Week 12 Fantasy Football Recap: Time to Worry About Christian McCaffrey?
Happy Thanksgiving week! This is one of the best weeks of football of the year, as well as one of the most important for fantasy football. The fantasy playoffs are just around the corner (and we don’t have many DFS slates), so it’s more important than ever to give yourself the best chance to win every single week. With that in mind, let’s take a look back at Week 12’s action!
Top Performances
Saquon Barkley: 44.2 Half-PPR Points
Wow. There’s not much more to say than that, as you don’t need me to tell you that Saquon Barkley has been the smash pick of all smash picks this fantasy football season. Sunday night’s huge game was his sixth finish in the top three weekly running backs, as well as his third as the RB1 overall. He finished with over 300 (!!) combined yards to go with two rushing touchdowns.
The craziest thing about Saquon’s season is that it could be even better. He has been tackled at the one-yard line 10 times, the most in the league, and the vast majority of those plays have been immediately followed up by a Tush Push touchdown. Still, even without goal-line work, Barkley is the clear RB1. The only actionable advice I can give in response to this performance is to stash Kenneth Gainwell, just in case — he obviously can’t do what Barkley is doing, but the Eagles’ O-line is absolutely cooking right now.
Jayden Daniels: 30.4 Half-PPR Points
At first glance, this was a return to form from Daniels, just his second game over 20 fantasy points since Week 7. And it’s hard to argue with the stats, as he threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns and added 74 more yards and a third score on the ground.
However, I wouldn’t be too quick to immediately re-insert Daniels into the tier of truly elite fantasy quarterbacks. Even against a floundering Dallas team, it wasn’t exactly smooth sailing for the rookie on Sunday. At halftime, he had just 57 passing yards, 25 rushing yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception — that’s 2.78 fantasy points. Of course, being able to put up an elite fantasy day in just a half’s worth of plays is part of what makes Daniels special as a fantasy option. But anyone who watched the end of this game knows it wasn’t exactly a “normal” second half.
Don’t get me wrong, Daniels is still a QB1 in my rankings. I just want to see him play well for more than one half (perhaps the weirdest half of the season) before declaring that he is indeed back to his early-season dominance.
Jordan Addison: 26.2 Half-PPR Points
In a theoretically tough matchup with the Bears’ defense, Addison caught eight of nine targets for 162 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the WR1 on the week. This continued a boom-or-bust season for the sophomore, who now has two top-five finishes but also four finishes outside the top 50 weekly receivers.
As for whether this week is the beginning of Addison asserting himself as a weekly fantasy play … I don’t think so. On the bright side, his 92.1% route participation rate was his highest of the season and over a 10% jump from his average. His 25.7% target share was also his highest of the season (barely, he has two games of 25.0%). But it’s not surprising that Addison posted good usage numbers in his best game of the season. Looking forward, it’s not like we can project him to overtake Justin Jefferson as the Vikings’ WR1. Especially with T.J. Hockenson now back healthy, it’s hard to see Addison carving out enough of a role to be more than the boom-or-bust flex play he has been so far this season.
Biggest Duds
Christian McCaffrey: 6.3 Half-PPR Points
Is it officially time to be worried about Christian McCaffrey? On the one hand, it’s tempting to give him a pass for this performance, as the 49ers’ were without their two most important offensive players in Brock Purdy and Trent Williams. On the other hand, the consensus first-overall pick has now played in three games, and he has exactly zero top-10 fantasy finishes.
McCaffrey’s usage has still been pristine, as he has an 88% snap share, an 86% RB rush share, and a massive 17% target share in his three games played. But he has yet to provide much in terms of efficiency, averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt (he averaged 5.4 in 2023). He also has yet to record a single breakaway run (15+ yards) on his 43 attempts. The only other backs with at least 40 carries and no breakaway runs are Zach Charbonnet, Gus Edwards, Ezekiel Elliott, Roschon Johnson, and Carson Steele … not an inspiring list. Unsurprisingly, this is a huge change for CMC, who tied for fourth in breakaway run rate in 2023 (on far more volume than anyone near him).
