Week 9 Fantasy Football Recap: Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Breakout For Real?

Top Performances

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 33.5 Half-PPR Points

It’s been a weird sophomore season for JSN. This week, he absolutely exploded for seven catches, 180 yards, and two touchdowns on 13 targets. Those numbers could have been even bigger if not for a few plays called back by penalties. As a result, some fantasy managers are declaring that the first WR selected in the 2023 NFL Draft has officially arrived … but I’m not sure it’s so simple.

This, admittedly awesome, performance was just JSN’s second top-24 finish of the season — he has had more weeks outside the top 50 fantasy WRs (three). JSN also saw a massive 17.5 ADOT this week. He only has one other week in double digits, with a 10.8-yard ADOT in Week 2. Not coincidentally, that is his other top fantasy performance of the season.

The question is whether this change in usage was a fluke (or a result of DK Metcalf being sidelined) or if the Seahawks plan to fully “unleash” JSN going forward. For my part, I’m skeptical of the idea that Smith-Njigba has any sort of hidden WR1 ceiling. He has been just okay so far this year despite playing on the league’s most pass-happy offense, thanks largely to a mediocre 1.70 yards per route run. 

The Seahawks will likely continue to air it out, and JSN will have a few more big games. But I would look to trade him now if someone in your league considers this huge week the beginning of an ascension to weekly dominance. 

Saquon Barkley: 31.4 Half-PPR Points

After that in-depth breakdown of JSN, I really don’t have much to say about Barkley. On Sunday, he ran all over the Jaguars for nearly 200 combined yards and two touchdowns, producing one of the sickest highlights of the season in the process. He is now the RB2 in points per game, just behind Derrick Henry. That’s about where he will likely stay for the rest of the season, as he is absolutely dominating in his new home. 

De’Von Achane: 28.1 Half-PPR Points

One player who could give Saquon and King Henry a run for their money at the top of RB leaderboards is Achane, who has averaged 21.2 Half-PPR points across four games played by Tua Tagovailoa. A huge chunk of Achane’s production is coming through the air, as he has racked up an absolutely absurd 20.4% target share in Tua’s starts. 

On Sunday, Achane also handled all four of Miami’s snaps inside the 10-yard line, recording two goal-line carries in the process. This is a small sample, but fully claiming red zone duties to go with his already bonkers receiving role would truly blow the ceiling off of Achane’s fantasy profile. The sophomore is looking like a top-five RB for the rest of the season, and I’d be hard-pressed to trade him straight up for any other running back in a PPR format. 

Biggest Duds

Kyler Murray: 4.76 Half-PPR Points

If you told me before this game that Kyler managed less than five fantasy points against the Bears, I would have assumed that he and the Cardinals struggled to move the ball against Chicago’s tough defense. 

Instead, Arizona ran all over the Bears to the tune of 213 yards and three rushing touchdowns. As a result, Kyler didn’t have to do much — he hardly contributed on the rushing side, either, with just two carries for six yards. Add in a lost fumble, and we get this terrible fantasy outcome in a game the Cardinals won easily.

Scripts like these are a bit of a concern for Kyler, as the Cardinals have the third-lowest pass rate vs. expected in the league at -5.5%. Their defense is usually bad enough to keep their expected pass rate fairly high, so they rank just eighth-lowest in actual pass rate, but that’s still not ideal. With that said, Murray’s dual-threat ability still makes him a fantasy weapon. He’s not necessarily a must-start weekly option, but he’s a solid QB1 for the rest of the season. 

Puka Nacua: 1.6 Half-PPR Points

I have a rule about not featuring players who suffered injuries in this section, but that does not apply to ejections (even if they’re harsh). In Week 8, Nacua went off on plenty of fantasy benches, catching seven passes for 106 yards on two touchdowns in a “limited” role in his return from injury. 

This week, fantasy managers plugged him back into lineups, and he promptly rewarded us by catching just one pass for 11 yards before being ejected for throwing a “punch.” With that said, although this was obviously a brutal runout in Week 9, it doesn’t affect Nacua’s value going forward. He’s still a must-start receiver for every week where he is active.

Nick Chubb: 4.0 Half-PPR Points

After scoring a touchdown in his return to the field in Week 7, things have trended in the wrong direction for Nick Chubb ever since. Jerome Ford returned for the Browns this week, and he immediately outsnapped Chubb, 45% to 36%. Chubb still dominated carries, taking 15 of the team’s 19 RB rushes, but he was essentially a non-factor in the passing game with just one target on a 14% route participation rate. 

This isn’t necessarily out of the ordinary for Chubb, who has managed to put up huge fantasy numbers without much receiving work in the past thanks to elite efficiency. Unfortunately, that efficiency has not shown up so far in 2024. SumerSports has Chubb ranked 70 out of 72 qualified ball-carriers in Yards Created, while PFF has him graded as the 10th-worst out of 64 qualified RBs. 

