Playoff NFL DFS Building Blocks: Wild Card Weekend

We have made it to the NFL playoffs and Wild Card Weekend! Although it will take place over three days, we have a decently sized six-game “main” slate for this week, which I will be treating as a classic slate. Later in the playoffs, we’ll have to start getting into the dynamics of small slates and Showdown DFS, but for now, it’s business as usual. Let’s get started! 

Game Overviews

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

Projected Totals: Chargers 22.5, Texans 19.5

As far as playoff matchups go, this is an uninspiring one. Does anyone actually believe either of these teams has a real shot at making, let alone winning, the Super Bowl? The Texans have looked straight-up bad in recent weeks, making the playoffs with a point differential of exactly zero thanks to the ineptitude of the rest of the AFC South. The Chargers have a bit more life, which is reflected in the fact that they are road favorites as the lower seed, but they still aren’t a hugely inspiring team in terms of talent. With all that said, there are still some DFS options to consider in this matchup. 

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert is a totally fine play, but I’m not that interested in him. He had exactly zero top-five weekly finishes all season. In theory, ceiling might matter less on a short slate with fewer options, but there are still enough top-tier fantasy QBs on this slate that I struggle to see even a solid week from Herbert being part of winning lineups. With that said, I still vastly prefer Herbert to C.J. Stroud. Stroud is the second-cheapest starting QB on this slate, but I have zero interest in playing him with how his sophomore season has gone.

Running Backs

J.K. Dobbins is back for the Chargers, and he finished the season with solid usage over the final two weeks. However, Gus Edwards will also be available after missing those last two weeks, and the Texans’ defense is a tough matchup for running backs. Dobbins isn’t a must-avoid, but I don’t love him this week. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon continues to see absolutely elite volume, but his fantasy production fell off a cliff along with the rest of the Texans’ offense over the last month of the season. Still, volume is much more predictable than efficiency, and I wouldn’t be surprised if most people are avoiding Mixon. If you can stomach it, he’s not the worst play. 

Wide Receivers

The Chargers’ passing offense starts and ends with Ladd McConkey … or does it? Quentin Johnston seems to have emerged as a genuine second threat next to the electric rookie. Both Ladd (as a mid-range WR) and QJ (as a value piece) are playable this week, with Johnston being especially cheap (and popular) on DK. The Texans’ passing offense actually does start and end with Nico Collins, but even he was also affected by Houston’s offensive offensive struggles to end the season. That means he is particularly cheap on Yahoo, but I am not against him as a pay-up WR on all sites — the Chargers have been weak against receivers, and the Texans will need their best player if they want to get anything done on Saturday. The rest of the Texans’ receivers are cheap enough to be intriguing; the question is who to target. In Week 17 (Houston rested their starters in Week 18), John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson both posted solid route participation rates. But could we see Robert Woods get involved or even Diontae Johnson make an impact after having arrived in Houston just a few weeks ago? Personally, I lean toward trusting the usage we’ve seen, meaning I like Metchie and Hutchinson as punt plays. 

Tight Ends

The Chargers’ lead receiving tight end is Will Dissly. He had a solid outing in Week 18 but also has posted plenty of duds. On the other side, Dalton Schultz’s role has expanded thanks to all of the Texans’ injuries at wide receiver. Both of these guys are playable mid-range TEs but not my favorite options. 

Defenses

The Texans are tied for the second-lowest total on the slate and the Chargers’ defense is only the fourth-most expensive option, so they project to be popular for good reason. I also don’t hate the Texans’ defense. They are cheap, and LA’s offense certainly isn’t one of the scariest on this slate. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Projected Totals: Steelers 16.5, Ravens 26.5

You read that right, this playoff matchup between two relatively healthy teams has a 10-point (technically 9.5-point) spread. The Steelers are limping into the playoffs with four straight losses, while the Ravens are a juggernaut. With that said, this is a divisional matchup, and Pittsburgh actually beat these Ravens back in Week 11. Unfortunately, the most likely way the Steelers can keep this game close is by making it ugly, meaning we have very limited shootout potential.

