Week 4 Fantasy Football Recap: King Henry Rides Again

Top Performances

Derrick Henry: 34.4 Half-PPR Points

King Henry looked like his old self on Sunday night, scoring an 87-yard TD on the Ravens’ first play of the game and never looking back. Henry finished the game with 24 rushing attempts for 199 yards, plus three receptions for 10 yards and another touchdown.

It is worth noting that Henry is seeing usage very similar to his final year with the Titans in that he is consistently off the field on passing downs. He has just a 54% snap rate, 30th among RBs. As we saw in Week 1 against the Chiefs, he can find himself phased out if the Ravens fall behind. However, that’s not likely to happen often. The Ravens look like one of the best teams in the NFL, so Henry should have many more big days ahead of him.

Justin Fields: 31.98 Half-PPR Points

Fields’ situation is the opposite of Henry’s in terms of what game script we want for fantasy production. In the first three weeks of the season, the Steelers won comfortably on the back of strong defensive performances, so he didn’t have to do much. In Week 4, the Steelers trailed for the first time, and he exploded.

Going forward, I expect to see more close games for the Steelers, which means more chances for Fields to rack up fantasy points. He is still eighth among starting quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback, largely thanks to the fact that he is averaging nearly 10 rushing attempts per game. As long as that usage continues (and he holds onto his starting job), Fields should be a QB1 going forward. 

D’Andre Swift: 26.0 Half-PPR Points

Swift’s wasn’t one of the absolute top statistical performers of the week, but he deserves a shoutout given the circumstances. Heading into Week 4, Swift was one of the biggest fantasy busts of the season, and rumors were that the Bears would give Roschon Johnson a shot at the lead job.

Instead, Swift had easily his best game of the season so far, racking up 165 all-purpose yards and a touchdown on 23 touches. He also graded positively in terms of efficiency, a huge change from the first three weeks in which he was arguably the league’s worst rusher. 

With that said, I view this as a sell-high opportunity for Swift. His history of inefficiency on the ground is longer than three weeks, as he has been a below-average rusher for years now. It’s more likely that the Rams’ defense is simply that bad than that he has turned over a new leaf. Moreover, it’s often only a matter of time once a team threatens to bench an RB once. Now is the time to move Swift if you roster him.

Biggest Duds

Mark Andrews: 0.0 Half-PPR Points

I didn’t have to change this heading, as Andrews has now posted absolute donuts in back-to-back weeks. And unlike in Weeks 1 and 2, his peripheral numbers have been just as bad as his production: His route participation rate has been 30% or below in each of the last two weeks. The former TE1 overall is droppable in shallow leagues, and we’re only one more bad week away from him being droppable in all Redraft formats.  

Breece Hall: 2.8 Half-PPR Points

This was a big L for me, as I was hoping for Breece to have a huge week in a game where the Jets were heavily favored. Instead, he managed a grand total of four yards on 10 carries as the Jets lost to the Broncos 10-9. Hall’s elite receiving usage wasn’t enough to salvage anything from this week either, as he caught just two of five targets for 14 yards. 

The most concerning part of Hall’s terrible outing is that Braelon Allen looked, not for the first time, like the straight-up better runner. The rookie now leads Hall by a wide margin in everything from PFF Rush Grade (91.1 vs. 51.8) to SumerSports’ yards created (+0.96 vs. -0.48) to good old-fashioned yards per carry (5.05 vs. 3.62). The Jets’ coaches are actively talking about getting Allen more involved, and his role is clearly more than just giving Hall the occasional breather. 

I’m not saying to panic on Hall. His elite explosiveness and great receiving usage still make him a weekly RB1. But it’s currently looking very unlikely that he is the truly elite RB managers were drafting him to be.

De’Von Achane: 4.4 Half-PPR Points

After the first two weeks of the season, Achane looked set to be a league-winning pick. Over the last two weeks, with Tua Tagovailoa injured, he’s managed just 5.9 points per game. With the Dolphins’ offense struggling to find any rhythm, his volume and efficiency have both plummeted. At this point, Achane is a risky boom-or-bust flex play until Tua comes back.

