NFL DFS Divisional Round Building Blocks

We have reached the Divisional Round! Normally, this is the best week of the NFL season, but this year’s installment looks slightly lackluster on paper, with three of four games having shockingly large spreads for this late in the playoffs. There are also some teams with very low totals, further limiting our options on an already limited DFS slate. With that said, we still have some of the biggest fantasy stars of the season on this slate, plus some interesting places to find value. Let’s get right into it!

Game Overviews

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Totals: Texans 16.5, Chiefs 25.5

The first of three games with a lopsided spread for this week, this matchup also has the unfortunate honor of having the lowest overall total of the week. The Chiefs are quietly tied for the third-highest total of any team on the slate, but that disgusting 16.5-point mark for the Texans is dragging this game down. A large part of this game’s attractiveness comes down to whether we expect the Chiefs’ offense to find a new gear in the playoffs or whether they will just eke out another close, ugly win.  

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud is the cheapest starting quarterback on all three sites, but I still have essentially zero interest in playing him. The Texans’ offense has been lackluster at best recently, and the Chiefs’ defense is a tough matchup. I am more interested in Patrick Mahomes, especially on DraftKings where he is priced at a solid discount from the top-tier QBs. The Chiefs’ passing offense started to show some signs of life following Hollywood Brown’s return, and we know that Mahomes usually hits an extra gear in the playoffs.

Running Backs

With so few running backs (and even fewer workhorse backs) on this slate, Joe Mixon is worth considering. With that said, this is obviously not a great spot for him against a Chiefs defense that shut down opposing running games all season. On the other side, the Chiefs’ backfield is very tough to parse. When we last saw them, Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco were locked in a near-perfect 50/50 split, with Samaje Perine mixing in on passing downs. And, if anything, Hunt looked like the better back, as Pacheco was clearly not himself in his return from injury. But there’s a chance that two weeks off will mean we see Pacheco closer to his early-season form. Both KC backs are playable, but I’m not super excited by either (except perhaps Pacheco on Yahoo). Their recent results have been mediocre, and Houston’s run defense is solid.

Wide Receivers

Even on a team with a terrible implied total, Nico Collins brings such an elite combination of volume and talent that he is absolutely in play. Behind Collins, John Metchie was the only Texans receiver to reach above a 50% route participation rate (he was at 61%) in the Wild Card round. He also benefits from a Chiefs defense that is weak against slot receivers. He’s priced up on FanDuel, but one of my favorite value plays of the week on both DK and Yahoo. For the Chiefs, the clear name to start with is Xavier Worthy. The rookie was the only receiver to play a full-time role the last time we saw KC’s offense, and he saw very solid usage down the stretch of the season. I will absolutely be playing him on all three sites, although he is priced up on Yahoo. My other favorite Chiefs receiver is Marquise (Hollywood) Brown. He posted absolutely elite per-route numbers on a limited role in his two games back from injury at the end of the season. If he expands to a full-time role, he could absolutely smash his current prices. Even if he doesn’t, he has the big-play ability to come through. DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Justin Watson (in that order) are also involved enough to consider in KC stacks, but I wouldn’t really want to play them otherwise.  

Tight Ends

I honestly really like this spot for Dalton Schultz. He is arguably the second target in the Texans’ offense behind Collins, and the Chiefs’ defense led the league in yards per game allowed to TEs. He’s cheap, too, especially on DK. Of course, Travis Kelce is also definitely in play. If last year’s playoffs are anything to go of off, his role will expand when it matters most.

Defenses

The Texans’ defense is talented enough to be worth considering on such a small slate, but I will probably do my best to land elsewhere. The Chiefs’ defense is the most expensive unit on both DK and Yahoo (second on FD), and I will actually consider paying up for once — there simply aren’t many defenses in good spots on this slate.

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions

Projected Totals: Commanders 22.5, Lions 33.5

You read that right. The Lions have a 33.5-point team total in a divisional playoff game. The Commanders’ 22.5-point total isn’t bad, but they are still massive underdogs in this one. Regardless, this is easily the game of the slate from a fantasy perspective, with options on both sides.

Quarterbacks

I love this spot for Jayden Daniels. He will have to go all out to keep up with the Lions’ offense, and Washington’s running game has been struggling enough that they will lean on his legs, too. Especially given that he is just the third-most expensive QB on the slate (except on Yahoo), the rookie is a great play this week. Jared Goff is also definitely in play. After all, he is either the fourth or fifth-most expensive QB on the slate despite having easily the highest total. Of course, the issue with Goff is that the Lions might simply rush for seven touchdowns. But they showed more of a willingness to run the score up through the air late in the season, so Goff is absolutely capable of a massive game in this spot.

Running Backs

Both Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler have struggled with efficiency lately, especially Robinson. Once we consider that this matchup also favors Ekeler’s receiving role over Robinson’s rushing workload, the veteran is definitely my preferred back from the Commanders. For the Lions, David Montgomery is back. He was a full participant in multiple practices this week and has no injury designation, so my default assumption is that he will see his usual workload. If that is true, he is an absolute smash play, especially on FanDuel, where he is priced as though he is out at the minimum. However, Jahmyr Gibbs is also still definitely in play — there are enough points to go around in this backfield. 

