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NFL Best Bets

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Source of my betting simulations -> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

26-12-1 Against the Spread

Week 14 Starting Bankroll $290.38
LV +7 -112 @ $20 
CAR +12.5 -110 @ $20 
ATL +5 -112 @ $20
TEN -3.5 -112 @$20
^parlay +1194 @ $5

Week 13 (Bankroll $342.52)
LV +13 -112 @ $20 win $17.86
IND -2.5 -120 @ $20 loss
SF +7 -115 @ $20 loss
^parlay +548 @ $10 loss

Week 12 (Bankroll $345.25)
TEN +8.5 -110 @ $10 win $9.09
PIT -3.5 -110 @ $20 loss
TB -6 -110 @ $20 win $18.18
^parlay +595 @ $10 loss

previous Week 11 (Bankroll $366.32)
BUF -2.0 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
ATL +2.5 -108 @ $10 loss
GB -6.5 -108 @ $10 loss
^parlay +602 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 10 (Bankroll $408.46)
Bal -6.0 -112 @ $20 loss
NE +6.0 -112 @ $20 win +17.86
DET -3.5 -108 @ $20 loss
^parlay +590 @ $20 loss

Previous Week 9 (Bankroll $322.34)
TB +8.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
NE +3.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
WSH -3.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^parlay +590 @ $10 win +59.00

Previous Week 8 (Bankroll $305.62)
IND +5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
BUF -3 -110 @ $10 win 
 +9.09
WSH +3 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

DK Metcalf (shoulder) was limited in Wednesday's practice.
The shoulder issue kept Metcalf sidelined on Wednesday and Thursday before he practiced in full on Friday last week. His early-week participation today suggests he suffered no setbacks in-game. Metcalf did briefly exit Week 13 due to an apparent nerve-related issue in his knee, that impacted his foot, but the team did not list his knee nor his foot on today's report so we can consider it a thing of the past for now.
(Dec 4 -- NBC Sports)

DK Metcalf: Still bothered by shoulder issue
Metcalf was limited at Wednesday's practice due to a shoulder injury, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
(Dec 4 -- Rotowire)

Shanahan confident rookie Guerendo ready for feature 49ers role
San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan believes rookie running back Isaac Guerendo is ready for a feature role after recent injuries at the position.
(Dec 4 -- Yahoo Sports)

Four Verts: Lions-Packers headlines a division that's lived up to the hype, while Brock Bowers should be OROY
Also in this week's edition: Matt Eberflus might've gone out the worst way possible, and please don't doubt the Chiefs.
(Dec 4 -- Yahoo Sports)

Ladd McConkey: Logs limited practice Wednesday
McConkey (knee/shoulder) was limited at practice Wednesday.
(Dec 4 -- Rotowire)

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