Week 10 Fantasy Football Recap: What is Wrong With the Jets?

We are officially 10 weeks into the fantasy football season! Things are still constantly changing even as we get deeper into the year, so let’s break down some of the biggest (and sneakiest) storylines from Week 10’s action. 

Top Performances

Ja’Marr Chase: 49.9 Half-PPR Points

Wow. Chase ended some fantasy matchups before they even began with 11 catches for 264 yards and three touchdowns on Sunday night. This was his second time this season absolutely destroying a weak Ravens secondary, but he has been getting it done regardless of opponent so far this season. Chase undoubtedly deserves to be a top-tier player, if not the No. 1 overall player, in rest of season rankings. 

Lamar Jackson: 32.9 Half-PPR Points

While Chase tore the Ravens’ secondary to shreds, Lamar had a massive Thursday night of his own, throwing for nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns and adding 84 more yards on the ground. Again, there’s not too much to say here. The reigning MVP has finished as a top-six fantasy quarterback in seven of 10 weeks and has never fallen outside the top 12 weekly scorers. He is undoubtedly the fantasy QB1, and only Jalen Hurts’ hot streak keeps it even close. 

Bijan Robinson: 27.9 Half-PPR Points

Some points were scored on Sunday, too, and no non-QB scored more than Bijan Robinson. Robinson carried the ball 20 times for 116 yards and two touchdowns, adding in three catches for 28 receiving yards for good measure. Unlike the previous two players, Robinson has had some ups and downs this season, but this performance still brought him up to RB4 overall on the year (RB5 in points per game). 

One particular sequence that can either be viewed as good or bad for Bijan’s fantasy outlook came in the second quarter. The Falcons had first and goal on the one-yard line and gave Tyler Allgeier three straight chances to score before Robinson finally punched it in on fourth and goal. Allgeier has been a thorn in Robinson’s fantasy production all season, especially near the goal line, but perhaps this week will make the Falcons reconsider their usage. Regardless, Bijan is locked in as an RB1 the rest of the way.  

Biggest Duds

Aaron Rodgers: 4.04 Half-PPR Points

The Jets imploded on Sunday, managing just six points against a bad Cardinals defense and falling to 3-7 for the season. Rodgers’ performance was the worst of the bunch, but all of the Jets’ big three skill position players (Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Davante Adams) also failed to reach their projected totals.

On the bright side, those three players have combined for an absurd 66% of the Jets’ overall targets since Adams arrived in Green Bay in Week 7. That kind of usage should mean they will all have better days ahead. For Rodgers, on the other hand, there doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel. The former MVP has just two QB1 finishes in 10 weeks and is averaging just 14.1 points per game. If this wasn’t clear already, he can safely be dropped in 1-QB leagues. 

CeeDee Lamb: 5.4 Half-PPR Points

Obviously, there was reason to be concerned for Lamb coming into this week with Dak Prescott on IR. But Lamb’s historical numbers with backup Cooper Rush were solid, if not truly elite. However, the Cooper Rush that led the Cowboys to a 4-1 record in 2022 was nowhere to be found on Sunday. With Rush under center (he was eventually benched for Trey Lance), the Cowboys’ offense averaged an absurdly terrible -0.65 EPA per play. Lamb led the team with nine targets (a 31% share) but caught just six for a measly 21 yards.

Going forward, with Prescott officially out for the season, Lamb undeniably needs to be downgraded in fantasy rankings. We can’t expect Dallas’ offense to be quite this bad every week, but they will likely remain among the league’s worst. A 30%+ target share will keep Lamb startable, but he’s not going to be a weekly WR1. 

Javonte Williams: 1.1 Half-PPR Points

Williams officially lost the Broncos’ lead RB job on Sunday. He came into Week 10 having handled slightly over half of the team’s RB carries for the season. Against the Chiefs, he had a grand total of one carry, while rookie Audric Estime led the team with 14 and Jaleel McLaughlin saw two. After the game, Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton indicated that Estime is here to stay as the team’s primary rusher. 

If we’re looking for a tiny glimmer of hope, Javonte did still play 31% of the Broncos’ offensive snaps in this game. He served as the team’s primary passing-down back, leading the backfield with a 24% route participation rate and two targets. But a passing-down-only role is not going to be enough for Williams to be a relevant fantasy asset. In deep leagues, you can hold onto Williams for a few weeks in case Payton changes his mind. Otherwise, he’s droppable — he doesn’t even bring elite handcuff upside, as we’ve seen him provide mediocre numbers as the top RB in this offense. 

