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NFL Best Bets Week 13

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Source of my betting simulations -> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

25-10-1 Against the Spread

Week 13 Starting Bankroll $342.52
LV +13 -112 @ $20 
IND -2.5 -120 @ $20 
SF +7 -115 @ $20 
^parlay +548 @ $10

Week 12 (Bankroll $345.25)
TEN +8.5 -110 @ $10 win $9.09
PIT -3.5 -110 @ $20 loss
TB -6 -110 @ $20 win $18.18
^parlay +595 @ $10 loss

previous Week 11 (Bankroll $366.32)
BUF -2.0 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
ATL +2.5 -108 @ $10 loss
GB -6.5 -108 @ $10 loss
^parlay +602 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 10 (Bankroll $408.46)
Bal -6.0 -112 @ $20 loss
NE +6.0 -112 @ $20 win +17.86
DET -3.5 -108 @ $20 loss
^parlay +590 @ $20 loss

Previous Week 9 (Bankroll $322.34)
TB +8.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
NE +3.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
WSH -3.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^parlay +590 @ $10 win +59.00

Previous Week 8 (Bankroll $305.62)
IND +5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
BUF -3 -110 @ $10 win 
 +9.09
WSH +3 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

Seahawks WR DK Metcalf (shoulder) did not participate in Wednesday's practice.
Metcalf popped up on the Seahawks' practice report with a new shoulder injury, listed as a non-participant for Wednesday. We have not yet heard about Metcalf's shoulder issue, so the severity of the injury is still up in the air. If Metcalf can practice over the next couple days, he has a better chance of suiting up for Week 13. Otherwise, Metcalf is at risk of missing the Seahawks' game against the Jets. With Tyler Lockett (knee) also missing practice, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is slated for a big game this week.
(Nov 27 -- NBC Sports)

DK Metcalf: DNP with shoulder injury
Metcalf didn't practice Wednesday due to a shoulder injury, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
(Nov 27 -- Rotowire)

Bryce Young and Dave Canales are learning a lesson that transformed the Packers last year. Are the Panthers next?
"Early on, you re trying to protect him." Once the Packers stopped doing that to Jordan Love, he took off. Will Young do the same?
(Nov 27 -- Yahoo Sports)

Will Dissly, Denzel Perryman out of practice for Chargers
The Chargers opened up their practice week without tight end Will Dissly on the field.
(Nov 27 -- Yahoo Sports)

Sean Payton: Jameis Winston is the "ultimate pro"
Monday night's Browns-Broncos game has an interesting subplot that traces to New Orleans.
(Nov 27 -- ProFootballTalk.com)

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