NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 13

Welcome to Week 13’s DFS preview! Even with the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games, no byes this week means we have another 10-game slate on our hands. I hope you all enjoyed the holiday and are now ready to attack this slate and hopefully win some money for the holidays to come! Let’s get right into it! 

Game Overviews

Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons

Projected Totals: Chargers 23.5, Falcons 23.5

These two teams are heading in the opposite direction in terms of offensive philosophy. Over Weeks 1-6, the Chargers were the second most run-heavy team in terms of pass rate vs. expected, while the Falcons were slightly above average. Since then, LA ranks in the top five pass-happiest teams, while Atlanta has been one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. Still, this game has one of the highest and most balanced totals on the slate, so it’s certainly an interesting spot to attack.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert’s salary is particularly low on DraftKings, but he’s not a terrible play anywhere. His fantasy performance last week against a very soft Ravens secondary was disappointing, but he has still been playing like one of the best QBs in the league (and getting the volume to go with it) of late. Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, is priced up on DK and cheapest on FD. If you’re going to play him, I would do it in a stack with one or more of his pass-catchers, as he offers essentially zero value with his legs.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson saw absolutely elite usage the last time we saw the Falcons, as Tyler Allgeier’s role was reduced massively. That may have been partially related to game script, but I do think we can expect Bijan to see better usage down the stretch than he has seen for most of the season. With that in mind, he’s a very solid play, even against a tough Chargers defense. With J.K. Dobbins almost certainly out this week, Gus Edwards should serve as the Chargers’ primary back. He’s a decent value play on all three sites, especially Yahoo where he is just $1 above the minimum. However, Hassan Haskins (at the goal line) and Kimani Vidal (in the passing game) may cut into some of his most valuable potential usage, so Edwards isn’t as much of a smash as starting RBs at backup prices sometimes are.

Wide Receivers

Drake London and Darnell Mooney see the most consistent usage of any wide receiver duo this side of Cincinnati. They honestly both seem underpriced given their production this season, with London as a pay-up (but not elite) option and Mooney a mid-range play. Ray-Ray McCloud is also on the field a ton, but I would mostly consider him in a stack with Cousins. On the Chargers’ side, Ladd McConkey is definitely the top option to consider, and he is well worth playing. But I also don’t hate going back to either Quentin Johnston or Joshua Palmer after their embarrassing performances on national TV last week — they are still seeing solid usage, and this is a good matchup. Low floors do mean they are mostly tournament options, however. 

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts is simply too expensive on DraftKings, but he’s a decent mid-range TE on the other two sites. He brings a higher ceiling than most TEs in his price range but also plenty of bust potential. I’m more interested in Will Dissly this week (coming off a 68% route participation rate in Week 12) than I was when he was a hot play over the past few weeks, but it’s still hard to get too excited about him. 

Defenses

I’m not particularly interested in playing either the Falcons’ defense or the Chargers’ defense this week. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Totals: Steelers 22.5, Bengals 25.5

An AFC North showdown with one of the highest totals of the week — what could go wrong? There’s some great combinations of usage and talent on both sides of this game (although mostly the Cincinnati one, if we’re being honest). 

Quarterbacks

This is a good matchup for Russell Wilson, but I am not hugely into him this week. There are other quarterbacks at similar (or better) price points whom I simply like more. I’m also not too interested in Joe Burrow. We know he has massive upside every week that his top two receivers are healthy, but this is a bad matchup, and his comments about playing in the cold don’t exactly inspire confidence.

