NFL Showdown October 5th
10/5 NFL Showdown
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What a Monday Night treat with a doubleheader of exciting football! Did your Seasonal league team take a loss? Would you much prefer to play against the house 1-on-1 than a field of thousands? Prize Picks is the game for you!
A couple of rules. You can’t pair up a QB with their own WR or TE. Normally that is a bummer for me during single-game slates but not tonight baby!
Scoring:
1 Pt per 25 passing yards
4 Pts per passing TD
1 Pt per 10 yards rushing
1 Pt per 10 yards receiving
1 Pt per reception
6 Pt per rushing or receiving TD
-1 Pt per Interception
-1 Pt per Fumble
Let’s Break it down!
ATL (56.5 O/U)
@
GB (-6)
This game should provide more fireworks than the first game on the slate. While you’re watching to see if the NE Defense can solve Mahomes, why not take a look at the late game for some action!
The Falcons can’t hold a lead and the Packers can’t keep WRs healthy. GB is going to try to run the ball 35 times and Ryan will do his best to keep them in the game and the keep the pace high enough to exploit the GB secondary.
Matt Ryan (20.5) – projection = 312 yards and 2 TDs
The Falcons know they have to score and score and score to have a chance. If you think this game hits that Vegas total that’s 25 points to the Falcons. Ryan should have all 3 top caliber WRs back in action with Jones, Ridley, and Gage and If I had to bet I would say their 3 TDs are coming through the air. I think it’s pretty clear I am on the OVER.
Aaron Rodgers (21.8) projection = 250 yards and 3 TDs
Aaron is averaging 3 TDs a game but this game plan should see them trying to run it all night long. Adams and Lazard are out and Atlanta has not stopped the run yet this year. I’m looking for a smash game out of Aaron Jones and the Pack not needing Rodgers to manufacture the win. I’m feeling confident on the UNDER.
Julio Jones (14) projection = 7 catches for 70 yards
His strength is not the red zone, but when he is in there he regularly sees double-digit targets. If he is suiting up, I trust him to be ready to play. I’m not looking for high totals from him but I would bet his floor is 10 points in this scoring system and I would think if Atlanta is in this game it will be on the shoulders of their best player. I am taking the OVER.
Calvin Ridley (16.5) projection = 5 catches for 55 yards and a TD
That seems really low for a guy that has gotten double-digit targets and over 100 yards each week this year. But that’s what I am banking on, that the streak ends tonight. Julio is more banged up than him and I would think the Packers try to keep him in check more than Jones or Gage. However, someone has to score… and the averages say its going to be Ridley. Everything in my bones says go under…. But I think I’m over… dang. Might just avoid this altogether.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (13) projection = 4 for 90.
I’m really not feeling this. MVS isn’t built to be the main guy. He relies on attention on Adams to get open behind the safeties. He can do it any random play but I just don’t have faith in his usage. I am a solid UNDER here.
Todd Gurley (13.8) projection 60 yards and a TD on the ground with 1 catch for 8 yards.
Gurley has been non-existent in the passing game and fairly inefficient on the ground but the Packers do struggle against the run. I don’t see the Falcons focusing on the running game so if you think Gurley avoids the end zone like I do it’s a safe UNDER.
Aaron Jones (23) projection = 80 yards rushing + TD and 5 catches for 40 Yards.
The Falcons are terrible against the run, Jones is a beast and all of Green Bays WRs are hurt. I’d bet on the floor being 20 points so this is a no-brainer OVER.
Hayden Hurst (8.5) projection = 4 Catches for 45 yards.
Hooper was a huge part of this offense and I really think it’s only a matter of time before Hurst has a breakout game. With Ridley and Jones nursing injuries and Gage fresh off concussion this could set up well. One TD and he’s over. I like those odds. I’m hitting the OVER.
Robert Tonyan (9) Projection = 5 Catches for 40 yards.
I like the slow-paced game script with running and short passes to the TE. This is a really good line for him and if he doesn’t score he probably hits it right on the nose. I’m probably staying clear of this one, but whether you think he scores or not is your deciding factor.
Mason Crosby (9) Projection = 2 FG and 3 Extra Points.
I really hate predicting Kickers. If they control the game at half time he gets these points but if Atlanta scores regularly I don’t see Field Goals being a big part of the game, especially with the Atlanta kicker down with an injury. Falcons will push for TDs and GB will need to score to keep the game out of reach. I’m not going to bet this guy but kinda leaning under if you are.
Sorry I don’t dabble in IDP players so betting on Tackles is up to you!
Cheers and good luck!
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Jonny Danger
Reminder, if you set up a new account tonight and make your first deposit, not only will you get that 25% bonus but if you make a minimum $10 bet on the 4 for 4 game (not the flex) and hit all 4 in tonights NFL Matchups, show us the screenshot and we will send you $25!