Quarterbacks

Maybe I’m crazy, but I don’t hate Russell Wilson as the cheapest starting QB on the slate. The Ravens’ turnaround from atrocious to elite in terms of pass defense has came against a very soft end-of-season schedule, and Wilson has been a solid enough fantasy option when George Pickens is healthy.  With that said, Russ still has a very low ceiling compared to some of the names on this slate. One of those high-ceiling names is on the other side of this matchup, as we all know that Lamar Jackson can rack up points. He’s definitely in play if you can find the cash, although he’s not my favorite option — the two most likely game scripts for this one are the Ravens winning big (in which case Lamar can relax) or the Steelers keeping it ugly and close (in which case Lamar might not hit a huge game). 

Running Backs

Especially given the likely game script in this one, I prefer Jaylen Warren to Najee Harris. They are priced similarly, but Warren has seen better usage (especially in the passing game) in recent weeks. With that said, neither is a particularly appealing play. Derrick Henry, on the other hand, is always appealing, especially when the Ravens are big favorites like this. The King slowed down in the second half of the season but did finish strong with back-to-back big outings. He’s still more boom-or-bust than we would usually hope for from such an expensive running back, but his booms are so explosive that he is absolutely worth considering.  

Wide Receivers

I’m into George Pickens this week. As I said, I don’t fully buy the Ravens’ turnaround in terms of pass defense, and we know that the Steelers will likely be playing from behind. Pickens has been MIA in recent weeks, but we know he has an elite ceiling when he puts it all together. If you want to consider another Pittsburgh WR, it’s Calvin Austin, but I won’t be doing that. Meanwhile, the Ravens will be without Zay Flowers. Rashod Bateman projects to be very popular and is a solid play, but the big question is whether there is a playable value WR2 in this offense. Nelson Agholor is the first name that comes to mind, but he was a healthy scratch in Week 18. Tylan Wallace served as the Ravens’ WR2 following Flowers’ injury in that game, and he is my preferred punt WR from the Ravens this week.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth has seen very solid target shares in recent weeks. However, he is expensive, except on FD. He’s playable, but by no means a smash. Mark Andrews is the most expensive TE on all three sites, but he is also still definitely worth considering. He’s not back to his old self but has seen solid usage especially in the red zone. However, I actually prefer Isaiah Likely this week. He is super cheap and a good candidate to take some of the underneath targets normally claimed by Flowers. 

Defenses

The Ravens’ defense is expensive, but we have to consider them given the Steelers’ pitiful total. The Steelers’ defense is the cheapest on the slate, but it’s still hard to want to play them against this elite Ravens offense. 

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

Projected Totals: Broncos 19.5, Bills 28.5

We have another game with a huge spread here, as the Bills are projected to dominate the Broncos. These have been two frustrating offenses for fantasy all season, with very few bankable pieces from week to week. But they both still have some tempting options for this playoff slate. 

Quarterbacks

Bo Nix is not unplayable, especially because he still has non-negligible rushing upside. But I probably won’t play him much in this low-total spot outside of maybe one full Broncos stack. Josh Allen is Josh Allen. Even against a tough Denver defense, he has probably the highest floor and highest ceiling of any QB on this slate. He’s expensive and hard to stack but still absolutely playable in all formats. 

Running Backs

The Broncos have too many running backs. Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams, and Audric Estime will all probably be involved. Over the last two weeks of the season, Williams was mostly phased out of the rushing game, but we know that things can change in an instant. McLaughlin is the only member of this group I would really consider, as he is cheap and has led in usage recently, but he’s still hugely risky. Meanwhile, James Cook just keeps hitting huge games on frankly terrible usage. At this point, we have to acknowledge that his combination of situation and talent means he is capable of outperforming his expected scoring … but I’m still not that into him (except on DK, where he is cheaper than the other two sites).

