NFL DFS Building Blocks – Week 5
With Week 5 comes the start of the byes (plus a London game), so we will have fewer options this week than so far this season. That means chalk will be chalkier, and picking the right places to get different is extra important. Let’s get started!
Game Overviews
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Projected Totals: Panthers 18.5, Bears 22.5
This is an interesting matchup. You can talk yourself into a lot of the pieces in this game, but most of them come with very low floors. In general, I mostly recommend playing these teams in large-field tournaments over cash games.
Quarterbacks
I honestly don’t think Andy Dalton is getting the respect he deserves. He has averaged over 20 fantasy points in his two starts, which would land him in the top five quarterbacks for the season. But he is still priced outside the top 10 QBs on all sites, including all the way down at QB17 on DraftKings. The Bears’ defense is better than both of the teams the Red Rifle has faced so far, but I still don’t hate the idea of building a stack with Dalton and a weapon or two for large-field tournaments. A similar approach is also correct for Caleb Williams. He has the weapons, talent, and matchup to potentially explode. But what we’ve seen so far makes him too risky for a cash game play.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift exploded last week and has a good matchup this week. However, it’s hard to overlook his massive struggles over the first three weeks. Again, he’s more of a tournament play than a cash option. Chuba Hubbard, on the other hand, has been excellent since Dalton took over, combining elite usage with plus efficiency. His price has risen, and this matchup is tougher than the last two, but he can still be played in all formats.
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson has looked like a legit top 10, if not top five, fantasy receiver with Dalton under center. He’s had elite production and the peripherals to back it up. He’s best played on DK at a slightly cheap price, but he can be played on all sites. Xavier Legette is also intriguing as a first-round rookie playing a full-time role, but he’s more of a tournament play than a cash option. On the Bears’ side, things are tricky. D.J. Moore has the talent and role to have a big game, but he has struggled to get on the same page with Williams (and/or Shane Waldron). This good matchup makes him an option, but he is not without risk. Keenan Allen returned from injury last week, and he and Rome Odunze both posted route participation rates below 70%. That kind of usage makes them both high-risk/high-reward tournament plays. Of the two, I prefer Odunze, who has lower salaries across the board and is more explosive than the veteran.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet has had one huge game and three massive duds. Again, he’s a high-risk/high-reward option. There’s no Panthers TE worth playing.
Defenses
Sticking with my claim that Dalton isn’t getting enough respect, I’m avoiding the Bears’ defense, which is priced as though Bryce Young is still under center. However, I don’t hate the Panthers’ defense. They are one of the cheapest options on the slate, and Chicago’s offense is mistake-prone.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Projected Totals: Bills 23.5, Texans 23.5
A matchup between two powerhouse AFC teams projects to have some fireworks. The question on both sides is where they will come from. With a few key exceptions, both of these teams have been spreading the ball around.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen is either the first or second most expensive QB on the slate on all sites, for good reason. If you can afford him, it’s never a bad idea to have him in your lineup. C.J. Stroud is also expensive, especially given his lackluster fantasy average so far this season. With that said, he projects to be low-rostered and could certainly have a big game if the Bills get ahead early, making him a tournament option.
Running Backs
With Joe Mixon ruled out again, I’m avoiding the Texans’ backfield. Last week, Cam Akers, Dare Ogunbowale, and J.J. Taylor all played between 22% and 39% of snaps. The potential return of Dameon Pierce only muddies things further. Even if there is theoretically value to be found against a weak Bills run defense, the production projects to be too split to be worth chasing. On the Bills’ side, James Cook is a decent option, especially on DK.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins has firmly established himself as the Texans’ top receiver and can be played even at top-three prices. Stefon Diggs will be moderately popular in a potential revenge game, but his usage is not as guaranteed as Collins’, especially with Tank Dell back. I prefer Diggs and Dell as tournament options (perhaps stacked with Stroud) more than in cash. Diggs is much more expensive, which makes sense as Dell is clearly the team’s WR3, but both are capable of a big outing. On the Bills’ side, Khalil Shakir has been ruled out. That makes Mack Hollins, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel more intriguing than usual. All three are cheap, but it’s hard to confidently project volume for any of them. Samuel should be the biggest beneficiary of Shakir’s absence with extra routes from the slot, Coleman has seen the best usage, and Hollins is dirt cheap. All can be mixed in as dart throws for tournaments.