Looking ahead to when Tua is back, it’s hard to know what to expect from Achane. His usage, especially in the receiving game, was incredible in Weeks 1 and 2. But one of those weeks was with Raheem Mostert out, and Achane’s efficiency has fallen straight from historic as a rookie to below average. It’s difficult to separate running back efficiency from situation, but Achane’s massive fall-off is too big to be entirely situation-based. He may be worth buying low on, especially for fantasy mangers who have started hot and can wait out the Tua injury … but don’t pay too much expecting a truly game-breaking ceiling.

Sneaky Storylines

Jordan Whittington Has Arrived

Over the offseason, sixth-round Rams rookie Jordan Whittington received some hype as the “next Puka Nacua,” as the buzz surrounding his training camp performances felt eerily similar to Nacua’s a year earlier. However, he started the season absolutely buried on the depth chart and still played a part-time role even after both Nacua and Cooper Kupp were sidelined by injury.

That changed in Week 4, as Whittington jumped from his 34.5% Week 3 route participation rate all the way to a team-leading 87.5%. He also led the team in targets, catching six of eight for 62 yards. His first-read target rate of 20.0% wasn’t as great as his other numbers, but that will double next week with the way things are going. Whittington is someone to add now in deeper leagues.  

Taysom Hill May Be the Hero the TE Position Needs

For someone who scored two touchdowns at a position absolutely dying for fantasy production, Taysom Hill is going massively under the radar. To be fair, this does make some sense. Hill has a history of having random TD-based spike weeks, and he did only touch the ball six times (all carries) for 24 yards. 

However, that’s underselling how involved Hill was in the Saints’ game plan. This was his first game back healthy, and he exited early with a rib injury. Before the injury, which occured early in the second quarter, Hill played 15 of a possible 25 snaps, tallying two routes to go with his six carries. With his massive goal-line equity and the Saints’ improved offense, that may be a big enough role for Hill to meet the suddenly very low standards to be a TE1. He’s worth adding, assuming his rib injury stays minor.  

Ladd McConkey is Officially the Chargers’ WR1

This one isn’t hugely under the radar, but I haven’t seen many people talking about the 34th-overall pick’s outing. Although this week was only marginally better than his Week 1 debut (in both he caught five of seven targets and scored a touchdown), McConkey’s peripherals reached a new level in Week 4.

He led the Chargers in route participation (82.8%), target share (25.9%), and first-read target share (33.3%). Each of those numbers is up from his averages in Weeks 1 through 3, especially the route participation rate. McConkey’s production so far has been just okay, so now is the time to trade for the rookie before he has a true breakout game.

Early DFS Plays

RB Trey Sermon, Indianapolis Colts

This one is fairly obvious. Jonathan Taylor suffered a high ankle sprain on Sunday, which will likely keep him sidelined for at least one week. While JT is out, Sermon should step into the lead role for the Colts’ offense. At backup prices on all sites for a matchup against the floundering Jaguars, the former 49er will be a no-brainer value play. 

RB Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks

Any concerns that Walker would not produce in his return from injury were put to bed on Monday night. He racked up over 30 fantasy points on an imposing Lions run defense, making the most of his 19 carries and four receptions. 

Walker’s usage was also very strong, as he played 60% of available snaps, handled 12 of the Seahawks’ 14 RB rush attempts, and posted a 47% route participation rate. All of those numbers should only go up moving forward after how he performed yesterday in his first game back from injury.

The fact that Walker is only $400 more expensive on DraftKings than Zach Charbonnet, who was relegated to a pure backup role on Monday despite his solid performances in Walker’s absence, is crazy. Get him into your lineup for a good matchup with the Giants.

WR Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers

At this point, I’m just going to play Johnson every week until his price rises. Since Andy Dalton took over as the Panthers’ QB in Week 3, Diontae ranks fourth in Half-PPR points, second in expected Half-PPR points, second in targets, second in air yards, seventh in receptions, fifth in yards … you get the picture. 

Johnson has always been a truly elite separator, and now he finally has the right situation to thrive. With the Red Rifle at the helm of an offense that will be playing from behind early and often, Johnson should continue to rank near the top of the league in targets. He’s outside the top 10 in salary on every site, which I will happily take.