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton has seen a 24%+ target share in nine of the Broncos’ last ten games. That is absolutely elite usage, and he will definitely be involved as Denver tries to keep up with the Bills here, making him a very solid play. I know that he has been performing well recently, but I simply can’t get behind Marvin Mims, who has still yet to post even a 50% route participation rate this season. The big-play ability is enticing, but both his salaries and projected rostership are higher than I can stomach. For the Bills, Keon Coleman is my favorite receiver play. It’s a little concerning that he played all of their Week 18 game while most of their usual starters rested, but he also paced the team in route participation rate in Week 17. In fact, Coleman is the only Buffalo receiver I am particularly into. Amari Cooper is not playing anything close to a full-time role, and Khalil Shakir projects to be massively rostered compared to his price and usage when everyone is healthy. Both of those guys (not to mention Mack Hollins) could certainly have huge games, but I don’t want to chase that hope. 

Tight Ends

The Broncos don’t have a playable tight end, but the Bills might have two. Dawson Knox trended downward the last time we saw him, but he has been more involved since Dalton Kincaid’s midseason injury. Meanwhile, Kincaid has been a huge bust all season, but he sees decent usage and isn’t too expensive. Knox is a valid dart throw, and Kincaid is a playable mid-range option.

Defenses

I’m not interested in the Broncos’ defense against Allen and Co. The Bills’ defense is a bit more intriguing, but they are expensive and project to be heavily rostered, and Denver’s offense really isn’t that bad. 

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Totals: Packers 20.5, Eagles 25.5

On the one hand, this is a potentially exciting matchup with tons of offensive talent on both sides. On the other hand, both of these teams have solid defenses and absolutely love to run the ball. If things go right, this could be a fantasy explosion. If they go wrong, a lot of the high-priced players in this game will disappoint.  

Quarterbacks

If I were to make a case for Jordan Love, I would point out that he ranks ninth in the NFL in fantasy points per dropback. Given that the Packers are underdogs, he might get a fair few dropbacks in this one, allowing him to have a solid game. On the other hand, the Eagles’ defense has been excellent, and Love simply hasn’t been producing (again, mostly due to a lack of volume).  He’s an option given his low price, but be prepared to be disappointed. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is almost flying slightly under the radar on this slate. This is a bad matchup, but his Tush Push TD equity makes Hurts less vulnerable to matchups than most QBs. He’s absolutely in play, especially if it appears that he will be the least rostered of the big four rushing QBs on this slate. 

Running Backs

If Matt LaFleur gets his way, Josh Jacobs is going to see at least 20 carries this week. That means he is absolutely in play on all formats. However, I will note that the Eagles have been very tough on opposing backs, and his DK price is a bit high. Saquon Barkley should also see elite volume and can be played anywhere if you can find the cash.

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson has unfortunately torn his ACL, so the Packers will be relying on Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks this week. Except on Yahoo, Reed is a bit expensive for my liking — he has big-play ability, but his role just isn’t that good. I would rather play Doubs (who is slightly cheaper) or Wicks (who is way cheaper). With that said, all three Packers receivers are definitely viable plays, even against the Eagles’ tough defense. For Philadelphia, both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have popped up on the injury report this week but are expected to play. I would argue that they are both more talented than their price tags; the issue is just whether the Eagles will have substantial passing volume. Still, they are both absolutely playable. 

Tight Ends

I have seen arguments that Tucker Kraft is less playable with Luke Musgrave back healthy, but Kraft has still posted back-to-back weeks over a 75% route participation rate. He is definitely in play (except on Yahoo) as a relatively cheap TE option. Dallas Goedert is back for the Eagles, but I don’t love him even at decent prices (except on FD, where he’s absurdly expensive). He simply hasn’t produced much when both of Philadelphia’s top WRs are healthy. 

Defenses

I’m not too into the Eagles’ defense against this solid Green Bay offense at high prices. However, the Packers’ defense is cheaper, which makes them at least a bit intriguing — Hurts does rank fourth among qualified QBs in sack rate, so Green Bay’s defense could have some chances if the Eagles fall behind. 