This isn’t hugely actionable — CMC’s usage makes him an absolute must-start, especially in any PPR format. But we might have to adjust our expectations going forward for the reigning fantasy MVP.
Justin Jefferson: 3.7 Half-PPR Points
Speaking of adjusting expectations for previously dominant fantasy players, Justin Jefferson has finished outside the top 24 fantasy WRs in three straight weeks. This week was his worst of the season, as he caught just two of five targets for 27 yards. It was also by far his worst week in terms of usage, as he saw just a 15% target share, which was his first week below 24% all season.
Once again, that final stat points to the uncomfortable truth about this blurb — it’s kind of pointless. Jefferson is the most talented receiver in the league and is seeing usage to match (a 28% target share for the season). He’s a must-start, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a big game from him in Week 13 as the Vikings prioritize going to him early and often.
Jonathan Taylor: 3.5 Half-PPR Points
Like his fellow members of the Dud section, JT is a former first-overall fantasy pick. However, I am actually a little bit more worried about him going forward than I am about Jefferson and CMC. If we look just at games Taylor has played with Anthony Richardson as his quarterback, he is averaging just 13.5 Half-PPR points per game — that would rank him as the RB18 for the season, to give you an idea of the high standards we are talking about here.
With or without Richardson, JT is seeing absolutely elite usage on the ground: He has handled 69 of the Colts’ 71 RB rush attempts over the last four weeks. No other RB (barring Chase Brown with Zack Moss out) is seeing that high a percentage of their team’s RB touches. However, he is running into the classic issues presented by playing with a rushing QB. In games with Richardson, Taylor has just a 5.5% target share for 1.5 targets per game (in three games with Joe Flacco, he averaged four targets per game). Richardson is also cutting into JT’s TD equity, as he has taken five carries to Taylor’s 10 at the goal line (and they are tied at two apiece since Richardson reclaimed the starting job).
However, with all that said, I still don’t think JT is anything other than a must-start option. Even without much receiving usage, his dominant RB rush share is invaluable in a league full of backfields by committee. Especially with some decent matchups coming up, Taylor could still come through for fantasy managers down the stretch.
Sneaky Storylines
The Bears’ New Offense is a Huge Improvement
New Bears OC Thomas Brown continued making Caleb Williams’ job easy in his second game in charge of the Bears’ offense. After averaging a 61% first-read target rate under Shane Waldron, Williams has now posted back-to-back games above 78% — Trevor Lawrence is the qualified leader in this stat at 76%. This change has been huge for Caleb’s efficiency, as he is averaging 6.8 adjusted net yards per attempt under Brown compared to 4.5 under Waldron. His success rate has also jumped from 41.2% (third-worst) to 49.5% (would be 13th-best).
This is a significant boost to Caleb’s fantasy value, but it may be even more important for his receivers. This many first-read targets means whoever is having plays designed for them is going to eat, and so far, that’s Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. Under Brown, Allen is averaging a 34% first-read target share for 11.5 targets per game. That usage puts the veteran firmly back in the weekly start conversation.
Moore’s first-read target share is lower than Allen’s (and even lower than rookie Rome Odunze’s), but his usage has changed in a different key way. He has racked up nine screen targets over the past two weeks after totaling just 10 screen targets over the first nine games of the season. Those nine screen targets have turned into nine receptions, 117 yards, and a touchdown (aka 22.2 Half-PPR points), as DJM is proving his ability with the ball in space. That level of guaranteed usage each game is a massive boost to both his floor and ceiling, with any downfield looks being the cherry on top.
The Bucs Have a Three-Headed Monster, & One Head is a Vulture
After Sean Tucker had a huge game with Rachaad White sidelined in Week 6, Tampa’s head coach Todd Bowles indicated that he planned to use all three of their backs (Tucker, White, and rookie Bucky Irving) in a three-headed monster. That didn’t last long, as Tucker totaled just 10 carries over the next three weeks before failing to play an offense snap in Week 10.