Running Backs

Chase Brown is one of my favorite plays of the week. He is seeing arguably the best workload of anyone on this entire slate, yet his price is outside the top 10 RBs on all three sites. I might just put him in every single lineup. Things are trickier on the Steelers’ side. Najee Harris has been very good this year, but Jaylen Warren has been cutting more into his usage in recent weeks. Given that the Bengals’ defense has been a bottom-four matchup for RBs so far this season, I lean toward fading them both.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase is absolutely in play, even as the most expensive WR on the slate. However, I might prefer Tee Higgins, who is significantly cheaper despite having performed comparably when both are healthy this season. On the Steelers’ side, all roads lead to George Pickens. Calvin Austin III had a solid outing last week, but it’s still hard to play him and his 11% target share. As for Pickens, he has been absolutely feasting since Russ took over under center for Pittsburgh. He is definitely in play in a game where the Steelers should have to pass more than they usually do. 

Tight Ends

I’m not interested in Pat Freiermuth, who has hardly been involved in the Steelers’ offense of late. I’m more tempted by Mike Gesicki, who has fallen out of favor despite posting his highest route participation rate of the season the last time we saw this Bengals offense. With that said, he is still a risky option and not priced as low as I might have hoped. 

Defenses

Although I’m a little worried about Burrow and his wrist, I’m still not playing the Steelers’ defense. The Bengals’ defense is a bit intriguing as a pay-down option on both DK and FD, as Pittsburgh’s offense has been known to struggle at times. But that is definitely a risky play, so proceed with caution.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Totals: Texans 23.5, Jaguars 20.5

The Jaguars get Trevor Lawrence back this week, but their season is still already over. Meanwhile, this may be a get-right spot for the Texans coming off a loss to a different divisional opponent in the Titans. 

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud has simply not lived up to fantasy expectations this season. With that said, his best game of the year came against this same terrible Jaguars defense back in Week 4. He is worth considering, especially on Yahoo where his price is much lower. Trevor Lawrence is an intriguing pay-down option as his price is lower than his production, but it is a bit tough to see him providing much of a ceiling this week. 

Running Backs

Joe Mixon’s usage is awesome, and so is this matchup. He’s expensive, but could easily be worth it. On the Jaguars’ side, it’s tough to play either Tank Bigsby or Travis Etienne. This is not an ideal matchup, and they both cut into each other’s ceilings and floors. If I had to play one, it would be Bigsby, who brings more big-play upside. 

Wide Receivers

It is absolutely worth paying up for Nico Collins against a Jaguars secondary that has hemorrhaged points to opposing receivers this season. Tank Dell is also a solid option. For the Jaguars, Brian Thomas is much more viable with T-Law back under center. With Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk both done for the year, he should see tons of targets. Parker Washington is also worth considering as a punt option, as he should be Jacksonville’s WR2 this week.

Tight Ends

With all of Jacksonville’s WR injuries, Evan Engram should see tons of targets the rest of the way. It’s a shame that he is priced up on DK, where he should take advantage of the Full PPR settings, but he is an option on all three sites. I’m not interested in Dalton Schultz.

Defenses

I’m not playing either the Jaguars’ defense (too bad) or the Texans’ defense (too expensive) this week. 

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings

Projected Totals: Cardinals 20.5, Vikings 24.5

This game is interesting, as it doesn’t have one of the highest totals on the slate, but I can absolutely see scenarios where it goes nuclear. The question will be whether the Cardinals’ offense can move the ball on a tough Minnesota defense.

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold has been a top-seven QB in three of the last four weeks, and this isn’t a terrible matchup (although Arizona surprisingly ranks as a below-average schedule-adjusted opponent for QBs). However, I still haven’t forgiven him for imploding against the Jaguars. He can be played (especially on FD), but he’s risky. Kyler Murray is also a risky play, but we at least know that he has a truly elite ceiling in his range of outcomes. 

Running Backs

After a few weeks of trending in the wrong direction, Aaron Jones jumped back to an elite workload last week. In a good matchup at a not-too-bad price, he’s a very solid play. I’m a little more conflicted about James Conner, who has a similar price despite a worse matchup and the fact that his downward trend is still ongoing. However, Conner does still see great volume each week and we know he can score multiple TDs, keeping him in play. 

