Week 14 Fantasy Football Recap: Josh Allen Storms Into the Fantasy Playoffs
If you are reading this, congrats on (hopefully) making it to the fantasy football playoffs! The final week of the regular season was absolutely wild, so let’s take a look back at some of the best, worst, and most impactful performances of the week.
Top Performances
Josh Allen: 51.88 Half-PPR Points
A week after he somehow managed to throw himself a touchdown pass, Josh Allen outdid himself with a truly bonkers performance. Either his passing stats (343 yards and three touchdowns) or his rushing output (82 yards and three more TDs) would have been worth 20 fantasy points alone.
After a relatively slow start to the season in which he was “just” a weekly QB1 without his same dominant ceiling, Allen is back to being a clear top-tier fantasy option, if not in a tier of his own at the very top. There really isn’t much else to say. If you have him, you’re starting him, and he very well could carry you to a fantasy championship.
Ja’Marr Chase: 38.1 Half-PPR Points
In a year when so many wide receivers have disappointed, Chase stands out as far and away the best fantasy receiver in the league. This was his third performance of over 35 Half-PPR points, and he is now averaging over 20 points per game. No other WR is above even 16.5 (Nico Collins), and Justin Jefferson is the closest player who has not missed a game all the way down at 15.2. Just like with Allen, there’s not much more to say. If you have Chase, congrats on probably making the playoffs, and I hope he helps you (and me) win a championship.
Zach Charbonnet: 34.8 Half-PPR Points
Speaking of players who could win fantasy championships, things are looking good for anyone who happens to have Charbonnet on their roster. Following this week’s explosion against the Cardinals, he is now averaging 24.8 points per game across three games played without Kenneth Walker.
Walker was originally listed out with an ankle and calf injury, which has now reportedly been narrowed down to just a calf issue. Still, his status for Week 15 (and potentially more than that?) is clearly up in the air. As long as he is out, Charbonnet is an absolute must-start option.
Biggest Duds
James Cook: 3.9 Half-PPR Points
With Allen doing everything himself, there weren’t any fantasy points left over for James Cook. Ironically, he actually saw his best usage of the season by some measures, posting a 100% RB rush share. The issue was that 100% RB rush share was just six carries, as the Bills correctly decided early on to simply let Allen cook (not Cook cook).
Fortunately for Cook’s value, I don’t think there’s too much we can take from this game going forward, as this was clearly an anomalous game script. This result reinforces that Cook’s floor is lower than most comparable running backs thanks to his low weekly volume, but elite efficiency means he is still a weekly RB2.
D’Andre Swift: 4.5 Half-PPR Points
I am actually much more concerned about Swift going forward than I am about Cook. My issue with Swift isn’t so much this game, in which the entire Bears’ offense was completely shut out until it was too late for much rushing volume. My issue is that, prior to suffering a concussion in Week 12, Roschon Johnson was playing an expanded role under new OC (and now interim HC) Thomas Brown.
In Week 11 (Johnson’s one healthy week under Brown), Swift posted just a 58% RB rush share, by far his lowest in recent weeks. Johnson also ran just three fewer routes than Swift and played four of the Bears’ five snaps inside the 10, including handling two of three goal-line rush attempts. The Bears’ offense under Brown took a big step back on Sunday, and now they are heading into two brutal divisional matchups. Especially with Roschon likely to return this Sunday, I would avoid starting Swift if at all possible.
Tee Higgins: 3.3 Half-PPR Points
Like Cook, Higgins was a victim of one of his teammates from the top performances section, as Chase vacuumed up all the targets in this Bengals offense. Higgins saw just an 11% target share (five targets), catching only two for 23 yards.
However, even coming off this down week, Higgins still has a 24% target share for the season. That’s just behind Chase, who is at 26%, and Higgins actually leads his superstar teammate when both are healthy. Higgins also still ranks seventh among all WRs with an excellent 13.8 Half-PPR points per game. Especially with Joe Burrow coming out to the media and voicing his support for Higgins re-signing with the Bengals, I expect him to still get his over the coming weeks.