Tight Ends
The real beneficiary of Shakir’s absence may be Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid’s usage (63% route participation rate) hasn’t lived up to preseason hype, but he does see a lot of the same kind of designed touches as Shakir. Honestly, I still hesitate to play someone with such limited usage at top-five TE prices, but that may just be the state of the position. Dalton Schultz is the odd man out in the Texans’ offense.
Defenses
You can’t trust the Bills’ defense or the Texans’ defense in this matchup of high-octane offenses.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Totals: Ravens 25.5, Bengals 23.5
Speaking of high-octane offenses, we have two here in this matchup of AFC North rivals. The Bengals have found their stride with the return of Tee Higgins, while the Ravens continue to win games in the most frustrating way possible for fantasy managers of anyone not named Derrick Henry.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson is expensive and worth it. Joe Burrow, meanwhile, is temptingly cheap. The Ravens’ defense is not as good as it once was, and Burrow is one of the few pocket passers who can provide the ceiling to compete on a slate stacked with dual-threat options. However, he will truly need that ceiling game to keep up.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry has had two straight massive games. He is projected to be widely rostered despite being the highest-priced back on the slate. You can absolutely play him, but he’s also an intriguing fade candidate. We saw in Week 1 against the Chiefs that he is vulnerable to negative game scripts, and that’s not out of the question here with the Ravens on the road in Cincinnati. On the Bengals’ side, Chase Brown is slowly cutting into Zack Moss’ workload. Both are risky plays, although low projected rostership makes them slightly intriguing for tournaments.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase can be played in all formats regardless of his high price. However, I’m more intrigued by Tee Higgins, who has actually led the Bengals in targets since his return. At a much cheaper price, Higgins has nearly as much boom potential as his teammate. For the Ravens, Zay Flowers is the only name to really consider … and even he has been below 40 yards in three of four games.
Tight Ends
Both of these teams have two fantasy-relevant tight ends. As I’ve said before, if you have two fantasy-relevant tight ends, you don’t really have any. I’m avoiding all of Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Mike Gesicki, and Erick All.
Defenses
The AFC North may be known for its defenses, but this is not the week to play the Ravens’ defense or the Bengals’ defense.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Totals: Colts 21.5, Jaguars 23.5
The outlook for both of these teams changes greatly depending on whether Anthony Richardson, questionable with an oblique injury, is able to play. Without him, the Colts are much less explosive … but they may be more efficient. The Jaguars, meanwhile, need a win badly.
Quarterbacks
If he plays, it’s very hard to overlook Anthony Richardson, who is priced as just the QB10 on both DK and FD. Yes, his production has been lackluster since Week 1, but he looked good to start Week 4 before exiting with an injury and his ceiling is still truly elite. Even if Joe Flacco gets the start, it’s hard to get too excited about the vet, who isn’t as cheap as you might hope. It’s also very hard to get excited about Trevor Lawrence, who has been thoroughly mediocre to start the season.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out, meaning Trey Sermon should take the lead in the Colts’ backfield. He will likely be a chalky value play. For the Jaguars, Travis Etienne is someone I’m fading. He’s priced in the top 11 on all three sites and simply hasn’t produced like that. The good matchup also means his rostership projects to be decently high, which I’m happy to fade.
Wide Receivers
If Richardson is in, Alec Pierce is an intriguing dart throw at minimal prices and rostership. If we get Flacco, that’s a big upgrade for Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, who are both cheap for their target-earning ability with a more consistent QB. On the Jaguars’ side, Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. are both decent mid-priced options. Of the two, I actually prefer Kirk, who has seen excellent volume over the last two weeks, although the rookie has more upside.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram, currently questionable, is the only TE to consider from this matchup. Even if Engram does suit up, he’s probably best avoided in his return from a hamstring injury.
Defenses
Both of these offenses have struggled, but neither the Jaguars’ defense nor the Colts’ defense seems ready to take advantage of their solid matchups.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Projected Totals: Dolphins 17.5, Patriots 17.5
This is going to be an ugly one. These two teams rank worst and second-worst in offensive EPA per play. The Dolphins at least have explosive talent, but it’s hard to get excited about a game with a 36-point total.