Wide Receivers

I’ve spent all season saying, “Justin Jefferson is a great play if you can afford him,” but he really hasn’t been providing the ceiling or the floor to justify his price tags. With that said, his salaries have come down slightly, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota makes an effort to get him involved early, coming off his worst game of the season. With that in mind, I’m not chasing the points with Jordan Addison, who does have a high ceiling (as shown last week) but is often an afterthought in the Vikings’ offense. I love Marvin Harrison Jr. this week. Yes, his floor is low for an expensive wide receiver, but his ceiling is elite, and this is an excellent matchup. Combine that with how much his price has fallen since the start of the season, and I will be playing him heavily. The matchup is also good enough to make Michael Wilson a bit intriguing as a punt option.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride is a beast and worth considering every single week. T.J. Hockenson is coming off a big week, and he could have another this week with Josh Oliver likely still out. He’s worth considering as a not-quite-elite TE option. 

Defenses

The Cardinals’ defense projects to be very popular as a pay-down option, and I’m not quite sure why. I guess Darnold has shown that he will still have complete stinker games occasionally, but I lean toward fading this chalk punt defense. I’m also not hugely interested in the Vikings’ defense. 

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Projected Totals: Colts 22.5, Patriots 20.5

This is one of the uglier games on the slate on paper. However, both of these young QBs are high-variance, so there’s always a chance we get a shootout here. 

Quarterbacks

We know Anthony Richardson can score two rushing TDs and throw a deep bomb TD in any given week, so we always have to consider him, especially at QB14 on DraftKings. Just keep in mind that his floor is as low as his ceiling is high. A similar logic applies to Drake Maye, who stands out as a cheap option on FD. 

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor has seen less receiving work and fewer goal-line touches since Richardson returned, but his rushing volume is still arguably the best in the league. He’s worth considering at discounted prices in a good matchup. Rhamondre Stevenson was out-snapped by Antonio Gibson last week, so I’m staying away from the Patriots’ backfield. 

Wide Receivers

The Colts will be without Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin, and Alec Pierce also looks heavily questionable. That makes Adonai Mitchell very appealing as a cheap option, and even Michael Pittman is worth considering. On the Patriots’ side, Kayson Boutte is still the main player I am considering — he’s so cheap, and one day all those routes will turn into points (right?). DeMario Douglas is a bit expensive, given he is consistently below 70% in route participation rate. 

Tight Ends

Even with all their injuries at WR, I’m not playing any Colts tight ends. Hunter Henry, on the other hand, is definitely in play. He has led the Patriots in target share in each of the last two weeks and isn’t too expensive.

Defenses

I’m a bit tempted by the Patriots’ defense; the one issue is that, for all his flaws, Richardson is elite at avoiding sacks. Maye, on the other hand, has been racking up sacks — the Colts’ defense is in play, especially on DK where they are hugely chalk as a mid-range option. 

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets

Projected Totals: Seahawks 21.5, Jets 20.5

It’s crazy that a game with this many offensive stars has the lowest total on the entire slate. But the Seahawks are being held back by a subpar offensive line, while the Jets are just terrible. There are reasons to be excited here, but who knows if these teams can come through. 

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith is intriguing given the Seahawks’ pass-happy offense, but it’s hard to trust him against a still-decent Jets secondary. Seattle also hasn’t been quite as aggressive lately as they were to start the season. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers is just not a playable fantasy QB at this point.

Running Backs

Breece Hall is questionable. If he is out, Braelon Allen is the obvious smash value play of the slate. If he’s in, Hall is worth considering, although it’s a bit concerning that he might play fewer snaps than usual while dealing with a knee injury. Kenneth Walker has slowed down recently, and his usage hasn’t been as pristine, either. With that said, he still sees excellent usage and has elite big-play ability, which always keeps him in play.

Wide Receivers

I prefer Jaxon Smith-Njigba slightly to DK Metcalf this week (except on Yahoo), as the Jets are softer against slot receivers than those who line up out wide. But they are both worth considering with high upside at mid-range prices. The same applies to Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. They are both seeing absolutely elite usage, even if it hasn’t turned into many points lately. 

