Week 15 Fantasy Football Recap: Josh Allen Does It Again

I can’t believe that there are somehow only two weeks left in the fantasy football season. Of course, those are the two most important weeks of the year, as championships will be won and lost over the next 14 days. With that in mind, let’s break down the biggest performances, duds, and storylines from Week 15, plus take a quick look at DFS options for Week 16’s main slate.

Top Performances

Josh Allen: 41.28 Half-PPR Points

What else is there to say about Josh Allen at this point? He has scored 93 fantasy points over the last two weeks, singlehandedly propelling fantasy managers into the fantasy football semifinals. There literally isn’t anything actionable to say here. He’s a must-start elite quarterback, and everyone knows it.

Jared Goff: 41.06 Half-PPR Points

Allen’s counterpart in an epic duel on Sunday, Goff is more with discussing. After this explosion, he is the QB7 for the season in both total points and points per game, but he seemed like more of a fringe QB1 for most of the year. The biggest issue for Goff from a fantasy perspective has been that the Lions have not needed to rely on him in plenty of games. He ranks second in yards per attempt and fourth in TD rate but just 14th in attempts per game. Combine that with a lack of rushing production, and you have a slightly boom-or-bust backend QB1.

With that said, things are looking good for Goff to finish the season strong (although we certainly can’t expect another 40-pointing outing). David Montgomery is done for the year, and Detroit’s defense is dealing with a laundry list of injuries. Both of those issues could lead to more passing game scripts for Goff. He does have two bad matchups in the Bears and 49ers, but I have faith that this Lions offense can pass on anyone if needed — we just have to hope they will need to. 

Davante Adams: 38.3 Half-PPR Points

The Jets’ season may have been one disaster after another, but the Davante Adams trade seems to have worked (at least for his fantasy football managers). Since Week 9 (his third week in a Jets uniform), Adams ranks third among WRs with 18.3 Half-PPR points per game.

Any concerns that he would play second fiddle to Garrett Wilson were clearly unfounded, as he has seen the highest target share in the league over that span at a whopping 31%, with 10.7 targets per game. While the Jets won’t play the terrible Jaguars pass defense every week, their next two matchups with the Rams and Bills are still above-average — Adams is a must-start WR1 at this point. 

Biggest Duds

Derrick Henry: 6.7 Half-PPR Points

This seemed like a smash spot for Derrick Henry. He has been a bit game-script-dependent, mostly getting going in Baltimore wins, but the Ravens were huge favorites against the lowly Giants. And they did deliver, decimating the Giants in a game that wasn’t as close as its 35-14 final score.

But Henry wasn’t part of the decimation, finishing with just 67 yards on 14 carries, with zero targets and zero touchdowns. The Ravens ran the score up with the pass, as Lamar Jackson threw for five touchdowns. Then, with a huge lead in the fourth quarter, they let Rasheen Ali salt the game away, resting King Henry instead of letting him feast on the Giants’ overmatched defense. 

At this point, Henry’s fantasy profile is a little worrying. We know that he struggles in games where the Ravens trail, as Justice Hill plays over him in all passing situations. Now, we’ve seen that he can struggle even in a dominant victory. Henry’s production is hugely reliant on big runs and touchdowns. So far, he has provided those, with 619 yards on breakaway runs and 15 trips to pay dirt. With that in mind, he’s still essentially a must-start despite mediocre matchups with the Steelers and Texans … but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see his name land in this section one more time before the season is up. 

Will Levis: -4.44 Half-PPR Points

I usually wouldn’t feature a bad outing from Levis, who probably wasn’t rostered, let alone started, in most fantasy football leagues this week. But -4.44 points against a terrible Cincinnati defense is a performance so impressively bad I can’t pass it up. Levis actually completed eight of his 12 passes for 89 yards … but three of his four incompletions were interceptions, and he added in a fumble for good measure.  

This collapse resulted in Levis being benched, not just for the end of the Titans’ loss but for Week 16 as well. Mason Rudolph will step in as the Titans’ starting quarterback, which represents a slight upgrade for all of their fantasy options.

Cooper Kupp: 0.0 Half-PPR Points

I can’t imagine a worse start to the fantasy football playoffs than having Kupp drop a complete goose egg on Thursday Night Football. The veteran receiver came into Week 15 averaging 14.9 Half-PPR points per game, the fifth-most of any WR in the league. His 28% target share ranked third among all receivers. But, thanks to a combination of the 49ers’ defense, a negative game script, and some periods of heavy rain, he saw just three targets in Week 15, failing to catch any. 

If you were lucky enough to survive Kupp’s dud (probably because you were on bye), the question is now whether he can be trusted in the fantasy football semifinals. As much as I hate to say it, I lean towards yes. Kupp’s usage and production all season have been excellent. This game was obviously awful, but we shouldn’t overreact just because it was a complete zero — no one would be considering benching him if he had posted a more run-of-the-mill terrible game. 

