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NFL best Bets Week 11

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Source of my betting simulations -> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

22-7-1 Against the Spread

Week 11 Starting Bankroll $366.32
BUF -2.0 -112 @ $10
ATL +2.5 -108 @ $10
GB -6.5 -108 @ $10
^parlay +602 @ $10

Previous Week 10 (Bankroll $408.46)
Bal -6.0 -112 @ $20 loss
NE +6.0 -112 @ $20 win +17.86
DET -3.5 -108 @ $20 loss
^parlay +590 @ $20 loss

Previous Week 9 (Bankroll $322.34)
TB +8.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
NE +3.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
WSH -3.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^parlay +590 @ $10 win +59.00

Previous Week 8 (Bankroll $305.62)
IND +5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
BUF -3 -110 @ $10 win 
 +9.09
WSH +3 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

Jets interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich reiterated that Aaron Rodgers will start in Week 18 against the Dolphins.
Rodgers having perhaps the worst game of his professional career won't stop the Jets from rolling him out in Week 18 to put the finishing touches on a wildly disappointing season. The NFL's leader for career sacks taken threw for 112 yards on 18 attempts in Week 17's loss to the Bills but needs just one more touchdown pass to reach 500 for his career. The decision to start Rodgers doesn't come as much of a surprise, as he'll undoubtedly be chasing his 500th career touchdown pass in what may be the final game of his NFL career. Rodgers and the Jets will have a chance to play spoiler to the Dolphins, who kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Browns on Sunday.
(Dec 30 -- NBC Sports)

NFL Week 17: PFF Team of the Week & Player Awards
PFF's Week 17 Team of the Week is headlined by Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow and Philadelphia Eagles edge rusher Nolan Smith.
(Dec 30 -- Pro Football Focus)

Aaron Rodgers: Will start in Week 18
Jets interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich said Monday that Rodgers will start next Sunday's Week 18 game against Miami, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.
(Dec 30 -- Rotowire)

Aaron Jones: Not dealing with major injury
Jones (quad) does not seem to be dealing with a major injury and has a "pretty realistic chance" of playing in next Sunday's Week 18 regular-season finale against Detroit, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
(Dec 30 -- Rotowire)

Which NFL Teams have been eliminated from 2024-25 playoffs?
Check out this article for a list of NFL teams eliminated from the NFL playoffs, as well as a list of teams on the bubble.
(Dec 30 -- FOX Sports)