Tight Ends

I’m not interested in either Tyler Conklin or Noah Fant — they’re both cheap, but there really isn’t much upside in playing them.

Defenses

I’m not paying surprisingly high prices for the Seahawks’ defense against a Jets offense that still has tons of talent despite its struggles. The Jets’ defense is a bit more interesting, but they have joined their offense in struggling greatly of late.

Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders

Projected Totals: Titans 19.5, Commanders 25.5

Both of these teams played wild games last week, finishing on opposite sides of major upsets. The Commanders finished with impressive offensive numbers, but they did almost nothing for the entire first half against a bad Cowboys defense. Meanwhile, the Titans exceeded expectations by scoring 32 points against the Texans.

Quarterbacks

Will Levis had a solid final stat line last week, although a huge chunk of his production came on one huge YAC TD by Chigoziem Okonkwo. With that said, we know that big plays are part of his game, and he is cheap — he’s a value option. Jayden Daniels finished strong last week, but he still doesn’t look anywhere near as good as he did to start the season. He can be played with the Commanders’ huge total, but he’ll likely need another rushing TD to pay off his high prices. 

Running Backs

Tyjae Spears is back this week, meaning the end of bell-cow Tony Pollard. With that in mind, I’m not too interested in either of Tennessee’s backs. Austin Ekeler is out this week with a concussion, but it looks as though Brian Robinson will play through his ankle injury. The Titans’ defense is good against the run, but Robinson is still definitely in play given he should see excellent usage with Ekeler out.  

Wide Receivers

I still love Calvin Ridley, who has been seeing elite WR1 usage over the last month. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine also just keeps scoring touchdowns, but his prices are now higher than I would be willing to pay to chase that hot streak. For the Commanders, Terry McLaurin was one weird play away from a complete dud last week — I’m fading him against a Tennessee defense that has been the worst schedule-adjusted matchup for WRs. I would rather play Noah Brown, who has seen similar usage to McLaurin but is much cheaper. 

Tight Ends

He did hit on that huge play last week, but Chigoziem Okonkwo is not involved in the Titans’ offense consistently enough to be an appealing play. Zach Ertz, on the other hand, sees very reliable usage in the Commanders’ offense — he’s a mid-range option.

Defenses

Even in a big win last week, Will Levis took an absurd nine sacks. His propensity for sacks and turnovers makes the Commanders’ defense worth considering, even at high prices. I’m also interested in the Titans’ defense (especially at the minimum price on Yahoo). They’re a talented unit, and I’m still a little suspicious of the Commanders’ offense.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Projected Totals: Buccaneers 26.5, Panthers 20.5

This game features two of the worst defenses in the league, which is always interesting. We have to hope that Bryce Young’s recent improvements continue, and this could turn into a legit shootout. 

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield has been cooking all season, and the Panthers’ defense is a very beatable opponent. He is in play even at top-five prices. I’m sure I’ll regret this, but I’m also a bit into Bryce Young this week. He has looked much better since returning from his benching, and Tampa is the second-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for fantasy quarterbacks … and, of course, his price is dirt cheap.

Running Backs

Last week, Bucky Irving out-targeted Rachaad White for the first time all season. Without even receiving work to hang his hat on, White is suddenly a very shaky play. He’s cheap enough to be interesting on DK in an excellent matchup, but I’m fading him otherwise. Irving, meanwhile, is also especially cheap on DK, but he’s more worth playing across the board. Chuba Hubbard just keeps seeing an elite workload and producing with it. He’s in play against a Tampa defense that is good against the run but very weak against RBs catching passes out of the backfield. 

