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NFL Early Best Bets | Week 15

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Source of my betting simulations -> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

We have taken a turn for the worst on the sims, but we push on

27-15-1 Against the Spread

Week 15 Starting Bankroll $223.56
NYG +16 -112 @ $10
IND +4 -112 @ $10
GB -2.5 -118 @ $10
SF ML -148 @ $10
^parlay +1009 @ $5

Week 14 (Bankroll $290.38)
LV +7 -112 @ $20 loss
CAR +12.5 -110 @ $20 win $18.18
ATL +5 -112 @ $20 loss
TEN -3.5 -112 @$20 loss
^parlay +1194 @ $5 loss

Week 13 (Bankroll $342.52)
LV +13 -112 @ $20 win $17.86
IND -2.5 -120 @ $20 loss
SF +7 -115 @ $20 loss
^parlay +548 @ $10 loss

Week 12 (Bankroll $345.25)
TEN +8.5 -110 @ $10 win $9.09
PIT -3.5 -110 @ $20 loss
TB -6 -110 @ $20 win $18.18
^parlay +595 @ $10 loss

previous Week 11 (Bankroll $366.32)
BUF -2.0 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
ATL +2.5 -108 @ $10 loss
GB -6.5 -108 @ $10 loss
^parlay +602 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 10 (Bankroll $408.46)
Bal -6.0 -112 @ $20 loss
NE +6.0 -112 @ $20 win +17.86
DET -3.5 -108 @ $20 loss
^parlay +590 @ $20 loss

Previous Week 9 (Bankroll $322.34)
TB +8.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
NE +3.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
WSH -3.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^parlay +590 @ $10 win +59.00

Previous Week 8 (Bankroll $305.62)
IND +5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
BUF -3 -110 @ $10 win 
 +9.09
WSH +3 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

ESPN's Jamison Hensley reports the Ravens have "invested countless hours" into scouting incoming rookie kickers.
Ravens senior special teams coach Randy Brown has traveled across the country in recent weeks scouting incoming kickers as Justin Tucker's 2025 status remains in question. Sixteen massage therapists from Baltimore-area spas have accused Tucker of sexual misconduct. Tucker has denied the allegations.
(Apr 16 -- NBC Sports)

PFF s 2025 NFL Draft Show returns with Cris Collinsworth and all-star analyst lineup
PFF is back with wall-to-wall coverage of the 2025 NFL Draft streaming on YouTube, X, Fubo and Peacock.
(Apr 16 -- Pro Football Focus)

PFF s 2025 NFL Draft Show returns with Cris Collinsworth and all-atar analyst lineup
PFF is back with wall-to-wall coverage of the 2025 NFL Draft streaming on YouTube, X, Fubo and Peacock.
(Apr 16 -- Pro Football Focus)

James Bradberry to visit Bills on Wednesday
Veteran cornerback James Bradberry is in Buffalo on Wednesday.
(Apr 16 -- Yahoo Sports)

James Bradberry to visit Bills on Wednesday
Veteran cornerback James Bradberry is in Buffalo on Wednesday.
(Apr 16 -- ProFootballTalk.com)

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