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin is the top receiver to consider for the Commanders, and he is absolutely in play against a beatable Lions secondary. After him, Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown posted route participation rates of 55% and 50%, respectively, in the Wild Card round. Both are viable value plays given this game environment and the lack of options on the slate, but they are risky. Expect Brown, who scored more points last week and is cheaper, to be more widely rostered. For the Lions, it’s all about Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. They are both absolutely playable, either as one-offs or as part of stacks. If you want to play another Lions receiver as a value option, Tim Patrick is the player to target.  

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz is old reliable, and he is once again in play here. He could rack up underneath targets as the Commanders play catch-up in this one. Sam LaPorta is also definitely playable, but I don’t love him. He is expensive and will be heavily rostered, and the Commanders’ defense was tough on TEs this season. He also was less involved with Montgomery healthy during the season. Of course, LaPorta could easily score two TDs and punish me for fading him, and he is absolutely a viable play. 

Defenses

The Commanders’ defense is the cheapest on the slate, but I still have very little interest in playing them. They are liable to finish with negative points in this spot. The Lions’ defense is a bit more interesting, as they could give up points but also rack up a few sacks to finish with a respectable outing. 

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Totals: Rams 18.5, Eagles 24.5

This game isn’t projected to be as lopsided as the previous two, but it still has a healthy six-point spread. it also has a relatively low 43.5-point total. We saw last week that the Eagles are willing to continue doing the absolute minimum necessary to win even in the playoffs, so how exciting this game is will likely be determined by whether the Rams can get anything going against Philadelphia’s red-hot defense. 

Quarterbacks

On a slate with only eight quarterbacks, I’m a bit tempted by Matthew Stafford’s tiny projected rostership at low prices. With that said, his chances of keeping up with all of the superweapons on this slate are low. Jalen Hurts might not quite belong in that superweapon category, but Tush Push TD equity means he is as good a threat as anyone to drop a 25-point game. He also seems to be slipping through the cracks in projected rostership, which makes him extra interesting. 

Running Backs

Kyren Williams could easily see every touch in the Rams’ backfield this week. However, he may struggle to find room to run against this Eagles defense. He’s playable, but I would proceed with caution. On the other side, Saquon Barkley is in a smash spot. With Gibbs dealing with Montgomery’s return and Derrick Henry in a tough matchup, Barkley is easily the safest pay-up RB on this slate. He can absolutely be played in any lineup where you have the cash. 

Wide Receivers

The Rams’ passing game is all about Puka Nacua. Even in a brutal matchup, he is playable — I trust Sean McVay to scheme up some looks for his top weapon. Meanwhile, Demarcus Robinson ran far more routes than Cooper Kupp last week. Kupp, whose efficiency fell off a cliff down the stretch, is only really playable if you are trying to get unique. Meanwhile, I’m a little into Robinson as a low-rostered value option, although he’s certainly risky. For the Eagles, A.J. Brown seems to be joining his QB in slipping through the cracks compared to the other top options on this slate. His floor is lower than other top-tier receivers, but his ceiling is as good as anyone’s; he is absolutely playable. DeVonta Smith is also playable, especially on DK, although he has the same concerns of low volume if the Eagles only have Jalen Hurts attempt 21 passes again. Jahan Dotson is theoretically playable as a value option, but I won’t be doing it. 

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee had already racked up five targets in one quarter before exiting the Rams’ Wild Card game with an injury. It appears he will be good to go for this one, which makes him an okay mid-range option. I’m honestly not that interested in Dallas Goedert. He’s expensive (except on DK) and just as likely to drop a volume-based dud as the Eagles’ receivers.

Defenses

The Rams’ defense has two saving graces this week: They are cheap, and Jalen Hurts takes plenty of sacks. Still, they’re also the worst defense left in the playoffs, so they’re a risky option. The Eagles’ defense is expensive but still playable.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

Projected Totals: Ravens 26.5, Bills 25.5

In terms of real-life football, this is easily the game of the week. We have two MVP candidates and arguably the two best teams in the league facing off on Sunday night. Thankfully, this matchup is also fun from a fantasy perspective, with the second-highest total on the slate. The big question is figuring out who, aside from the aforementioned quarterbacks, will do the scoring. 

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are both absolutely playable. They are the two most expensive QBs on the slate, but they both have incredibly high floors and slate-breaking ceilings. 

Running Backs

I’m honestly a little scared of Derrick Henry this week. Yes, he ran all over this Bills defense in Week 4, but we’ve seen him have down games (by his standards) when Baltimore is in competitive game scripts this season. With that said, the King is still absolutely playable. I also don’t hate the idea of squeezing in Justice Hill as a value play — he is consistently involved in the Ravens’ offense for two-minute drills and passing downs, and the Bills led the league in receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. On the Bills’ side, James Cook just keeps getting it done despite non-workhorse usage, and he represents a clear discount in salary from the top RBs on this slate, making him one of my favorite options. However, Ty Johnson is also worth considering as a value pick, as he is super cheap and should see around 40% of the Bills’ backfield touches if Ray Davis is out.