Quarterbacks
Tyler Huntley would be intriguing as a dual-threat QB at a basement-level price, but he’s priced above several other starting quarterbacks. It’s very hard to play a guy who just recorded less than 100 passing yards in a full NFL game at that price. Jacoby Brissett wouldn’t be intriguing at any price.
Running Backs
If De’Von Achane’s price or projected rostership had slipped lower, I’d recommend the electric sophomore as a high-risk play. But he is projected to be rostered over 10% and is still a top-10 RB by price. Given how terrible he’s been with Tua Tagovailoa out, I’m avoiding him. Raheem Mostert will also be back, but there’s nothing to like about him in this spot. Rhamondre Stevenson is cheap, especially on DraftKings. Buzz that he may be benched for fumble issues should also keep his rostership low. He saw excellent volume in Weeks 1 and 2 and could take advantage of a nice matchup this week.
Wide Receivers
On the Patriots’ side, it’s intriguing that second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk led the team in routes and targets last week. At a super-low price, he’s worth a shot for tournament players. Tyreek Hill is similar to Achane in that his price hasn’t fallen to reflect his production over the last two weeks. However, the key difference is that Tyreek is projected to be less than 5% rostered. He has still seen a massive 42.5% air yards share over the last two weeks, and we know he only needs one play to have a big day. He’s a high-risk option for tournaments. Jaylen Waddle, however, has the same pricing and production issues with less upside, making him mostly unappealing.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry is still the only TE in the league to lead his team in target share, but he has been a complete dud in three of four weeks. Jonnu Smith is not an option.
Defenses
This is, unsurprisingly, where this matchup really shines. The Patriots’ defense and the Dolphins’ defense are both great options, although they have the projected rostership to show for it.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
Projected Totals: Browns 20.5, Commanders 23.5
The Commanders’ offense has been absolutely dominant through four weeks, but the Browns’ defense will be their toughest test yet. The Browns’ offense has been absolutely terrible through four weeks, but the Commanders’ defense will be their easiest test yet. Of all the games on this slate, I’m the least sure about how this one will play out.
Quarterbacks
Arguably, Jayden Daniels should be the most expensive QB on the slate every week. I am slightly concerned about regression hitting in his toughest matchup yet, but it’s essentially impossible to find fault with what we’ve seen from him so far. It’s hard to find anything but fault with Deshaun Watson. Even in a great matchup, I’m not worried about fading him.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson comes into this game questionable, but he has been excellent so far this season. If healthy, he is certainly an option. If he’s out, Austin Ekeler should handle the load and becomes a smash play. For the Browns, Jerome Ford is just cheap enough to be a little tempting in a good matchup. But he’s certainly not without risk, thanks to his inconsistent usage.
Wide Receivers
Cleveland’s passing attack vs. the Commanders’ secondary is a stoppable force vs. a movable object. It’s almost too easy to predict positive regression for Amari Cooper, who is especially cheap on FanDuel. Jerry Jeudy has also quietly been racking up targets and is worth considering given this matchup. Terry McLaurin is a boom-or-bust option. We’ve seen his upside, but it was just two weeks ago that we were panicking about his fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.
Tight Ends
It’s looking like David Njoku will return this week, which makes him an intriguing option in a desolate TE landscape. Zach Ertz was fun as a cheap floor play but is less interesting now that he is priced as a top-12 TE (except on FD).
Defenses
Although I do think there’s a chance the Browns’ defense poses some issues for the Commanders, Washington has been too hot to take that risk. On the other side, the Commanders’ defense has been too terrible to risk playing them even in a decent matchup.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Projected Totals: Cardinals 20.5, 49ers 28.5
Assuming George Kittle (questionable with a rib injury) plays, the 49ers are back to nearly full health (just waiting on some guy on a trip to Germany). With Brock Purdy playing at a new level and in a matchup with the exploitable Arizona defense, it’s not surprising they have the highest total on the slate. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have been annoyingly inconsistent on the offensive end. They will have to get it together to keep pace on the road in San Francisco.
