side, he still went on to finish as the WR9 in points per game despite having a few injury-impacted outings. Deebo may have a few more duds, but he should also have just as many massive outings.   

Breece Hall: 5.2 Half-PPR Points

This is Hall’s second straight week in the duds section, as he has managed just 27 rushing yards combined over the last two weeks. Receiving work has helped his production ever so slightly, but even that is trending in the wrong direction: His target share was 20.2% over the first three weeks and has been 8.3% since Week 4.

It’s not time to completely panic for Hall. He still ranks third among all RBs in expected half-PPR points, and his rushing efficiency should bounce back from the last two abysmal games. However, it’s looking very unlikely that he will provide the truly elite season managers were hoping for when drafting him in the first round. Braelon Allen is cutting out too large a share of his work, and the Jets’ offense is simply not that good. Perhaps today’s news that Robert Saleh has been fired as the Jets’ head coach will change things for the better, but that seems unlikely. Hall is looking more like a borderline RB1 than a league-winning option at this point. 

Chris Olave: 2.0 Half-PPR Points

It’s officially time to worry about Chris Olave. Five weeks into the season, he trails Rashid Shaheed in target share (25.0% to 19.9%), first-read target share (32.2% to 25.3%), air yards share (50.2% to 24.7%), and points per game (12.6 to 9.0). 

If the Saints were able to keep up their red-hot start offensively, this wouldn’t be an issue. But with Derek Carr coming back to Earth (and now injured), Olave will need elite usage to live up to his draft cost. Right now, he’s not getting it. At this point, Olave is best treated as a WR2 or even WR3 for fantasy purposes.    

Sneaky Storylines

Ja’Lynn Polk Never Comes Off the Field

This headline is literal, as Polk was one of just three receivers to play a 100% snap share in Week 5. He saw six targets but caught just one for 13 yards. Still, a rookie clearly asserting themselves as their team’s top WR this early in the season is something worth noting.

This is especially true with today’s news that Drake Maye will start for the Patriots in Week 6. If Maye brings a spark to this offense, he could bring his fellow rookie along with him. Polk is worth preemptively adding now in deeper leagues to see how New England’s offense looks with Maye at the helm. If there’s any improvement at all, Polk’s usage means he should be the main beneficiary.

Caleb Williams is Cooking

Looking at Caleb Williams’ game log, he seems to get better every single week. That trend continued in Week 5, as he threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns on just 29 attempts. Admittedly, this was against the Panthers, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. But things are looking up in Chicago after a slow start to the season.

Obviously, improvement from Caleb improves the fantasy outlook for the entire Bears’ offense. The sneakier part of this blurb is that the Bears made a major shift in personnel usage this week, playing 11 personnel on 71% of their offensive plays, easily a season-high, despite the fact that they were winning this game early.

As a result, Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze all posted identical 88.6% route participation rates. Moore is the clear alpha, but both the veteran and the rookie also saw six targets, 11 of which (all but one of Allen’s) were first-read targets. If Williams continues to improve and the Bears keep leaning into 11 personnel, we could see the dream scenario of all three WRs having weekly fantasy value.

Blake Corum Moves Up the Rams’ Depth Chart

He’s still not even in the same galaxy as preseason predictions that he would overtake Kyren Williams as the Rams’ RB1, but the rookie out of Michigan served as the Rams’ RB2 for the first time on Sunday. Corum played 11 snaps, touching the ball six times, while it was Ronnie Rivers’ turn to not play a single offensive snap (which Corum did three times in the first four weeks).

Corum still has zero standalone value, but cementing himself as the Rams’ RB2 makes him one of the best handcuffs in the league. He’s worth stashing if you have the bench space.  

Early DFS Plays

Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans

We’re going back to the low-hanging fruit of playing someone who will benefit from an injury. With Nico Collins exiting Week 5’s matchup early with an injury, Diggs led the Texans with eight targets, catching six for 82 yards.

Now that Collins has been deemed week-to-week, the veteran is in line to again serve as the team’s WR1 against the Patriots in Week 6. Let’s take advantage of that volume and get him at a relative discount. (This same logic can also be applied to Tank Dell, who saw his route participation shoot out with Collins out.)

Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers

Wicks was a chalk DFS play last week, and he disappointed. He finished with the same amount of drops as receptions (two each), totaling just 20 yards and 3.0 half-PPR fantasy points. 

This may be a case of “fool me twice, shame on me,” but I’m ready to give Wicks another shot this week as a post-hype play. While his production was obviously subpar, he did tie for the team lead with six targets and post a 44.2% air yards share. When he’s on the field, Wicks earns targets; assuming Christian Watson (and potentially also Romeo Doubs) is out again in Week 6, he will be on the field against the Cardinals, a solid matchup. Hopefully, things will go better in the box score this time. 

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 

The Ravens’ offense has been frustratingly conservative (from a fantasy perspective, anyway) at times this season, but we saw on Sunday what happens when the reigning MVP gets caught in a shootout. Lamar scored 33.4 fantasy points, passing for four touchdowns and totaling over 400 combined passing and rushing yards.

In Week 6, Jackson will be called into action again. The Ravens will be hosting the Commanders, who have been the league’s hottest offense through five weeks. Washington has also had one of the league’s most beatable defenses, which Lamar will certainly take advantage of. With a week-winning ceiling and elite floor, he looks like a great play in all formats.