Sneaky Storylines

Jauan Jennings is Here to Stay

The 49ers returned from their bye week with a healthier set of offensive weapons than they have had all season. Not only did Christian McCaffrey make his long-awaited return, but Jennings played for the first time since Week 6. And Jennings didn’t just play; he thrived. He led San Francisco in route participation rate at 88% and racked up 11 looks for a team-high 31% target share. 

This continued a strong run of play for the season, as Jennings has been excellent whenever he has been on the field. Among WRs with at least 100 routes run, he ranks fifth in yards per route behind only A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, and Jayden Reed. PFF has him graded as the seventh-best qualified receiver in the league.

Even with Brandon Aiyuk out, this 49ers offense is crowded. But Jennings has been playing well enough and has a big enough role to be considered a weekly fantasy starter for the rest of the season. 

Bad News for Breece: Braelon is Back

The Jets fired HC Robert Saleh and demoted OC Nathaniel Hackett after Week 5. Over the next two weeks, Breece Hall saw an absolutely ideal workload. He played 84% of snaps, handled  83% of the Jets’ RB rushes, and racked up an absurd 20% target share on a 68% route participation rate. Unfortunately, the Jets’ new decision-makers haven’t stuck to that usage.

Since Week 8, Hall’s usage has looked much more like it did to start the season, with rookie Braelon Allen being consistently involved. Hall has fallen back to a 77% snap share, a 63% rush share, and an 11% target share. That’s still great usage, but it’s a far cry from the truly dominant workload that it briefly looked like he would get under the new regime. Things just keep trending in the wrong direction, too, as he saw just three more carries than Allen (10 to seven) this week. Hall is still an RB1, but he’s not an elite option … and I might even be generous in calling him an RB1, as he ranks just 28th in points per game if we exclude those two weeks of god-tier usage.

There’s Hope For Sam LaPorta

I came into this season out on Sam LaPorta, and nothing he has done so far has changed my mind. In fact, he has actually been far worse than even my low expectations, ranking outside the top 12 tight ends in points per game. The big issue for LaPorta has been targets, as he has managed just an 11.6% target share on the season. That number is even lower if we exclude the two games Jameson Williams missed due to suspension, all the way down to a useless 9.6%. Coming into this week, LaPorta saw a target on just 11% of his routes with Williams active.

However, that changed this week. The sophomore tight end exited the Lions’ Week 10 matchup early with a shoulder injury, but he managed an elite 28% target per route run rate prior to leaving. He also posted a 20% first-read target share, way up from his 8% average in previous weeks with Jameson active. That means the Lions’ coaching staff was actively scheming him the ball.

This may have been just a small sample size fluke, but those numbers are very encouraging. If you’ve held onto LaPorta this long, he’s worth holding another week or two to see if he actually has expanded his role in this elite offense.  

Early DFS Plays

WR Calvin Ridley, Tenessee Titans 

I regret not making Ridley one of my Early Plays in last week’s article. Thankfully, I still played him in plenty of lineups, as he was one of very few players to have a big game on the main slate on Sunday, catching five of nine targets for 84 yards and two touchdowns. Ridley’s salary is unsurprisingly up coming off that big outing, but I still think he is underpriced. 

As I keep emphasizing in these weekly recaps, Ridley’s usage has been absolutely elite over the last few weeks. His route participation actually dropped a bit in Week 10, but he has still been averaging an 89% participation rate since Week 8, along with a 34% target share and an absurd 53% air yards share. In a matchup with the Vikings, who give up the fifth-most schedule-adjusted points to opposing WRs, I’m going to play him again.   

WR Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers

I already made the case for Jennings above, so I don’t have much more to say here. He’s a little more expensive on FanDuel, but Jennings is a no-brainer play on both DraftKings and Yahoo at prices outside the top 30 wide receivers. 

TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

With Isaiah Likely sidelined last week, Mark Andrews ran a route on 86% of the Ravens’ dropbacks on Thursday, his first time above even 70% for the season. Likely has yet to return to practice, so chances are he will be out again in Week 11.

Assuming Likely is out, Andrews should see a full-time role once again. With true TE1 usage, Andrews should be priced like the elite TE he once was, but he is instead outside the top six TEs in salary on all three sites. That makes him a great play, even against a tough Steelers defense.