Week 13 Fantasy Football Recap: Jerry Jeudy Gets His Revenge

I can’t believe we are already through Week 13. For most fantasy football leagues, we are now heading into the final week of the regular season, with playoff hopes on the line. It’s more crucial than ever to be locked in on trends and evolving situations around the league. With that in mind, let’s get straight into looking back at everything that happened in Week 13.   

Top Performances

Jerry Jeudy: 36.0 Half-PPR Points

Talk about a revenge game. Jeudy caught nine passes for 235 yards and a touchdown in his return to Denver. This was easily the best game of his career, but it wasn’t just a fluke, either.

Since Jameis Winston took over as the Browns’ starting QB, Jeudy ranks third among WRs (behind two Bengals) with 18.4 Half-PPR points per game. He is also tied for sixth with 9.6 targets per game and third with 127 air yards per game. We saw in Week 12 that even Jameis can’t throw the ball over 40 times in every game, but he’s clearly going to do his absolute best, and Jeudy is benefitting massively. At this point, Jeudy is a must-start, especially as long as Cedric Tillman remains sidelined. 

Jameis Winston: 32.98 Half-PPR Points

Speaking of Jameis, I also have to mention the man himself, who finished second to only his teammate Jeudy in fantasy scoring for Week 13. Surprisingly, given the narratives that have surrounded his brief tenure as the Browns’ starter, this was just Winston’s first top-six fantasy finish in five starts. However, it was his third finish inside the top 10 quarterbacks. He isn’t necessarily efficient, and he doesn’t add much value with his legs, but no one can match the sheer volume that Winston has been providing over the last few weeks.

Going forward, Winston has cemented himself as, at the very least, a streaming QB to consider, depending on his matchup. In Week 16, against the Bengals, he will comfortably be a top-10 option. This week against the Steelers might not be quite as pretty (he managed just 13.46 points against them in Week 12), but we know that he has the potential to explode in any given week. If you’re looking for QB help, you have to consider Winston at this point if he is still on waivers in your league. 

Bucky Irving: 26.0 Half-PPR Points

This was a massive breakout week for the rookie, as he racked up 185 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 28 touches. However, I do think we need to keep things in context when we look at this big game. Irving’s numbers jump off the page, but he was still firmly splitting the Buccaneers’ backfield with Rachaad White in Week 13. While Irving was exploding, the veteran played only one fewer snap, ran more routes, and saw 11 carries of his own.  

Going forward, Irving is still undeniably the better back to have from Tampa Bay (as he has been for a while). The Buccaneers’ schedule is also very favorable, with three of their four upcoming opponents looking very juicy, including a Week 17 rematch with the same Panthers Irving just destroyed. Just don’t be surprised if White remains frustratingly involved in this offense, limiting Irving’s ceiling and floor on a week-to-week basis.

Biggest Duds

Brock Purdy: 2.16 Half-PPR Points

I considered giving Purdy a pass due to the snowy nature of the 49ers’ Week 13 matchup, but barely over two fantasy points from a starting quarterback is simply too terrible of an outing to let slide, regardless of the circumstances. On the other hand, this game happening in a snowstorm means it’s hard to take much away from it. 

There’s a chance that Purdy is being affected by his shoulder injury, and there’s also a chance that he won’t be able to perform without Trent Williams. But it’s also entirely possible that he will return to business as usual in a more normal game environment. With that said, the 49ers’ upcoming schedule isn’t ideal, with zero above-average matchups for quarterbacks the rest of the way. If you’ve been relying on Purdy as your QB1, it’s worth looking into other options. 

Chuba Hubbard: 2.3 Half-PPR Points

Given that Hubbard was able to thrive even while the Panthers’ offense was arguably the worst in the league, it’s strange that he struggled so much in a game where they looked competent. While this game was obviously an outlier in terms of production (or lack thereof), Hubbard is trending in the wrong direction in terms of usage. 

After serving as an absolute workhorse for most of the season, Hubbard actually saw fewer expected fantasy points than Jonathon Brooks this week, 5.4 to 10.4. To be fair, that dramatically overstates the issue, as Hubbard still outsnapped his rookie teammate 55 to 14, posted a 50% route participation rate to his 12%, and saw twice as many carries. However, Hubbard still posted his lowest RB rush share since Week 2 at 67%, the first time he has fallen below 85% in the last eight weeks. Heading into a brutal matchup with the Eagles’ red-hot defense, I’d look to bench Hubbard this week and keep an eye on how he splits usage with Brooks before trusting him in Week 15.  

