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NFL best Bets Week 11

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Source of my betting simulations -> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

22-7-1 Against the Spread

Week 11 Starting Bankroll $366.32
BUF -2.0 -112 @ $10
ATL +2.5 -108 @ $10
GB -6.5 -108 @ $10
^parlay +602 @ $10

Previous Week 10 (Bankroll $408.46)
Bal -6.0 -112 @ $20 loss
NE +6.0 -112 @ $20 win +17.86
DET -3.5 -108 @ $20 loss
^parlay +590 @ $20 loss

Previous Week 9 (Bankroll $322.34)
TB +8.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
NE +3.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
WSH -3.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^parlay +590 @ $10 win +59.00

Previous Week 8 (Bankroll $305.62)
IND +5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
BUF -3 -110 @ $10 win 
 +9.09
WSH +3 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

Jake Ferguson (illness) did not practice on Thursday.
With the Cowboys not playing until Monday night, there are still two chances for Ferguson to get on the practice field. An absence due to illness seldom leads to a player missing a game, so we'll assume Ferguson will be active for Monday's game against the Texans.
(Nov 14 -- NBC Sports)

CeeDee Lamb was not listed on Thursday's injury report.
This is great news for Lamb, who battled through a sprained AC joint in the Cowboys' Week 10 loss to the Eagles. The star receiver should be good to go in Monday night's game against the Texans, but expectations should be tempered after last week's messy offensive performance. Lamb still has plenty of upside as a high-volume receiver, but Cooper Rush's unwillingness to push the ball downfield could result in a lot of short-yardage plays for Lamb. He's best treated as a solid WR2 in Monday's game.
(Nov 14 -- NBC Sports)

Cooper Rush (neck) was listed as a full participant in Thursday's practice.
The Cowboys adding Rush to Thursday's injury report is likely them doing their due diligence according to league rules. There have been no reports of Rush dealing with a serious neck injury, and the fact he was listed as a full participant should tell us all we need to know. Unless he suffers an unexpected setback, Rush should be good to go for Week 11 against the Texans, but fantasy managers should look to avoid him even during a tough bye week.
(Nov 14 -- NBC Sports)

Tee Higgins: Another limited practice
Higgins (quadricep) remained limited at practice Thursday, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports.
(Nov 14 -- Rotowire)

Buccaneers Claim S Mike Edwards
The Buccaneers are big on safety reunions this year. Months after bringing back Jordan Whitehead following his two seasons with the Jets, they are greenlighting a Mike Edwards comeback. Cut by two teams recently, Edwards is coming back to Tampa via waiver claim, KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson tweets. A former third-round Bucs draftee, Edwards played four […]
(Nov 14 -- Pro Football Rumors)

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