Sneaky Storylines
Things Look Grim For Najee Harris
What isn’t sneaky is that the Steelers have an absolutely brutal schedule for the fantasy playoffs. They are on the road in Philadelphia and Baltimore for the next two weeks, then welcome the reigning champion Chiefs for the fantasy football championship. You arguably couldn’t pick three worse matchups for a fantasy running back, especially one who mostly sees work on the ground. The Chiefs and Ravens allow the first-fewest and second-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, while the Eagles have been arguably the league’s best defense over the last two months.
Making things even worse for Harris, he appears to be losing his hold over the Steelers’ backfield. He was outsnapped by Jaylen Warren for the second time on Sunday, the first time all season that has happened in a Steelers’ win. Harris’ work was particularly impacted in the receiving game, where he posted a season-low 14% route participation rate and saw zero targets (Warren saw four targets on a 48% rate). Harris is still seeing solid weekly volume, which means he isn’t a must-bench, but I certainly wouldn’t feel comfortable starting him in any of the next three weeks.
Adam Thielen’s Role Keeps Growing
Adam Thielen has been excellent since returning from IR in Week 12, averaging 13.9 points per game on a 22% target share. Even more encouraging is that his usage has steadily trended upward. In his first game back, he was a distant third behind David Moore and Xavier Legette with just a 70% route participation rate. In Week 13, he jumped up to 78%, but he was still the team’s third WR. That changed on Sunday, as he improved again to an 85% route participation rate, clearly ahead of Moore (80%) as the team’s WR2.
Given that Thielen has been earning targets at an excellent clip with a 25% target per route run rate, this expanded role should mean he will continue to perform. Bryce Young is playing at a new level, and the veteran is his favorite target. Don’t hesitate to start him in the fantasy playoffs if you have him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Weird Usage
This probably isn’t anything, but I noticed it and haven’t seen anyone else discussing it, so I figure it’s worth mentioning as a “Sneaky Storyline.” Amon-Ra St. Brown ran a route on just 70% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks on Thursday night, well below his 82% average. In fact, ARSB had been above at least 85% in four of the previous five games, so this was a huge departure from his norm. Unsurprisingly, this showed up on the stat sheet, as St. Brown saw just a 15% target share (six targets) and caught only five passes for 43 yards.
The key difference seems to be that the Lions played 11 personnel (three receivers) on just 46% of their plays, well below their 54% season average. That’s not their lowest mark of the season, but it was easily the lowest in a competitive game. With that in mind, I think we can probably dismiss this down week from the Sun God as a result of Detroit liking a particular formation or personnel group against their divisional rivals. With that said, I will definitely be checking ARSB’s route participation rate next week — one down week is a fluke, but two weeks might be the start of a pattern.
Early DFS Plays
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Brown’s salaries keep rising, but they’re still not high enough. Since Zack Moss’ season-ending injury, the second-year RB is seeing volume that essentially no other back in the league can touch.
Since Week 9 (the first week without Moss), Brown has seen 121 opportunities (carries + targets). Other Bengals running backs have combined for a grand total of four, all by Khalil Hebert. That’s unheard-of backfield dominance in this era, and he is getting it on one of the best offenses in the league.
QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
This is less true on other sites, but Kyler is simply far too cheap on DraftKings this week. Yes, he has been up-and-down this season, but Murray is still a true dual-threat quarterback. He is also in a very beatable matchup against the Patriots, with a healthy 25.5-point team total. I will play him all day long at just $6,000 DK dollars.
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
I know I just said that no one can touch Brown’s dominance of the Bengals’ backfield, but Chuba Hubbard is going to give it a shot. With Miles Sanders already on IR, the Panthers lost both Jonathon Brooks (tragically done for the season with a torn ACL) and Raheem Blackshear (chest injury) on Sunday. That left Hubbard as their only healthy running back, and they leaned on him to the tune of a 97% snap share and 31 opportunities.
Of course, the Panthers will have at least one other running back on their roster on Sunday. Blackshear might return, or they might lean on veteran Mike Boone. But Blackshear is a special teams specialist, and Mike Boone is not exactly a dynamic threat. I expect Hubbard to absolutely dominate touches on Sunday, in a game where the Panthers are actually favored against the sinking Cowboys. That level of volume comes with floor and ceiling, so he is a great play in all formats.