Week 7 Fantasy Football Recap: Rachaad White is a Zombie

Top Performances

Lamar Jackson: 34.44 Half-PPR Points

With this performance, the reigning NFL MVP has firmly cemented himself as the clear top fantasy quarterback in the league (and he is further cemented by Jayden Daniels’ injury). Jackson has finished inside the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks every single week and as a top-five QB in five out of seven outings. 

There’s really not much more to say. In his second season in Todd Monken’s system and with Derrick Henry by his side, Lamar is nearly unstoppable. He leads all quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt and in rushing yards per game. If you’ve got him on your roster, just sit back and enjoy the points.  

Jahmyr Gibbs: 30.0 Half-PPR Points

Gibbs’ production had been solid over the first six weeks of the season, but he had yet to truly provide a ceiling outcome. That changed this week, as he took advantage of David Montgomery missing a few snaps with a knee injury by racking up 116 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 carries. He saw four targets, too, an encouraging development given that he has had a couple of games without a single target in the season’s early going.

Even after this huge performance, there’s a real argument that expectations for Gibbs coming into the season were too high. Many fantasy managers were predicting that the sophomore would claim a clear lead role in the Lions’ backfield, but he and Montgomery are clearly still in a 1A/1B (aka Sonic and Knuckles) tandem. 

With that said, this game was a reminder of the two things that mean Gibbs is still a truly elite fantasy football asset. For one, he is one of the most explosive players in the league — his 45-yard TD this week was his first play of over 30 yards on the season, but it certainly won’t be his last. For another, his contingent upside if Montgomery were to miss time is game-breaking. No other back who is already an elite fantasy option (aside from Montgomery himself) has that level of contingent upside.

Rachaad White: 26.1 Half-PPR Points

After every fantasy analyst spent the last week declaring White the third-best RB in his own backfield, he exploded on Monday night for 26.1 points. As usual, White did most of his damage through the air, catching all six of his targets for 71 yards and two touchdowns. But he also led the team with 10 rushing attempts, one more than Bucky Irving and twice as many as Sean Tucker.

Long-term, I’m still concerned about White’s outlook. He is still the third-worst rusher on his own team, and his role in the ground game will likely continue to erode. But this week was a reminder that, at the absolute least, he is the top receiving back on this offense. With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he, Irving, and Tucker manage to all end up unusable in fantasy with inconsistent rotations week to week. 

Biggest Duds

C.J. Stroud: 5.34 Half-PPR Points

Stroud, who was drafted as the QB5 in ADP heading into the season, is now the QB18 in points per game. He has just one finish inside the top six weekly quarterbacks, to go with five outside the top 12. 

Without any real dual-threat upside, Stroud will have to rely on elite efficiency numbers to be a consistent QB1. Especially without Nico Collins, that level of efficiency simply isn’t there: He ranks 14th in adjusted yards per attempt and has a relatively average 4.4% touchdown rate. In Week 7, this problem was compounded by Houston leaning on the run, with a pass rate 14.5% below expected. For the season, Houston is slightly above their expected pass rate, but this is a worrying data point. At this point, Stroud is not a weekly QB1, and he can be dropped in shallow leagues.

Diontae Johnson: 2.2 Half-PPR Points

The Andy Dalton experience seems to get less fun with every week. Dalton is still undeniably a massive upgrade from Bryce Young, but he is also one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. This week, Dalton threw for two interceptions and under 100 yards as the Panthers were absolutely demolished by the Commanders. As a result, Diontae finished with just one catch for 17 yards, his worst game of the season, including games with Young under center.

With that said, since Dalton took over in Week 3, Johnson still ranks 11th among WRs in half-PPR points (15th in PPG). He also ranks fifth in targets and seventh in air yards over that span. This week shows that he will have more down games than a receiver on an actually good offense would, but elite usage should keep Johnson locked in as a high-end WR2.

DeVonta Smith: 0.3 Half-PPR Points

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of DeVonta Smith. In three games with A.J. Brown healthy, he is averaging just 8.7 half-PPR points per game on a 17.6% target share (4.3 targets per game). This week, he saw just two targets, catching only one and recording negative two yards.

With the Eagles’ offense struggling to maintain consistency, more and more of their production is being condensed on Brown and Saquon Barkley. Smith is a very talented receiver and will certainly have many more big games, but he will likely have a few more duds like this as well.