Where Chubb once consistently ranked near the top of just about every efficiency metric (yards after contact, success rate, broken tackles, etc.), he is now on the other end. As an inefficient back with negligible rushing usage, Chubb will need to rack up TDs to be a solid fantasy asset … which looks a lot less likely with how Jameis Winston played in Week 9. He could improve as he works back to full health, but for now Chubb looks more like a boom-or-bust flex play than anything else.   

Sneaky Storylines

The Titans Play Two Receivers All Game Again

Last week, I noted that Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine both posted absolutely elite route participation rates of 93%. This week, we got confirmation that that was not just a one-time fluke, as Ridley (94%) and NWI (92%) once again hardly left the field for Tennessee. 

Even considering that the Titans have arguably the worst QB situation in the entire NFL, this kind of usage is huge for both Ridley and Westbrook-Ikhine’s values. Ridley has averaged a 32% target share and a 46% air yards share over the last two weeks (as well as 14.2 Half-PPR points), while NWI has scored touchdowns in four straight contests and just keeps increasing his season-high in receiving yards. 

The Commanders Have a WR2

While we’re obsessing over route share numbers, let’s take a look over at Washington. Despite having one of the league’s best offenses, the Commanders have really only had one fantasy-viable pass-catcher so far this season: Terry McLaurin. Zach Ertz is a borderline TE1, but no WR has emerged alongside Scary Terry as a go-to target for Jayden Daniels. This isn’t a coincidence, as no Commanders WR outside of Terry has averaged even a 50% route participation rate — you can’t score fantasy points if you’re not on the field.

However, that may be changing. Noah Brown has posted route participation rates of 72% and 76% over the last two weeks. This is particularly exciting because the former Texan and Cowboy has posted a very solid 23% target per route run rate so far this season. Those targets are down the field, too, as he has a 12.1 ADOT. If he can maintain those numbers (or something close to them) while running a fuller complement of routes, Brown could quickly emerge as a viable flex play. 

Drake Maye Is a Cheat Code QB

Lamar Jackson currently leads NFL quarterbacks with 56.1 rushing yards per game. If we look just at his three completed starts, Drake Maye is at 50.3 rushing yards per game. In his remaining start, which was cut short by a concussion after just three plays in the second quarter, he rushed for 46 yards. 

This kind of rushing production is almost guaranteed to turn into solid fantasy results. So far, Maye is averaging 18.7 points per full game, which would rank him as the QB9 for the season. Once again, things look even better if we consider his short Week 8 outing, in which he exited with 11.5 fantasy points already on the board. At this point, Maye is a must-add for anyone looking for QB help and should be considered a borderline QB1 in rest-of-season rankings.

Early DFS Plays

WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Last week, I hit big with a pay-up player in this section, as Saquon Barkley dominated an easy matchup with the Jaguars. Hopefully we can keep that going with Chase this week against a Ravens secondary that he torched for 193 yards and two touchdowns just a few weeks ago. 

This play will likely be popular, but some DFS players may be scared away by the idea that Chase performs worse without Tee Higgins. If that gives us even a slight decrease in the rostership of an elite player in a dream matchup, I’ll take it.

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

The vibes around the Colts’ offense are terrible right now. Joe Flacco led Indianapolis to just six offensive points after being named the starting quarterback over Anthony Richardson, and everyone is rushing to mock Indianapolis’ decision-makers. However, that was against a very tough Vikings defense — I’m willing to cut Flacco a little slack.

Overall, Downs has absolutely dominated with Flacco on the field this season. That actually didn’t change at all in Week 9, as he posted a 33% target share on a massive 41% first-read target share. Fantasy players are complaining about Downs’ season-low 50% snap share, but he still posted a 63% route participation rate, not too far off his season average. He doesn’t play in two-WR sets; we knew that already. 

Heading into a Week 10 matchup with a Bills defense that is tough against receivers in general but actually gives up an above-average number of points to slot WRs, I love the chance to get Downs with Flacco under center at reduced rostership. 

TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Henry is simply too cheap (except perhaps on Yahoo) for the production he has provided in recent weeks. Since Maye took over for the Patriots in Week 6, Henry ranks tied for seventh (with Trey McBride) among all tight ends with 26 targets.  He has recorded at least 41 yards in each of those four games, with an average fantasy finish of TE12. 

What I particularly like about this play is that Henry’s numbers so far this season are depressed by the fact that he has just one TD all season. This is a departure from the norm for Henry, who finished 2023 with six touchdowns on just three more receptions than he has right now. Given that he easily leads the Patriots with a 21% target share inside the red zone (and a 29% target share inside the 10), Henry should see some positive TD regression eventually. If that happens this week, he could be a massive smash at roughly two-thirds the price of the top TEs on the slate.