Sneaky Storylines

Xavier’s Usage is Worthy Of Starting

Don’t look now, but Xavier Worthy has established himself as the Chiefs’ clear WR1. He posted an 86% route participation rate in Week 15, his second straight week above 80% after hovering around 70% for most of the season. And he earned targets, too, leading Kansas City’s offense with 11 for a 28% share. He caught six of those targets for 46 yards, also adding a 21-yard rushing TD on a swing pass (plus nine more rushing yards on two other carries).

Worthy has always had the big-play ability to provide a ceiling, but he is finally seeing the usage to also have a bit of a floor. Assuming Patrick Mahomes is good to go (he practiced fully on Tuesday), Worthy is a flex option for Week 16 against the Texans.

Kareem Hunt Isn’t Going Anywhere

Let’s stick in Kansas City for a second with a situation that isn’t as positive as Worthy’s expanded usage. Week 15 marked Isiah Pacheco’s third game since his return from injury. After ramping up in his first two games back, many (myself included) expected the third-year RB to once and for all relegate Kareem Hunt to a satellite role. 

Instead, Hunt and Pacheco saw nearly identical usage. They both played 37% of the team’s snaps, handled 13 carries, and saw one target. Hunt ran one more route than Pacheco, but they both trailed behind Samaje Perine in terms of passing-down usage. Instead of having an exciting young workhorse back on one of the league’s best offenses, we now have two RBs in a 50/50 timeshare, with a receiving back tacked on for good measure, in a fairly unexciting offense. Until something changes, both Hunt and Pacheco are just flex options. 

Temper Expectations For Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford is the hot pickup of the week, for good reason. Nick Chubb broke his foot in the Browns’ Week 15 loss, leaving Ford as Cleveland’s undisputed RB1. Following the veteran’s exit, Ford played 83% of the offensive snaps and handled every backfield touching, finishing with 17.4 Half-PPR points. He should maintain the lead role in this backfield heading into decent matchups with the Bengals and Dolphins.

However, I don’t think we can consider Ford anything more than a risky flex option. After all, we saw him as the Browns’ RB1 for six games before Chubb returned, and that is exactly what he was, averaging just 8.5 points per game. He saw more than 10 carries just once, as D’Onta Foreman was consistently involved on early downs.

Of course, that was in the bad days of the Browns’ offense, with Deshaun Watson under center. But Cleveland is reportedly now turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their starting QB, and DTR is one of just four QBs to actually manage a worse EPA per play than Watson this season. I expect things to be ugly for Cleveland over the next few weeks, and I wouldn’t feel at all comfortable starting Ford in the fantasy football playoffs. 

Early DFS Plays

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

With David Montgomery unfortunately done for the season, Jahmyr Gibbs should be fully unleashed in the Lions’ offense. He currently ranks as the RB4 in Half-PPR points per game despite having a 48% RB rush share and a 54% snap rate. Montgomery wasn’t just claiming ugly, early-down touches, either, as he had an 8.4% target share and 17 goal-line carries on the season. 

Together, “Sonic and Knuckles” have averaged an absurd 32.2 Half-PPR points per game. I don’t expect Gibbs to do exactly that while Montgomery is sidelined … but he might get close. He is a no-brainer at anything less than RB1 overall prices.

TE Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars

Last week, Strange was a popular punt DFS tight end, as he was stepping in as the Jaguars’ TE1 with Evan Engram done for the season. He came through, catching 11 of 12 targets for 73 yards. Unsurprisingly, this caused his prices to skyrocket across the board, but I still don’t think they have risen enough. 

With Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis done for the year, I see no reason that Strange (a recent second-round pick with solid athletic chops, by the way) can’t continue to rack up targets as Mac Jones’ safety blanket. Especially in a matchup with the Raiders, who have struggled to defend tight ends all season, I don’t see how he could possibly be $100 cheaper than Noah Fant on DraftKings. 

QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Somehow, a few weeks of watching Joe Flacco from the bench hasn’t turned Anthony Richardson into a competent NFL passer. He has completed exactly 50% of his passes since reclaiming the starting job. However, one thing has changed: His rushing usage is way up. The Colts have clearly realized that they might as well lean into the one area where Richardson is legitimately elite, and he is averaging nine carries for 47 yards and a touchdown over the last four weeks.

That kind of rushing usage is massive for his fantasy value — we can just do the math and see that he is scoring 10 points per game on rushing alone. But on this week’s DraftKings slate, Richardson is priced at $100 cheaper than Kirk Cousins and at the exact same price as Carson Wentz. While his median outing might be similar to those players, his rushing usage comes with a massive ceiling. The Colts have a 23.5-point team total in a matchup with the Titans this week. All it will take is another rushing touchdown and one or two successful deep passes for Richardson to be a massive value at his current prices.