Quarterbacks
I love Brock Purdy this week. He has been playing out of his mind to start the season, and the Cardinals are a top-five matchup for opposing QBs. I’m a little more conflicted on Kyler Murray. His elite ceiling at less than 5% projected rostership is appealing, but we have only actually seen one big game from him so far this season.
Running Backs
Jordan Mason projects, yet again, as one of the most-rostered players on the slate. With elite usage in a great matchup, it’s easy to see why. James Conner gets elite usage and is still a great running back, but he will need the Cardinals to keep it close.
Wide Receivers
This is a great spot for both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, who can be played alone or stacked with Purdy. On the Cardinals’ side, Marvin Harrison Jr. is the only WR to really consider; he can be played in most formats, given his volume.
Tight Ends
These are the two best (and most expensive) tight ends on the slate. Of the two, I prefer Trey McBride to George Kittle. Kittle always has massive upside, but there’s a real risk that he has a quiet game, given his injury and the 49ers being huge favorites.
Defenses
The Cardinals’ defense is obviously off the table. Once you consider their price, the 49ers’ defense should be, too.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Projected Totals: Raiders 16.5, Broncos 18.5
This is an undeniably ugly matchup. The Raiders will be without Davante Adams, Zamir White, and Michael Mayer against an elite defense, while the Broncos have been one of the league’s worst offenses through four weeks.
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew cannot be trusted in good situations; he is absolutely off the table in this matchup. Bo Nix is more worth considering … but only for a second.
Running Backs
With White out, Alexander Mattison should dominate the Raiders’ backfield. His price is okay for his likely workload — the question is whether the Raiders’ offense can get anything at all going. On the Broncos’ side, Javonte Williams is also fairly cheap. It won’t be pretty, but he could make value thanks to volume with the Broncos favored for once.
Wide Receivers
Jakobi Meyers saw a massive 41% target share last week with Davante Adams out. The question is whether he can repeat that performance against Patrick Surtain … I lean no. The obvious next step is to pivot to Tre Tucker, who has essentially zero floor but is an intriguing cheap dart throw on DK and Yahoo. Courtland Sutton is yet another player in this game who projects well from a volume/price standpoint; the question is (again) whether we trust the Broncos’ offense to function effectively.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers was a huge disappointment last week with Adams and Mayer out. His route participation jumped to a new career-high 77%, but he saw just a 12.5% target share. Part of the problem was that, with Mayer out, the rookie found himself in a more traditional, less fantasy-friendly deployment. Bowers is an intriguing post-hype play at around 5% rostership, but he could certainly have another off week. No Broncos TE is worth playing.
Defenses
Both of these defenses are in play. The Broncos’ defense is an obvious choice on FD and DK, while the Raiders’ defense is particularly cheap on Yahoo.
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams
Projected Totals: Packers 25.5, Rams 23.5
If you allow me to cheat and classify Jayden Reed as a slot receiver, both of these teams will miss their top two receivers for this contest. That means lots of value for a game with a decent total.
Quarterbacks
Coming off a four-TD game into a great matchup with the Rams, Jordan Love is an option, even without a few of his weapons. Matthew Stafford, on the other hand, is hard to roster without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Running Backs
This is, in theory, an excellent spot for Josh Jacobs. The only issue is that Emmanuel Wilson has been cutting into his workload. With the Rams leading the league in rushing yards allowed to RBs, Jacobs is still absolutely a play, but his floor could be surprisingly low if Wilson is heavily involved. Meanwhile, Kyren Williams just can’t stop scoring. His truly bonkers TD equity makes him a play every week.
Wide Receivers
Jordan Whittington led the Rams in routes last week, making him a very popular value play this week at bargain prices. There’s always some risk with unproven players, but Whittington did generate plenty of buzz during the preseason. You can make an argument for pivoting off Whittington to TuTu Atwell or Demarcus Robinson, but that’s just a play for large tournaments. For the Packers, Dontayvion Wicks will be very popular with Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson both out (technically doubtful for now). I have always been a Wicks believer, so I’m willing to eat the chalk with him in some places. Jayden Reed is also a great option. Former Seahawk Bo Melton also had incredible per-route metrics last year and is absolutely dirt cheap.
Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft is much cheaper on DK than the other two sites. Coming off a week in which his route participation jumped way up and his production went with it, you can play him as a value on DK and a pivot elsewhere. Colby Parkinson is still running a fair amount of routes, but I’m done listing him as a value option.