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans didn’t play a full set of snaps in his first week back, and he still posted a 20% target share. He’s a great play this week. Otherwise, I’m still fading the roulette wheel of Sterling Shepard vs. Jalen McMillan. This is a very intriguing matchup for the Panthers’ receivers, but it’s hard to know who to use to target it. David Moore had a huge game last week and is super cheap, but I don’t think we can play the veteran journeyman. Xavier Legette consistently leads the team in routes but hasn’t performed much. Adam Thielen is back in his slot role but didn’t play in two-WR sets last week. I prefer Legette to Thielen, but both are worth considering.   

Tight Ends

Cade Otton disappointed last week, but I like his chances to bounce back this week. The Panthers’ defense is very weak against TEs, and he and Evans don’t necessarily compete for the same kind of targets. He’s near the top of the TE price list but well below the top names in actual salary, making him worth playing. With Ja’Tavion Sanders out, I’m not playing any Panther tight end.

Defenses

Except on Yahoo, I’m not paying up for the Buccaneers’ defense. Even on Yahoo, they’re a bit expensive with how badly they’ve performed this season. I’m not playing the Panthers’ defense.

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Projected Totals: Rams 26.5, Saints 23.5

This game has the second-highest total on the slate. Both of these defenses aren’t great, the Rams’ offense is finally healthy, and Derek Carr has been making it work despite tons of injuries to his weapons. There should be fantasy goodness here. 

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford’s splits with vs. without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy are night and day. He’s worth considering, especially with how high this game’s total is. Derek Carr also gets a boost from this game environment, and we have to respect what he has been doing with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Taysom Hill as his top weapons. He’s a high-risk/high-reward value option, especially on DK.

Running Backs

Both of the backs in this game, Alvin Kamara and Kyren Williams, see absolutely elite usage and have above-average matchups this week. They are both pay-up options worth considering if you can find the cash. 

Wide Receivers

I prefer Puka Nacua to Cooper Kupp, but they both see WR1-level usage and can be played. For the Saints, Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s price has come up after his back-to-back big games, making it less appealing to bet on a third hit in a row. On the other hand, he is getting a handful of deep shots every game, so his chances of hitting at least once are better than you might think. No other New Orleans WR is involved enough to consider.

Tight Ends

He broke the slate the last time we saw him, and Taysom Hill is absolutely in play again, even though his price is much higher now. He has always had an unparalleled ceiling for the position, and he is finally seeing enough classic receiving usage to have a more stable floor as well. On a slate where McBride is the only other truly elite TE, he could easily be a must-have player again. Davis Allen fell below a 50% route participation rate last week, taking him off my list of TE options. 

Defenses

In a matchup where both teams have totals north of 23, I’m not playing either the Saints’ defense or the Ravens’ defense.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens

Projected Totals: Eagles 24.5, Ravens 26.5

We finish with the game with the highest total on the slate. The Eagles’ defense has been playing very well recently, but the Ravens’ offense is nigh-unstoppable. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s secondary is terrible, and Hurts, AJB, Saquon, and the Eagles’ O-line are on fire. This battle of the birds should be high-flying, although the salaries are high across the board to match.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson is never a bad play, and he is absolutely a pay-up option this week. But this week, I actually prefer Jalen Hurts of these two elite dual-threat options. The Eagles’ defense has been on fire, and the Ravens’ defense, while improved recently, is still a great matchup for quarterbacks. 

Running Backs

Just like their quarterbacks, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry are both among the three highest-priced options at their position on this slate. Saquon is more expensive across the board, but I do prefer him — Henry has shown himself to be a bit game-script-dependent, and there are plenty of scenarios in which the Ravens are playing from behind this week.

Wide Receivers

On the Eagles’ side, DeVonta Smith is questionable. If he’s in, I like playing him in this prime matchup where the Eagles may be forced to throw more than usual. If he’s out, Jahan Dotson becomes an intriguing pay-down option for the same reasons. Regardless of whether Smith is available, A.J. Brown is an excellent pay-up option. I also like Zay Flowers this week, as he tends to produce whenever the Ravens are forced to pass with any sort of volume. Rashod Bateman is the only other Baltimore WR to consider, and he is just cheap enough to be a little intriguing as a boom-or-bust way into this explosive environment. 