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Totals: Commanders 23.5, Buccaneers 26.5

This game has the highest total of the slate and the individual good plays to back it up. There will be tons of super popular plays on both sides of this game, for good reason. 

Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels against a Buccaneers defense that absolutely hemorrhages points to opposing quarterbacks? Sign me up. This is a smash spot for Daniels who is a great play in all formats. It’s also a great spot for Baker Mayfield, who might go under the radar with the amount of dual-threat QBs on this slate. He is cheap enough to provide meaningful salary relief compared to the top names but has just as much upside, with an absurd eight top-five fantasy finishes on the season. Both of these QBs are absolutely in play.

Running Backs

On the one hand, Brian Robinson at relatively cheap salaries against a bad Tampa Bay defense is tempting. On the other hand, Robinson has been hugely inefficient recently, and Austin Ekeler is back. Robinson is a risky mid-range option, and I also don’t hate Ekeler as one of the cheapest RBs on this slate with real projectable volume. For the Buccaneers, it is officially all about Bucky Irving. Rachaad White didn’t even record a touch in Week 18. With elite volume, efficiency, and situation at non-top-tier prices, Irving might end up in every single one of my lineups this weekend. 

Wide Receivers

Obviously, Terry McLaurin is the key piece of the Commanders’ passing offense, and he is definitely in play against the Buccaneers’ defense. However, I’m also a bit intrigued by Olamide Zaccheaus, who has served as Washington’s RB2 since Noah Brown’s season ended. He is definitely in play as a pay-down receiver. For the Buccaneers, Mike Evans is the main man. Honestly, he is a bit more expensive (except on FanDuel) than I would have hoped, but he is absolutely still playable. Jalen McMillan has emerged down the stretch as Tampa’s WR2 and is also an option, and even Sterling Shepard is cheap enough (especially on DK) to be intriguing.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz is just a solid receiving tight end with a decent role on an offense that should score plenty of points. On a slate with so many question marks at TE, that makes him a very appealing option. Cade Otton is back for Tampa Bay, but he still projects to be hardly rostered. Given the Buccaneers’ high total, I don’t hate playing him if that projection holds — remember in the middle of the season when he was being crowned a must-start TE?

Defenses

I’m not particularly interested in either the Commanders’ defense or the Buccaneers’ defense — this is not likely to be a defensive matchup. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams

Projected Totals: Vikings 24.5, Rams 22.5

This playoff slate ends with a Monday night showdown between two talented NFC teams. The whole world just watched the Vikings’ offense implode last week, but Sam Darnold has bounced back from terrible outings a few times this year. Can he do it again, or will Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford keep the hopes of another magical run alive?

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold is worth considering this week, even after his meltdown against the Lions. He was productive for most of the season and isn’t too expensive in a decent matchup. I’m less interested in Matthew Stafford, who just wasn’t very productive from a fantasy standpoint this season.

Running Backs

The vibes aren’t great for Aaron Jones, who has been ceding non-negligible work to Cam Akers and hasn’t been his usual efficient self. But he still projects for a good workload at a reasonable price this week, so he’s definitely playable. Kyren Williams, meanwhile, has never been particularly efficient but should dominate the Rams’ backfield even harder (if that’s even possible) with Blake Corum done for the season. He’s also definitely in play. 

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson is awesome and always playable. He’s boom-or-bust, but Jordan Addison is also definitely a viable option. I’m going to mention Jalen Nailor, but he still isn’t running quite enough routes for him to be into him as a value WR option. For the Rams, it’s all about Puka Nacua, who averaged a 36% (!!) target share in the Rams’ last eight games. That insane workload came at the expense of Cooper Kupp, who is now overpriced (except on Yahoo) compared to his recent usage. He’s still technically playable, especially because the Vikings have struggled to defend WRs, but Kupp is unappealing coming off three straight games below a 16% target share. I’m also not interested in Demarcus Robinson.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson is back to a full complement of routes in the Vikings’ offense, but it hasn’t really turned into points. The lack of elite TE options on this slate makes him more appealing than he would be otherwise, but I’m still not likely to play him. The Rams are using a TE-by-committee between Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson which makes them both unplayable. 