However, Tucker rose from the dead in Week 12 coming off the Buccaneers’ Week 11 bye. Specifically, he returned to play a very specific role. On Tampa’s first offensive drive, he totaled three snaps and three carries. Those three snaps came on third down and one, fourth down and one, and first and goal from the one-yard line (he punched it in for the TD). His next snap and carry came in another short-yardage situation (again from the one-yard line), but this time he failed to score and actually fumbled the ball. This led to him being essentially benched for the rest of the game. He played just one more snap (recording a target on a first and ten) and watched from the sideline as Rachaad White scored the Bucs’ final goal-line TD.
Going forward, unless he remains in the dog house for his fumble, I expect the Buccaneers to continue using Tucker in a short-yardage and goal-line role. That probably won’t be enough for him to carve out fantasy relevance, but it is terrible news for the values of both Iriving and White. They are already cannibalizing each other’s value; Tucker coming in a handful of times a game to steal some of the most valuable possible touches won’t help. Luckily, Tampa does have a very favorable schedule coming up. Irving, in particular, has been hugely efficient with his touches and should be able to maintain value. But this is definitely a situation to monitor, as any backfield with this many moving parts is inherently unstable.
Dontayvion Wicks Season Part 2
Romeo Doubs suffered a concussion in the Packers’ drubbing of the 49ers, meaning he will almost certainly miss their Thanksgiving matchup with the Dolphins. This is a slight boost to the fantasy value of Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, but the big winner is the one and only Dontayvion Wicks.
Wicks had been phased out of the Packers’ offense in recent weeks, but he should step right into an every-down role as long as Doubs is sidelined. And, despite his duds early in the season, I still have hope for Wicks as maybe the best receiver on this Green Bay offense. For the season, he leads the group with an absolutely elite 30% target per route run rate. In the two games where he posted a route participation rate above 50%, he posted target shares of 24% and 23% (both team-highs). If you’re looking for a DFS punt or a streaming WR option, I recommend giving the sophomore another shot.
Early DFS Plays
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Here is a list of running back opportunities in the Bengals’ three games since Zack Moss went down with a season-ending neck injury: Chase Brown, 84. Everyone else, 0. The Bengals tried to give the ball to Khalil Herbert once, and he promptly fumbled the exchange with Joe Burrow (so it didn’t even count as a carry).
No other running back in the league is seeing usage this good. Brown could see his opportunities cut by 20% and still have elite usage on one of the league’s best offenses. That he is the RB15 on DraftKings and RB16 on FanDuel for Sunday’s main slate is absurd — Yahoo has him up at RB7, and even that isn’t high enough. He’s a no-brainer play everywhere.
QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
There are a lot of very exciting QB options on this week’s main slate. Of course, there are the big names at the top (Jackson, Hurts, and Daniels), and then there are some dual-threat options with much higher upsides than their salaries would imply (Murray and Richardson). But my favorite value QB play of the week is Herbert.
Herbert didn’t perform as well as I might have hoped against the soft Baltimore secondary on Monday night, but he still posted his fifth straight game of at least 17 fantasy points. On Sunday, he gets another good matchup against the Falcons, who have been giving up fantasy points in bunches in recent weeks. Especially if J.K. Dobbins is out (meaning we may see extra passing volume for Herbert), this is a smash spot.
Thanksgiving Special: WR DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
I’m sure many of you will be playing the Thanksgiving Day slate, arguably the most fun DFS slate of the year. And my favorite pick for the holiday is Moore. As I discussed above, increased usage in the screen game has massively elevated his production in his first two weeks in Thomas Browns’ offense. However, I don’t think we’ve seen his ceiling yet.
Outside of his nine screen targets, DJM has just five targets over the last two weeks. But he is still the Bears’ best receiver at all levels of the field, or at the very least better than barely-not-washed Keenan Allen. If a few of the targets that have been being schemed up for Allen head DJM’s way instead, he could be in for a huge game. There should also be plenty of targets to go around as Caleb is pushed to keep up with the dominant Lions offense. If Moore gets multiple deep looks to go with the free points he is racking up on screens, watch out.