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert gets more intriguing if Smith is out — otherwise, I’ll probably look elsewhere for TE production. I’ve been out on Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely all season, but they’re both more interesting than usual this week — extra passing volume could make up for the fact that neither can be trusted to hit even a 60% route participation rate. Still, you’re basically hoping for a TD or two by playing either. 

Defenses

The Ravens’ defense and the Eagles’ defense are both not on the table this week. 

Lineups

DraftKings

Cash Game

Fair warning, this is going to be a pretty chalky lineup — but that’s totally okay for cash games. I’m going to start with my favorite play of the week in Brown, paired with my favorite play of the last few weeks in Ridley. Herbert stands out as being simply too cheap, and we can add in London going back the other way. From there, I like a pair of Bucs facing the terrible Panthers’ defense in Irving and Otton. Add the chalk Colts defense, and we’ve got $12,800 left for a WR and a FLEX — there are plenty of ways to go here.

Tournament

It’s worked for me once already this year, so let’s do an Anthony Richardson/Adonai Mitchell stack. I’ll add in Hunter Henry coming back the other way. From there, I have to get in Chase Brown again, and I can’t not play Collins against the abysmal Jacksonville secondary. The Titans’ defense against Washington is a place where I am happy to save money and get weird at the same time. I’ll also play MHJ and hope we get a ceiling game against a bad Vikings secondary. That just leaves one RB slot and a FLEX, and there are plenty of ways to fill those. 

FanDuel

Cash Game

We’re going straight back to Chase Brown, as well as Hunter Henry again, who is cheapest on FD. McConkey and Davante Adams also stand out as being cheaper here than they are on other sites. We can also take advantage of FD including the Sunday night game by getting in Jauan Jennings, who we made quite a bit of money off of two weeks ago. We’ve saved some salary so far, so let’s get in Bijan and Lamar at the top. That does leave us a little short on cash heading into the final FLEX and DST picks, but there are plenty of ways to make things work. 

Tournament

How many times do I have to build losing Drake Maye/Kayshon Boutte stacks before giving up? At least one more. I’ll even add in Hunter Henry, fully believing in a breakout game from Maye. Luckily, that stack is super cheap, leaving us lots of money to build a star-studded lineup elsewhere. I’ll even pay up for the Commanders’ defense, hoping for another Will Levis/Tennessee O-line disasterclass. From there, I’ll go with a pair of Browns, A.J. and Chase. I also don’t want to not have any Taysom Hill lineups, so let’s full commit to the weirdness by putting him in at flex. That leaves us with a solid chunk of cash and one spot each at WR and RB.

Yahoo

Cash Game

As always, cash games on Yahoo are pretty simple. Let’s get in a super-cheap Stroud, plus Adonai Mitchell at the minimum and Gus Edwards just one dollar above it. I’m willing to go down to the minimum again at defense with Tennessee, plus pay down for Ertz at tight end. Let’s use some of the cash to get in Joe Mixon; between him and Stroud we have essentially the whole Texans’ offense in a great spot. And then I know I was pessimistic on him earlier, but I’m not passing Justin Jefferson as the WR8. That still leaves a ton of cash to fill our final WR and FLEX spots.

Tournament

Let’s start with an expensive (and therefore potentially unpopular) Ravens stack: Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and even Isaiah “40% route participation” Likely. Add in Saquon the other way, and we are suddenly in dire need of some value somewhere. That’s where Gus, Adonai, and the Buccaneers’ defense come in. From there, BTJ is underpriced thanks to his recent misadventures with Mac Jones under center, and I also like Adams to bounce back. That’s actually an entire lineup, so please feel free to mix it up where you like — both Bateman and Andrews instead of Likely are viable (and potentially smarter) stacking partners with Lamar and Zay.