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NFL Best Bets

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Take a look at the site I use for Betting and DFS Simulations https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

15-5-1 Against the Spread

Week 8 Starting Bankroll $305.62

Best Bets Week 8
IND +5 -112 @ $10
BUF -3 -110 @ $10
WSH +3 -115 @ $10
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

Bills-Chiefs rivalry: This may be the secret weapon that helps Buffalo slay Kansas City, advance to Super Bowl
An extra OL has given the Bills extra juice on offense
(Jan 20 -- CBS Sports)

Lions' Dan Campbell on both coordinators set to move on: Replacements will 'stay true to who we are'
A look at some internal candidates to replace OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn
(Jan 20 -- CBS Sports)

2025 NFL conference championship games: Ball security is common theme for Chiefs, Bills, Eagles and Commanders
This will mark the first conference championship weekend ever featuring teams with zero turnovers in postseason
(Jan 20 -- CBS Sports)

Commanders beat Lions 45-31, How shocking was this win? Breakfast Ball
The Washington Commanders beat the Detroit Lions 45-31 in an upset. Craig Carton, Danny Parkins, and Mark Schlereth ask how shocking this win was for the Commanders and Jayden Daniels.
(Jan 20 -- FOX Sports)

Lions, Dan Campbell expect to lose both offensive and defensive coordinator
Detroit might be on the hunt to replace its offensive and defensive coordinators, with Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn receiving head coaching buzz.
(Jan 20 -- FOX Sports)