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Betting Preview, Cheat Sheet, Tipsy Picks

NFL Best Bets

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Take a look at the site I use for Betting and DFS Simulations https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

15-5-1 Against the Spread

Week 8 Starting Bankroll $305.62

Best Bets Week 8
IND +5 -112 @ $10
BUF -3 -110 @ $10
WSH +3 -115 @ $10
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

49ers WR Deebo Samuel Worth Day 3 Pick?
The 49ers-Deebo Samuel road has been a rocky one for some time now. After a hold-in led to a new deal in 2022, it didn’t take long for trade talks to circulate involving one (and eventually both) of the team’s top wide receivers. The veteran weapon was not moved, in part due to the 49ers’ […]
(Feb 21 -- Pro Football Rumors)

Jaguars name Rams exec Gladstone, 34, new GM
The Jaguars have hired former Rams personnel executive James Gladstone as the team's new general manager, the team announced Friday.
(Feb 21 -- ESPN)

Sam Darnold Deal Possible In Minnesota; Franchise Tag Unlikely
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler appeared on SportsCenter today and dropped an interesting update on the situation regarding free agent quarterback Sam Darnold. While Darnold has been viewed as a potential franchise tag candidate, Fowler’s report seems to indicate that it would not be the most likely option for the Vikings. With the way the franchise tag […]
(Feb 21 -- Pro Football Rumors)

Extension Talks Between Cowboys, Micah Parsons Have Not Started
Cowboys outside linebacker Micah Parsons has been extremely vocal about wanting to remain in Dallas under an extended contract, especially over the last three months. In what has become typical Cowboys fashion, though, talks between the two parties have not started, according to Calvin Watkins of The Dallas Morning News. To be clear, this seems […]
(Feb 21 -- Pro Football Rumors)

Ravens remain silent regarding Justin Tucker
The NFL is doing what it needs to do, reportedly interviewing three women who accuse Ravens kicker Justin Tucker of inappropriate conduct during massage-therapy sessions and planning to interview more.
(Feb 21 -- ProFootballTalk.com)