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NFL best Bets Week 11

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Source of my betting simulations -> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

22-7-1 Against the Spread

Week 11 Starting Bankroll $366.32
BUF -2.0 -112 @ $10
ATL +2.5 -108 @ $10
GB -6.5 -108 @ $10
^parlay +602 @ $10

Previous Week 10 (Bankroll $408.46)
Bal -6.0 -112 @ $20 loss
NE +6.0 -112 @ $20 win +17.86
DET -3.5 -108 @ $20 loss
^parlay +590 @ $20 loss

Previous Week 9 (Bankroll $322.34)
TB +8.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
NE +3.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
WSH -3.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^parlay +590 @ $10 win +59.00

Previous Week 8 (Bankroll $305.62)
IND +5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
BUF -3 -110 @ $10 win 
 +9.09
WSH +3 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

Source: Raiders, DT Butler have 3-year extension
Adam Butler has agreed to a three-year extension worth $16.5 million with $11 million in guarantees to remain in Las Vegas, a source said.
(Mar 10 -- ESPN)

NFL winners and losers from free agency eve: Myles Garrett, DK Metcalf cash in; Cowboys, Bengals stunned
A look at the winners and losers from Sunday's avalanche of NFL transactions
(Mar 10 -- CBS Sports)

Source: Broncos near deal to retain DT Jones
The Broncos are close to reaching a deal with defensive tackle D.J. Jones at around $13 million per year, a source said.
(Mar 10 -- ESPN)

Broncos To Re-Sign DT D.J. Jones
11:25pm: The Broncos have their nose tackle locked up on a second contract, with DNVR Sports’ Zac Stevens reporting the deal is done. Fowler’s update turned out to be on-point, as 9News’ Mike Klis confirms it is a three-year, $39MM pact. Considering his run-oriented skillset, this represents a big win for Jones, though guarantees will […]
(Mar 10 -- Pro Football Rumors)

TE John Bates will return to Commanders on three-year contract
He and Zach Ertz will stay together in Washington for at least another season.
(Mar 9 -- Washington Post)