Week 8 Tipsy Picks
Extreme values. Miracle dependent plays. One-off shots off the beaten path!
You’ll need a few beers or a stiff pour of bourbon to stomach these picks… so let’s let’s crack that beer and dive right in!
Tipsy QBs
Baker Mayfield $6,100 vs LVR (2.2%)
OBJ out? Still no Chubb? Super chalk at the top with Mahomes, Jimmy Grapes, and Tannehill? Give me all the Baker this week. This Browns squad has been overlooked going into week 8. First they are 5-2 and have the seventh best record in the NFL. Being buried behind Pitt and Baltimore, people forget they are actually contending this year. Vegas gives up the 27th most yards through the air and the Browns give up the 28th most. Only the weather could stop this game from being a defensive crapshow of air-yard explosiveness. Watch that weather report if you’re thinking of using him in anything besides a Multi-Entry contest. (Shout to Derek Carr for all the same reasons)
Cam Newton $5,700 vs BUF (3.6%)
My 49ers put an embarrassing beatdown on Cam and the Patriots last week. Edelman is out and Buffalo is the cream at the top of the division. All this to say Cam won’t be taken by the public. He will have to be a one man show with a little James White if they want to compete. High winds will make them focus on the run game and we all know Cam IS the run game. I’m willing to load him up in a solo spot in a matchup that might be better than expected.
Under Owned Favorites
Aaron Rodgers
Derek Carr
Justin Herbert
All three of these guys around 4-5% are way too low owned. I could make a case for each one as a pivot off the top end guys.
Tipsy RBs
Devin Singletary $5,100 vs NEP (1.5%)
This is tipsy, like very tipsy. His carries have not been in double digits the last two weeks, he’s been mostly completely disappointing this year. And Chris is going to get pissy with me for picking him. But check it, Patriots got SHREDDED by Jeff Wilson last week for 112 yards and 3 TD. The Pats have been beat on the ground rather handily this year and the weather could force the teams into more run heavy offenses. One more week, drop Singletary in there in a great spot.
James White $4,500 vs BUF (1.9%)
High winds against a team that struggles against the middle of the field and NE has no real TE and Edelman is out? This screams dump offs and crossing routes for James White. There are a ton of upper and upper mid-tier guys this week at WR and RB that I want to get in my lineups so I need salary relief somewhere and this is a nice spot to get it!
Nyheim Hines $4,000 vs DET (0.7%)
Ever just have a gut feeling? I dislike the Lions, and they dislike playing good defense against the RBs. Plenty of love and action on Jonathan Taylor but I think there is enough room for Hines to get into the action this week too. The only proof I have that this is a good play is on this bottle of 97 proof bourbon…
Tipsy WRs
Deonte Harris $3,300 vs NO (0.1%)
No Thomas or Sanders means someone has to catch the ball from Drew Brees. For some reason this team hates Smith so I am on Harris being the guy this week. Calloway put up 8 for 75 last week and guess what? He is out too! You can’t run 100% of the offense through Kamara so I am on Harris for a super cheap play with 5x upside if he scores.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling $3,800 @ MIN (1.1%)
The Vikings are a treasure trove of goodness for us to play WRs against. Lazard is out this time around so that secondary target should be MVS. He already put up 96 yards and TD in week 1 and I love him to repeat. He has cooled off since week 1 but I have that feeling he is ready again to haul off a few deep completions straight into your GPP victories!
John Brown $4,400 vs NEP (2.2%)
Brown may have faded from DFS players minds as he hasn’t caught a pass since week 4. His 3 healthy games this year saw him take down 14 catches on 21 targets for 194 yards and 2 TDs. He appears healthy this week and will provide some nice targets with Diggs getting coverage on the outside and Cole Beasley being very efficient all year. He should avoid Gilmore in coverage and could have a nice game here.
Josh Reynolds $3,100 vs MIA (5.0%)
Let everyone else fight over Woods or Kupp, I am on Josh. Scores in 2 straight games and I think a 3rd is coming. He has secured a spot in this offense and is never talked about. He’s averaging over 5 targets a game and fills out the bottom end of salary requirements nicely.
Salary Saving TEs
Greg Olsen- $3,600 an ignored part of a high flying offense
Harrison Bryant- $3,200 high winds could mean quick, short passes
Irv Smith- $3,000 Vikings 3rd receiver essentially. 5 targets 4 catches both of the last two games.
Tipsy Defense
I’m at Buffalo and NO with the field this week but if you want to go low and under owned…
Chicago $2,800 vs NO Besides Kamara they really have nothing left…
Detroit $2,500 vs IND You know my rule. ANYONE against Rivers for a pick 6