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers seems set to miss this game, leaving Rashod Bateman as the Ravens’ WR1 and one of the few solid mid-range WR options on this slate. Behind him, Tylan Wallace was the Ravens’ WR2 last week, not Nelson Agholor. Wallace is just cheap enough to be worth a dart throw, but that’s all he is. On the Bills’ side, Khalil Shakir (59%), Keon Coleman (47%), Curtis Samuel (44%), Mack Hollins (44%), and Amari Cooper (41%) all posted similar part-time route participation rates last week. Shakir is a bit expensive and will be heavily rostered given that he is not playing an every-down role, so my favorite play of the group is Coleman. The other three are viable dart throws, especially if you’re playing Allen at QB.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews is definitely playable, as he just keeps hitting the end zone. However, I prefer Isaiah Likely, who saw his usage jump up last week — the Ravens seem to be using him to fill Flowers’ underneath/YAC-heavy role. Likely is very cheap given his usage compared to other TEs on this slate. Speaking of overpriced TEs vs. their usage, we have Dalton Kincaid, who saw three targets on a 53% route participation rate last week. With that said, he is just as viable a dart throw as the Bills’ receivers, with a decent shot at scoring a TD. If you want an even cheaper dart, Dawson Knox did run just four fewer routes than Kincaid last week and see three targets of his own.

Defenses

The Ravens’ defense and the Bills’ defense both vary in salaries across the three sites. I’m not hugely interested in either, given the caliber of these offenses, but they’re both playable on a slate without many options.

Lineups

DraftKings

Cash Game

Let’s start by simply slamming in both Gibbs and Barkley at the top. They project for too many points to ignore in a cash format, and we can find the salary to get them in. In fact, let’s get started on that right away by using a double-TE build of Likely and LaPorta. Worthy and Bateman also jump out as being the WR1s on their teams at totally reasonable prices. If we then slam in Daniels as the cheapest of the big three dual-threat QBs, we are left with $9,300 for a WR spot and the DST slot. There are plenty of ways to finish things off, from paying up for the Chiefs all the way to biting the bullet with the Texans. I recommend picking your WR first and then seeing what defense you are left with. 

Tournament

I’m going to stick with Daniels again here, stacking him with McLaurin. Of course, we will want a player or two from the Lions’ side of that matchup, but I’m going to pick the secondary options in Jameson and Montgomery. Let’s also go straight back to Likely, who is simply too cheap. I also want to play Hollywood, betting that his role will expand after two weeks off to rest. If we add in Cook at RB2, we are left with a FLEX spot and DST to fill and absolutely tons of cash. Feel free to mix and match your favorite options. 

FanDuel

Cash Game

We are obviously locking in Montgomery, who is all the way down at the minimum. That’s a free square, don’t overthink it. However, I’m going to also get in Gibbs, who might go ignored by people not wanting to play two Lions running backs. While we’re at it, let’s also pay up for Barkley once again. You’d think this wouldn’t leave us with much cash, but I’m actually going to pay up for Lamar as well. We will need to save cash eventually, so let’s go back to the Likely well and also play Bateman. That just leaves two WR slots and a DST — there are all sorts of ways to make things work.  

Tournament

I’m still taking the free square on Montgomery, even for tournaments. We can get different elsewhere. In fact, let’s do it right away by building a stack of Josh Allen and Keon Coleman, without Kincaid or Cook. We’ll have Derrick Henry coming back the other way, plus Andrews this time instead of Likely. I also want to get Nico Collins into at least one lineup, so let’s play him here. However, I want to take advantage of the Chiefs’ defense not being the most expensive option on FD, so let’s play them (Nico can eat in a losing effort where the Chiefs’ defense also racks up a few sacks). Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but all that is left is two WR slots, and there are plenty of ways to make it work.

Yahoo

Cash Game

Jalen Hurts simply seems too cheap priced below both Goff and Mahomes, so I’m going to start with him at quarterback. Isiah Pacheco at only $1 more than Justice Hill is also not a price I’m going to ignore, even if I’m skeptical of him. If we add in Saquon to go with Hurts, we have captured essentially the entire Eagles’ offense, which doesn’t seem like a bad deal to me. We’ll need more value, though, so Metchie at $11 and Likely at $12 should slide right in. I’ll actually double-down on Texans receivers with Collins as well, as he is the cheapest of the top-tier WR options on Yahoo. If we play the Bills’ defense at the $10 minimum, we have a healthy $49 left for a WR and a FLEX pick. 

Tournament

It’s time for a massive Chiefs stack: Mahomes, Kelce, Hollywood, and Pacheco; let’s chuck in the Chiefs’ defense for good measure. For a bring-back, Metchie is simply too cheap to ignore. We have to use all the savings of our budget game stack, and I do plan on spending it all in one place: Gibbs, for a whopping $40. That leaves us with just $43 to fill our final WR spot and a FLEX, but there are ways to make that work. I personally am tempted by a double-TE build, but feel free to follow your heart’s desires.