Defenses
Neither the Rams’ defense nor the Packers’ defense is particularly appealing.
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks
Projected Totals: Giants 17.5, Seahawks 24.5
The Giants will be without Devin Singletary and Malik Nabers, who have accounted for over half of their scrimmage yards and all but one of their touchdowns. Of course, that could mean value, but it could also mean complete collapse. The Seahawks should find themselves in a very positive game script.
Quarterbacks
Without his top target, Daniel Jones is not an option. Geno Smith looked incredible against the Lions, but he might not need to do much this week.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker came back with an absolute bang on Monday night, and he has another excellent matchup this week. He is one of my top plays on the slate. Zach Charbonnet’s usage with Walker back was too limited to play him despite the matchup. With Singletary out, Tyrone Tracy is an absolute bargain-bin option. It’s not likely to be pretty, but he should see enough volume to pay off.
Wide Receivers
Wan’Dale Robinson has already been seeing an absurd number of targets and could see even more with Nabers out. However, his usage is already past the point of diminishing returns, so he’s by no means a must-play. Any other Giants receiver is just a dart throw. For the Seahawks, both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba can be played, but I worry about their volume as such heavy favorites.
Tight Ends
There’s no relevant TE in this matchup. Sorry, Noah Fant.
Defenses
The Seahawks’ defense is expensive, but they could be worth it against the short-handed Giants. The Giants’ defense is not an option.
Lineups
DraftKings
Cash Game
This is going to be a very chalky lineup, but that’s okay for a cash game. If we start with Sermon and Wicks as players in obvious value spots, as well as Hunter Henry as a pay-down tight end (if you really want to get cheap and don’t mind two Packers, Kraft is also an option), there’s enough money left to have solid options throughout the rest of the lineup. We can start right at the top of the chalkboard with the Broncos’ defense, Walker, and a 49ers’ duo in Purdy and Mason. That leaves two more spots, both of which can be filled with high-volume WRs. Personally, I like Higgins as one of them.
Tournament
I’m going to start with two very cheap WRs from the LA/Green Bay matchup in Whittington and Melton. That allows for paying up big throughout most of the rest of the lineup: Walker again, Bowers, Collins, and even Josh Allen up top. From there, assuming Anthony Richardson is out, Down is a great fourth receiver. That leaves enough money for a pay-up RB and a solid defense.
FanDuel
Cash Game
As mentioned, Ertz is much cheaper on FanDuel than on other sites, so I like using him as a floor play at tight end. Kyler Murray and Courtland Sutton also stand out as being cheaper here, so let’s get them in. We can also go back to the Denver defense. That leaves a ton of money for the remaining spots; let’s use a large chunk of it on Kyren and Ja’Marr Chase. I also like Amari Cooper in the dream matchup with the Commanders. From there, pick your favorite two mid-range options (personally, the Panthers are calling to me), and you will be good to go.
Tournament
Again, let’s start with two very cheap plays to make the rest of this lineup go: Sermon and Melton. I also want to pay up at tight end in tournaments for the upside, so let’s get McBride in there. Speaking of upside, a Daniels/McLaurin stack with Cooper coming back the other way gives us plenty. This is also where I’m going to hit the high-risk/high-reward low-rostership Tyreek Hill button. From there, an elite running back and a good defense will have you ready to go.
Yahoo
Cash Game
Sermon at $10 is too obvious to pass up. Purdy and the Dolphins’ defense also stand out as no-brainer choices. We’ve got to do something with all our money, so how about Mason and Reed? I also like Kincaid here, as his price is only $5 clear of the minimum. Going back to Higgins one more time leaves enough money for two very solid players to round things out.
Tournament
I had to do it somewhere, and Yahoo is weird, so it’s time for the Andy Dalton stack: The Red Rifle + Diontae Johnson, with D.J. Moore coming the other way for his revenge game. Let’s also pivot off the Dolphins’ defense with the Raiders’, who could definitely have a big outing against Bo Nix and Co. Bowers again at tight end makes sense, as does heading back to Walker. Both Whittington and Melton are options at the minimum, but let’s go with Whittington this time. We can then round things out with two absolutely premium options; take your pick.