Sneaky Storylines

The Seahawks Keep Flying

We are officially seven weeks into the season, and the Seahawks are the clear leaders in pass rate over expected at 8.8%. Over the last six weeks (essentially throwing out Week 1), that number is even higher at 10.9%. What’s particularly crazy is that, despite this, Seattle still ranks third in the league in terms of the percentage of their touchdowns that have come on the ground, at 60%. And it’s not like they change their philosophy near the end zone: They rank third in red-zone pass rate and sixth in pass rate inside the 10-yard line.

What this all means is that Seattle’s passing offense is due for some massive positive regression. Geno Smith is the obvious main beneficiary, but Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba should both eat while D.K. Metcalf is sidelined by a knee injury. Kenneth Walker, in a newly expanded receiving role, will also continue to rack up targets. There may even be enough passing volume to go around in this offense for Noah Fant to provide some TE1 weeks. I recommend buying into the Seahawks’ offense now, as this pass-happy nature is a sign of good fantasy outcomes to come.

Cedric Tillman Replaces Amari Cooper

This storyline hasn’t gone completely under the radar, as it would be hard to miss Tillman leading the Browns’ receivers with 12 targets. However, what has gone under the radar is the extent to which Tillman was used as a like-for-like replacement in Cooper’s vacated X receiver role. 

In Weeks 1-6, Cooper averaged a 27% target share on an 87% route participation rate. His 33% first-read target share and 49% air yards share were both absolutely elite. Tillman didn’t quite live up to those numbers, but he wasn’t too far off: 81% route participation, 23% target share, 37% air yards share, and a 31% first-read target share. That last number is especially key — the Browns were still scheming targets for their X receiver as if Cooper was there. Jerry Jeudy, whom many expected to replace Cooper as the Browns’ top target, saw just a 12.5% first-read share in Week 7, below his season average. 

Going forward, it’s unclear what to expect from Cleveland’s offense. The loss of Deshaun Watson can only be a positive, but they may reconfigure things to account for Cooper’s departure and the return of Nick Chubb. Still, on the off chance this usage continues, Tillman is absolutely worth snagging in deep leagues.

There’s Hope For Kyle Pitts

Mark Andrews stole headlines as the elite TE coming back from the dead with his two-TD performance on Monday night, but I’m not sold on his revival (he was still at a route participation rate below 50%). Instead, I’m more excited by Pitts, who put up a less flashy but much more replicable performance on Sunday.

The key stat for Pitts in Week 7 was that he posted an 87% route participation rate, easily his highest of the season. He trended down in that metric over the first four weeks of the season, bottoming out at 58% in Week 4. But that number has grown in each of the last three weeks as he has become more involved in the Falcons’ offense.

Over those three weeks, Pitts has averaged 7.3 targets (a 17.6% share) and 10.3 Half-PPR points despite not scoring a single touchdown. In the wasteland known as the tight end position, those are great marks. Especially if he can maintain a route participation rate above 80%, Pitts could bounce back with TE1 production for the rest of the season. 

Early DFS Plays

Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one is tragic, but it’s obvious. The Buccaneers lost both of their top two receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, on Monday night. A third-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft, McMillan now has a shot at leading this team in targets at bargain prices on every DFS site.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Since Robert Saleh was fired, Breece Hall has seen absolutely elite usage. He has an 84% snap share, 83% rush attempt share, and 20% target share over the last two weeks, with over 20 expected and actual fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, Braelon Allen has just six total touches over the last two weeks.

Hall is back in probably the league’s most fantasy-friendly role, and he has an excellent matchup this week against the Patriots. New England ranks as the fifth-best schedule-adjusted matchup for fantasy running backs, and the Jets are seven-point favorites in early lines. Hall is expensive, but he should be worth it this week.

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

Speaking of players who are going to be expensive but should pay off, we have Brock Bowers. With at least 10 targets in each of the last three weeks, Bowers is already debatably the best fantasy option in the league at the tight end position. In Week 8, he gets the best possible matchup, as the Chiefs are the softest schedule-adjusted opponent for tight ends.

Bowers is the most expensive tight end on DraftKings’ main slate, second on FanDuel, and third on Yahoo, but he is still worth rostering all on three sites. With no teams on bye (and value options like McMillan), we will be able to find the cash to get him in our lineups.