Defenses

Both the Vikings’ defense and the Rams’ defense are a little intriguing as mid-range options. We know that Darnold can implode and Minnesota’s defense is aggressive enough to potentially take advantage of the Rams’ terrible O-line.  

Lineups

DraftKings

Cash Game

Let’s start by locking in Bucky, who just projects incredibly well for his price tag. Then I’m going to go Stars and Scrubs for the rest of this lineup. Allen, Barkley, and Puka all just have absurd projected volume, so let’s slam them in. We can find the cash for them by paying down with both of the Baltimore tight ends and Sterling Shepard. That just leaves one WR spot and a D/ST to fill, and there are plenty of ways to finish things off. 

Tournament

Herbert is cheaper on DK than the other sites, so let’s build a stack around him. Of course, we have to stack him with his top target in Ladd, and I’m going to full-commit to a double-stack with QJ as well. I’m tempted to not even include a bring-back with how bad Houston has looked, but Nico Collins is good enough that I’m going to get him in. Let’s also attack the mid-range at both RB spots with Irving and Cook. I also am going to pay all the way down for the Packers’ defense, hoping they can at least record a sack or two of Hurts to come through with a decent score. Now we have $8,300 left with the TE and FLEX spots to fill. There are tons of ways to finish things off. We could add to our game stack with Schultz/Dissly/Metchie, pay down at TE with Likely, or pay down at FLEX with someone like Shepard or Wicks. The world is your oyster. 

FanDuel

Cash Game

Freiermuth jumps out as being cheaper here than on the other two sites, and I’m going to once again lock Bucky in at running back. Mike Evans is also slightly cheaper here relative to both DK and Yahoo, and this is the only site where Saquon isn’t the highest-priced RB, so let’s get them both in. We need to pay down a bit now, so let’s get the WR1s on the two best offenses on this slate for super cheap: Bateman and Coleman. If we pay down for the Texans’ defense, we are left with just QB and FLEX spots to fill. Personally, I like Likely for a double-TE build, but there are certainly other viable options.  

Tournament

I can’t not do it at least once, so let’s build a stack around the team with the highest total on the slate: Buffalo. Allen and Coleman are locks, but I’ll also add in Kincaid against my better judgment. Sutton is the obvious choice as a bring-back, although I’m a bit tempted by McLaughlin. Mixon and Jacobs aren’t players I love, but they’re both cheaper here than on the other sites, so let’s slam them both in. If Jacobs is eating, that means the Packers have a lead, so hopefully A.J. Brown also gets there. That leaves us missing just a FLEX (which will have to be a value play) and a D/ST — there are options. 

Yahoo

Cash Game

As always, there are multiple players far cheaper on Yahoo then the other two sites. Reed jumps out, as do Pickens and Kupp. Likely at 1$ above the minimum is also simply too cheap to pass up. Of course, we have to use all this cash we’ve saved somewhere, and I’ll use it at the top with Allen, Henry, and Irving. We now once again have just a DST slot and a FLEX left and only $28 to play with. Thankfully, there are plenty of viable value plays at both spots to make that work. 

Tournament

The Packers are “undervalued” across the board on Yahoo — in this case, I’ll go with Love, Reed, and Jacobs in particular. That does mean they’ve been underperforming, but I’m going to hope they come through. For that to happen, they’ll need increased passing volume, which means the Eagles have a lead, which means Saquon. I’m actually going to round out the Green Bay onslaught with Jacobs and get in another Eagle in A.J. Brown. This lineup is a complete bet that Green Bay and Philly open up their offenses a bit more with their seasons on the line. We do need some value, so let’s go with a $21 Houston pairing in Metchie and the Texans’ defense. I’ve actually only left one spot, but there are plenty of mid-range TE options. If you want to get different in another way, I recommend scaling back the game stack by replacing AJB and Jacobs with other pay-up options (Bucky? Puka).