Breece Hall: 6.0 Half-PPR Points

Speaking of backfield usage splits, no one has been more variable in that department this season than Breece Hall. It feels as though he has alternated between being an elite bell cow and “just” an RB1-A half a dozen times this season. Week 13 was one of the RB1-A weeks, as he played just 57% of the Jets’ offensive snaps and handled only 12 carries and one target. 

There’s a decent chance this particular decrease in usage was injury-related, as Hall popped up on the injury report with a knee issue heading into Week 13. On the one hand, that could mean we should be optimistic that he will return to a full workload going forward. On the other hand, the Jets have absolutely no reason to put extra work on their young star in what is already a lost season. To be fair, they were in the same situation last year and gave him 37 carries in Week 18 — in general, trying to predict what the Jets’ coaching staff will do feels like a losing battle.

Unfortunately, this means the best approach for fantasy managers is likely to just keep starting Hall and hoping we get more of the boom weeks and less of the duds … and keep stashing Braelon Allen, regardless of whether you have Hall.

Sneaky Storylines

Aaron Jones Gets Benched

This one definitely wasn’t entirely under-the-radar, but some may have missed this development, given that Jones did return to score a game-winning receiving touchdown. But the veteran fumbled on two of his first four touches after having fumbled in each of the Vikings’ previous two games. After his second fumble, he recorded just four more touches, only two of which were carries.

While Jones was in the dog house, the Vikings leaned on Cam Akers (four carries) and Ty Chandler (two carries). This was a low-volume game overall for the Vikings’ backfield, as all three backs combined for just 11 rushing attempts, but Jones was still clearly no longer in his usual role. Going forward, there’s a chance this means nothing, especially given Jones’ late-game heroics. But the fumbling issue is just salient enough for me to bump him down my Week 14 rankings, as well as move Akers up in terms of handcuff priority. 

Jeremy McNichols Might Be Relevant

Looking at the Commanders’ final box score, Chris Rodriguez seems like the back to target behind Brian Robinson while Austin Ekeler is on IR. A sixth-round pick in the 2023 Draft, Rodriguez finished with 13 attempts on a solid 29% snap share. 

However, essentially all of Rodriguez’s work came in the fourth quarter, which was garbage time with the game in hand for the Commanders. If we look just at the first three quarters of this contest, McNichols was the Commanders’ clear RB2, with six carries (a 26% share), a 35% snap share, and a 23% route participation rate. Rodriguez has just one carry on two offensive snaps in that same time frame.

Going forward, McNichols is probably not startable, as Robinson will continue to lead this backfield. But the Commanders’ offense seems to be back to its old self, so there’s a chance the journeyman can carve out fringe flex value. At the very least, he’s the clear handcuff to have in this situation.

Other Tight Ends Tremble at Tommy’s Route Participation

In Week 13, Tommy Tremble posted a 98% route participation rate. That’s the highest route participation rate that any tight end has posted for the entire season. Unsurprisingly, that elite usage turned into decent production. He saw eight targets (a 17% share), catching five for 77 yards for 10.2 Half-PPR points. 

The only flaw with Tremble going forward is that rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders has a shot to return in Week 14. The last time both were healthy, Sanders, not Tremble, was the team’s lead receiving TE. But if Sanders is ruled out again, I will absolutely be chasing the bonkers utilization that Tremble saw on Sunday, even in a tough matchup with the Eagles’ defense.

Early DFS Plays

RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

Sometimes, you have to pay up. And I am willing to pay up for Saquon, who has averaged 27.1 Half-PPR points over his last four games and faces the best matchup for running backs in the league in Week 14. Yes, he is the most expensive RB on the slate, and it’s not particularly close. But given the very real chance he drops another 30-point week and becomes a must-have player, I’m going to do my best to get him in wherever possible. 

WR Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

He let me down massively last week, but I just can’t stop playing Calvin Ridley. His usage has been excellent for over a month now, and in Week 13 he gets an ideal matchup with the Jaguars, who lead the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers. This is an absolute smash spot for Ridley and his 27% target share/46% air yards share since Week 8. 

WR Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

With a 29% target share on Sunday, Meyers has now seen at least a 20% target share in six of his seven games without Davante Adams this season. Overall, he has a 25% target share and a 39% air yards share when serving as the Raiders’ lead WR. And, just like Ridley, he has an excellent matchup this week, facing a Buccaneers secondary that ranks second to only the aforementioned Jaguars in points allowed to opposing WRs. The Raiders will be playing from behind, and Meyers and Brock Bowers should combine for over 50% of their targets. Especially in DraftKings’ Full PPR format, I love Meyers this week.