Week 11 Fantasy Football Recap: The Taysom Hill Week

I cannot believe we are already done with Week 11. Some crazy formats (looking at you, Scott  Fish Bowl) are already entering the fantasy football playoffs. After a relatively down week for offense in Week 10, offenses around the league exploded on Sunday. Let’s break down the top performances and takeaways from Week 11’s action.    

Top Performances

Taysom Hill: 37.52 Half-PPR Points

Taysom absolutely exploded on Sunday, being used all over the field in the injury-riddled Saints offense. He played like a traditional tight end, earning 10 targets (a 35% share) on a 57% route share and catching eight for 50 yards. He was hugely explosive in the rushing game, racking up 138 yards and three touchdowns on just seven carries. And he even attempted two passes, completing one for 18 yards.

The crazy part about this huge game is that it could have been even bigger, as Hill lost four points in most formats thanks to a lost fumble and an interception on his other pass attempt. The fact that the Saints kept going back to him after those turnovers shows how much new OC Darren Rizzi is willing to lean on him. Going forward, Hill is a must-start tight end. He has always had weekly upside thanks to his big-play ability and red zone usage, and now he has the actual tight end usage to go with it. 

Jared Goff: 34.58 Half-PPR Points

The Lions absolutely decimated the Jaguars, putting up 52 points in the most dominant game we’ve seen all year. The most encouraging part of this game for Goff was that he stayed involved even after the Lions were well ahead. Each of their first three touchdowns came on the ground, and this game was already over in the second quarter, but Detroit ran up the score with their starters in and aggressive playcalling (a pass rate 5% over expected). That allowed Goff to rack up 412 yards and four touchdowns, adding 21 rushing yards for good measure.

Following this outburst, Goff is now the QB12 on the season. He has another very exploitable matchup against the Colts next week, but then the Lions’ schedule takes a turn for the worse. It’s encouraging that the Lions are willing to run up the score, but they may not get too many opportunities to do that in games against the Bears (twice), Packers, Bills, and 49ers to finish the fantasy season. This game was a great bounceback after some down weeks, but I still consider Goff just a fringe QB1 the rest of the way.

Joe Mixon: 34.3 Half-PPR Points

Mixon started this game so hot that finishing with “only” 34 fantasy points almost seems like a disappointment. He had two touchdowns before the first quarter was over and reached 100 combined yards less than five minutes into the second. From there, he coasted to the finish line, punching in another goal-line TD in the fourth and finishing with 109 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards. 

This was Mixon’s sixth straight game with a rushing TD, fifth game in a row with at least 20 carries, and sixth game in a row with at least 16 Half-PPR points. He now leads all running backs with 21.5 points per game — no mean feat considering the seasons Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley are having. Looking forward, his matchups in Week 16 and 17 (@ Kansas City and vs. Baltimore) are a bit concerning, but he’s playing so well that the right move is simply to ride the wave until then. 

Biggest Duds

Aaron Jones: 4.8 Half-PPR Points

Jones had his worst outing of the season on Sunday, gaining just 39 yards on 15 rushing attempts and catching his only target for four yards. To be fair, the Titans do have a tough run defense, but this was still a rough outing,

The most concerning part of this week for Jones was that his usage was subpar. He played just 55% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps, handled only five more attempts than Cam Akers (a 60% RB rush share), and posted just a 35% route participation rate. All of those numbers were well below his usual healthy averages. 

There’s a chance this was a one-week blip, but I think the truth is that the Vikings trust Cam Akers more than Ty Chandler and are using that as an opportunity to rest their veteran tailback. Jones has to slide down rankings as long as this continues. 

Deebo Samuel: 4.1 Half-PPR Points

In three games without Brandon Aiyuk, Samuel is now averaging just 8.3 Half-PPR points. He has just a 22% target share and a 29% first-read target share, and those numbers get even worse if we look at weeks with Jauan Jennings active. 

While he still ranks near the top of the league in YAC, Deebo hasn’t broken off as many huge plays as we are used to, and he has been less efficient in the running game as well. With that said, I’m still starting him everywhere I roster him. A 20% target share and a few carries a game should be enough that he hits on a big play or two eventually. However, the chances of him going truly nuclear like his previous-season splits without Aiyuk might have implied seem to be essentially zero at this point.   

Travis Kelce: 1.8 Half-PPR Points

After starting the year very slowly, Travis Kelce has been on absolute fire ever since Rashee Rice went down with an injury. Coming into Week 11, he had been a top-four tight end in each of the previous three weeks and a top-seven option in six of the last seven. 

On Sunday, however, he was more or less shut down as the Chiefs took their first loss of the season, catching just two of four targets for a measly eight yards. I wouldn’t be too worried about this, but there was also a glaring red flag in Kelce’s underlying usage. He posted just a 69% route participation rate after having been above 80% in each of the previous three weeks. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s TE2 Noah Gray posted easily his season high at 66%. I’m willing to chalk this up as a weird week for the veteran, but another week of usage like this will be time to hit the panic button.

