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NFL Bets week 17

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Source of my betting simulations -> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

29-19-2 Against the Spread

Week 17 Starting Bankroll $190.73
TB -7.5 -112 @ $10 
IND -7.5 -110 @ $10 
GB +1 -115 @ $10
MIA -6.5 -110 @ $10
^parlay +1189 @ $5

Week 16 Starting Bankroll $197.03
MIN -3 -115 @ $10 push
DET -6.5 -115 @ $10 win $8.70
HOU +3.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +567 @ $5 loss

Week 15 (Bankroll $223.56)
NYG +16 -112 @ $10 loss
IND +4 -112 @ $10 loss (thanks JT…)
GB -2.5 -118 @ $10 win $8.47
SF ML -148 @ $10 loss
^parlay +1009 @ $5 loss

Week 14 (Bankroll $290.38)
LV +7 -112 @ $20 loss
CAR +12.5 -110 @ $20 win $18.18
ATL +5 -112 @ $20 loss
TEN -3.5 -112 @$20 loss
^parlay +1194 @ $5 loss

Week 13 (Bankroll $342.52)
LV +13 -112 @ $20 win $17.86
IND -2.5 -120 @ $20 loss
SF +7 -115 @ $20 loss
^parlay +548 @ $10 loss

Week 12 (Bankroll $345.25)
TEN +8.5 -110 @ $10 win $9.09
PIT -3.5 -110 @ $20 loss
TB -6 -110 @ $20 win $18.18
^parlay +595 @ $10 loss

previous Week 11 (Bankroll $366.32)
BUF -2.0 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
ATL +2.5 -108 @ $10 loss
GB -6.5 -108 @ $10 loss
^parlay +602 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 10 (Bankroll $408.46)
Bal -6.0 -112 @ $20 loss
NE +6.0 -112 @ $20 win +17.86
DET -3.5 -108 @ $20 loss
^parlay +590 @ $20 loss

Previous Week 9 (Bankroll $322.34)
TB +8.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
NE +3.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
WSH -3.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^parlay +590 @ $10 win +59.00

Previous Week 8 (Bankroll $305.62)
IND +5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
BUF -3 -110 @ $10 win 
 +9.09
WSH +3 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

49ers general manager John Lynch said the team is "very interested" in re-signing LB Dre Greenlaw.
Greenlaw played in just two games last season, suffering from Achilles discomfort stemming from a torn Achilles that occurred during Super Bowl LVIII last year. The 27-year-old has spent the first six seasons of his career with the 49ers, starting the majority of his games next to Fred Warner. He is one of the team's upcoming free agents and Lynch indicated the team is interested in having him back, though Greenlaw may still test free agency as the start of the league year rolls around.
(Feb 26 -- NBC Sports)

Danielle Hunter Interested In Signing Extension With Texans
Danielle Hunter inked a two-year deal with the Texans last offseason, and the veteran pass rusher is hoping to extend his stay in Houston beyond the 2025 campaign. According to Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda.com, Hunter is interested in signing an extension with the Texans. [RELATED: Texans To Prioritize Extension For Derek Stingley Jr.] Hunter is […]
(Feb 26 -- Pro Football Rumors)

NFL Preps First-Down Tech for 2025, Chain Gang Sidelined
The NFL expects to adopt automated measurement of potential first-down calls in 2025, league officials told reporters on Wednesday, but fans will still have plenty of chances to get irrationally upset with human refs. While cameras will replace the chain gang in determining whether the first down line-to-gain was reached a major tech development for the
(Feb 26 -- Yahoo Sports)

Trace McSorley is returning to Penn State as assistant quarterbacks coach
Trace McSorley was a three-year starter for the Nittany Lions (2016-18) and a sixth-round pick by Baltimore in the 2019 NFL draft.
(Feb 26 -- Yahoo Sports)

NFL mulls changes to OT, adds first-down tracking
The NFL is mulling changes to overtime rules to decrease the coin-toss advantage, and the league plans to use its virtual measuring system to determine first downs.
(Feb 26 -- ESPN)

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