Sneaky Storylines

New OC Thomas Brown Changed The Bears’ Offense

The Bears fired Shane Waldron heading into Week 11, replacing him as their offensive coordinator with Thomas Brown. Normally, I’m skeptical of the potential impact of these midseason coaching changes, but, at least through one week, Brown’s version of this Chicago offense is radically different than Waldron’s in multiple fantasy-relevant ways.

First and most importantly, Brown made things easy for Caleb Williams. Coming into this week, Williams targeted his first read on just 61% of his attempts, the third-lowest rate among 100-dropback QBs. In Week 11, that number was 87%, which would easily lead the league for the season. In a small sample, the results were positive, as Caleb’s efficiency improved and he posted his lowest sack rate against a non-Panthers team since Week 3. If this continues, it is a huge boost to Williams’ fantasy value, as well as that of his receivers. 

Meanwhile, Brown switched up the Bears’ RB and TE usage, too. Roschon Johnson was dramatically more involved, including playing four of five snaps inside the 10-yard line. This new usage could make him a fringe flex play and is a big hit to D’Andre Swift’s value. At the same time, Cole Kmet played his highest snap share of the season and Gerald Everett’s role shrank dramatically. However, Kmet didn’t actually post a higher route participation rate than usual. This was likely because he was asked to pass block more often (he set a season-high in pass-blocking snaps) and because an increase in easy-button plays like screens means more dropbacks where he wasn’t running a route. Still, being on the field is the first step to scoring fantasy points, so this was a positive sign for Kmet, too. 

Derrick Henry Isn’t Matchup-Proof

He scored his 13th rushing touchdown (15th overall) of the season, but Derrick Henry finished with just 10.5 Half-PPR points in a relatively quiet day by his standards. Notably, he also played just 46% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps, falling below 50% for the first time since Week 2. 

None of this is particularly surprising, as the Ravens have consistently kept Henry off the field in passing situations. However, it gets more concerning when we look at Baltimore’s upcoming schedule. Of the Ravens’ five remaining games in the fantasy season, only one (Week 15 vs. the Giants) looks on paper like a matchup they should win easily. Their other four opponents are the same Steelers as this week, the surging Chargers, the Eagles and their suddenly elite defense, and a solid Texans team. The Ravens could easily be favored in each of those games, but they won’t necessarily be salting the game away with 20+ carries for the King.  

Don’t get me wrong, Henry is still a must-start RB1 every week. His big-play upside and touchdown equity are unparalleled. I’m just a little worried that he’ll let down managers who have been relying on him all season in the weeks where it matters most.

Bell-Cow Bijan?

If we just look at Bijan Robinson’s final numbers from Sunday, his 71% snap share and 60% RB rush share don’t seem all that abnormal. However, that includes snaps and rushes by Jase McClellan after the game was out of hand. If we exclude numbers after the Falcons waved the white flag by pulling Kirk Cousins, Bijan played 93% of Atlanta’s snaps and handled 100% of their RB rushes.

That’s right, Tyler Allgeier didn’t record a single carry this week, and he played just three offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Bijan racked up 40 snaps, 12 carriers, and four targets. To be fair, this was the best possible game script for Robinson’s usage. The Falcons were trailing early (Robinson plays more in passing situations) and reached the red zone just once (Allgeier is typically more involved near the goal line). Still, this game sticks out like a sore thumb in terms of RB usage, as Allgeier had averaged 8.5 attempts per game heading into this week. This backfield will certainly be more balanced in more normal game scripts, but this still may be a sign of increased usage for Bijan in the weeks to come. 

Early DFS Plays

WR Calvin Ridley, Tennesse Titans

Ridley was one of my plays of the week last week, and he didn’t come through, catching just four of six targets for 58 yards. However, he had multiple positive plays called back, including a 51-yard touchdown. He also still had elite usage, with a 90% participation rate, a 48% air yards share, and a 31% first-read target share.

Overall, since Week 8, Ridley’s numbers are absolutely elite: 90% route participation, 30% target share, 52% air yards share, 39% first-read target share, and 14.8 Half-PPR points per game. Now, his salary has gotten lower on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he is heading into a matchup with a Texans team that gives up the 12th-most schedule-adjusted points to WRs. I will absolutely be slamming him right back into my lineups.

WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson’s usage has fluctuated all season, as he has split snaps with Dontayvion Wicks as an outside receiver alongside Romeo Doubs. However, this week, coming out of the Packers’ bye, Watson set a season-high with a 70% route participation rate. He turned that extra usage into production, too, catching all four of his targets for 150 yards.

Heading into Week 12, Watson’s price has risen on FanDuel, but it hasn’t changed on Yahoo and DraftKings. He certainly still comes with risk: His participation rate could fall back down, or he could just be the odd man out in the Packers’ crowded offense. But we know that Watson has big-play ceiling, and I want to chase that while his usage is up.  

RB Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders

This play is more straightforward than the previous two. The Cowboys are completely falling apart, and they showed last night that they are incapable of defending the run. The Commanders are 10.5-point favorites already for this matchup, meaning they should have plenty of chances to feed the ball to their young bruiser. Especially on DraftKings, where his price has inexplicably been cut by $700 since last week, I love Robinson’s chances to take advantage of this super soft matchup.